MIAMI -- Before last year's championship game between the Patriots and Rams, I ranked the other 10 playoff teams that fell short of reaching Super Bowl LIII by their chances of winning Super Bowl LIV. I put the Chiefs in first place. Before the season, when all of the NFL writers here at CBS Sports were asked to make their predictions, I picked the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. At the halfway point of the season, we were asked to re-do our predictions. Once again, I picked the Chiefs. 

So with Super Bowl LIV finally here and with the Chiefs having made it to this point after a 12-4 regular season followed by an unbelievable comeback in their playoff opener against the Texans and another come-from-behind win against the Titans in the AFC Championship Game, both of which ended up being comfortable Chiefs wins despite their early deficits, I can't pick against the Chiefs now.

I've been saying since last January that the Chiefs would win Super Bowl LIV. That doesn't make me smarter than anyone else. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to predict that Patrick Mahomes, the best player in football regardless of position, would lead his team to the Super Bowl. Take a look at our staff's season predictions we all made on the eve of the season. I certainly wasn't the only prognosticator to say the Chiefs would win the Super Bowl. 

Making obvious predictions can sometimes feel boring. But that doesn't make them wrong. Ever since their exit in last season's AFC Championship Game, which came down to an overtime coin toss, the Chiefs had the look of the next Super Bowl champion. Heck, it certainly felt like if they had made it to last year's Super Bowl, they would've vanquished the Rams. They already had the head coach, quarterback, offense, and special teams required to take the next step. All they needed to do was marginally improve their defense. And that's exactly what they did under the guidance of new defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, with the arrival of Tyrann Mathieu and Frank Clark also paying huge dividends.

Now they're one win away from capturing their first Super Bowl since the 1969 season. Below, I'll explain why I think they'll beat and cover the 1.5-point spread against the 49ers.

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Chiefs vs. 49ers

Time: 6:30 p.m. TV: Fox
Spread: Chiefs -1.5 | Total: 54.5
Last week: 2-0
Playoff record: 6-4
Regular-season best-bets record: 43-41-1

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Star Wars via Giphy

Who should you back against the spread and on the money line in the Super Bowl? And what will the exact final score be? Visit SportsLine to see their latest cheat sheet, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated picks.     

I suppose we should start with the Chiefs' offense against the 49ers' defense because it's the most intriguing matchup in the game, seeing that the Chiefs have the league's third-best offense by DVOA and the 49ers have the league's second-best defense by DVOA. 

The Chiefs offense just dumped 51 on the Texans in the divisional round, scoring touchdowns on seven straight possessions to flip a 24-point deficit into a 20-point win, and 35 points on the Titans in the AFC Championship Game. It certainly feels like there isn't a defense capable of slowing down Mahomes, who is piecing together one of the best playoff runs by a quarterback in NFL history. In two games, Mahomes has completed 65.7 percent of his passes, averaged 8.8 yards per attempt, thrown eight touchdowns and zero interceptions, and accumulated a 131.5 passer rating in addition to rushing for 106 yards and a touchdown. If he finishes the job on Sunday, it'll go down the annals of all-time great postseason quarterback play.

The 49ers defense, though, will be one of the biggest challenges of Mahomes' season. The 49ers have arguably the league's best defensive front -- Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead, DeForest Buckner, and Dee Ford -- allowing them to rush only four and keep seven back in coverage. They blitzed only 20.9 percent of the time, the fourth-lowest rate in football. That's obviously important. If the 49ers can generate pressure without blitzing, they have a fighting chance. 

The problem is, Mahomes is immune to pressure. He can throw out of any platform, change his arm angle to throw around obstructions, or elude pass rushers with his athleticism. 

The 49ers defense has also struggled against mobile quarterbacks. In two games, Cardinals rookie quarterback Kyler Murray went 41 of 57 for 391 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. He also ran for 101 yards and a score. In two games, Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson went 49 of 74 for 465 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. He also ran for 82 yards. In one game, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson totaled 206 yards and two touchdowns. 

