Week 9 NFL odds, picks, TV schedule: Patriots edge Ravens to remain unbeaten, Raiders hold off Lions
The Ravens will be the Patriots biggest test of the season, but the Patriots stay unbeaten
We are officially at the halfway point of the NFL season as the calendar flips into November with the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers still the only unbeaten teams in the league. The 49ers answered the challenge with a dominating win over the Carolina Panthers last week and the Patriots will get their turn this week against the Baltimore Ravens on "Sunday Night Football."
The Patriots are facing one of the league's most dynamic quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson, who has completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 1,650 yards, 11 touchdowns and five interceptions for a 94.1 rating. He also has 83 carries for 576 yards and three touchdowns, leading the NFL with 6.9 yards per carry. Jackson, an MVP candidate, is tied with Michael Vick (2004) and Russell Wilson (2014) for the most 100-yard passing and 100-yard rushing games in a season in league history, and it took Jackson just seven games to do it. Not to mention he's coming off a bye, so the Patriots will see a fresh Jackson in their first true test of the season.
The Patriots-Ravens game is arguably the best game on the Week 9 slate. Here are this week's picks as the second half of the season gets underway:
Week 9 is here, so who's going to win and cover every game? Pete Prisco and R.J. White join Will Brinson on the Pick Six Podcast to break down their best bets, gambling and advice and more. Listen below, and be sure to subscribe here for daily NFL goodness fired into your eardrums.
San Francisco 49ers (7-0) at Arizona Cardinals (3-4-1)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox/NFL Network)
Line: 49ers -9.5
The 49ers continue to prove they are one of the best teams in the NFL, led by a dominant defense that ranked second in points (11.0) and yards allowed (224.4). They allow 4.1 yards per play, also first in the NFL as opponents have converted 27.7% of third downs against them. The 49ers will enjoy running the football against a Cardinals defense that allows 130.1 yards on the ground (25th in NFL) and 4.7 yards per carry. Expect them to carry the ball around their 38.9 carries per game average in order to wear down a Cardinals defense that allows 27.9 points (29th in