Mahomes appears to be fully recovered from the knee injury that sidelined him for two starts. He's been killing defenses with his legs in recent weeks, both as a runner and as a passer outside the pocket.  

The 49ers defense is more than just its front four, of course. Richard Sherman, the best cornerback of the past decade, remains one of the game's best cornerbacks. But this Chiefs offense is loaded with so many weapons -- from Travis Kelce to Tyreek Hill to Mecole Hardman to Damien Williams to Sammy Watkins -- that Sherman alone can't take them out of the game. 

The point I'm trying to make here is that while I know the 49ers present a sizable challenge, I'm not really sure there's a defense in football that is capable of inducing a poor performance out of Mahomes, namely because Mahomes never plays bad games. Seriously. 

Want more picks? Check out our Ultimate Super Bowl Props Guide, with 54 picks covering every aspect of the game, from the anthem to who scores first to the halftime show to how many yards the top players accrue to the MVP and more.

One problem that plagued the Chiefs during the regular season was red zone efficiency. They scored a touchdown on only 54 percent of their red-zone trips, which ranked 20th. But they've gotten that issue corrected when it matters. In two playoff games, they've scored touchdowns on nine of their 11 red zone trips.

I think the Chiefs offense will get theirs. So, it'll come down to the 49ers offense being able to keep pace.

I have my doubts. That's not intended to be a shot at the 49ers offense. 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is probably the league's second-best offensive mind behind only Chiefs coach Andy Reid. Jimmy Garoppolo isn't in the same stratosphere as Mahomes -- not many quarterbacks, if any, are. 

The running game is key, because the Chiefs defense's weakness is stopping the run. By DVOA, they're sixth against the pass and 29th against the run. But they've also improved mightily against the run over the course of the season. In their first 10 games of the season, the Chiefs allowed 5.1 yards per carry -- the 10th game was a loss to the Titans that saw Derrick Henry rumble for 188 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries. In their past eight games, including their two playoff wins, the Chiefs are allowing 4.4 yards per carry -- the eighth game was a rematch with the Titans in the AFC Championship Game that saw the Chiefs become the first team to hold Henry to under four yards per carry since the Broncos way back in Week 6.

To keep up with Mahomes, the 49ers will probably need Garoppolo to play a far bigger role than he did in their blowout win over the Packers, when he attempted eight passes all game long as Raheem Mostert ran wild for 220 yards, four touchdowns, and 7.6 yards per carry. Garoppolo has mostly played well against tough competition this season, but he'll be tested against a strong Chiefs pass defense.

I think the Chiefs are going to have chances to generate takeaways. For as good as Garoppolo was his season, he averaged an interception on 2.7 percent of his pass attempts -- only six quarterbacks posted a higher interception rate. Those six quarterbacks? Jameis Winston, Baker Mayfield, Philip Rivers, Kyle Allen, Mason Rudolph, and Sam Darnold. He didn't really have an opportunity to throw the ball to the Packers, but he did throw a brutal pick to Eric Kendricks in the second quarter of the 49ers' win over the Vikings that could've led to a game-tying touchdown if Kirk Cousins didn't miss Stefon Diggs on an easy out route. Earlier in that game, he tried to throw an interception, but Kendricks dropped it. If the Chiefs can get a lead and the 49ers are forced to let Garoppolo sling it, there will be chances for takeaways.

I guess in more simple terms, I'm taking the Chiefs to win and cover because the gap in quarterback play is too substantial. The only way I see the 49ers winning is if their defense shuts down Mahomes, but again, that almost never happens. With Mahomes as the starter in 35 games (including the postseason), the Chiefs have scored fewer than 21 points once. I'd rather bet on Mahomes doing what he always does and Garoppolo making a few mistakes as he tries to keep pace.

I don't think it'll be a blowout. The 49ers are too good to get blown out. But I do think the Chiefs will win by a touchdown.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, 49ers 24
Pick: Chiefs -1

Who should you back against the spread and on the money line in the Super Bowl? And what will the exact final score be? Visit SportsLine to see their latest cheat sheet, all from the model that is up over $7,000 on its top-rated picks.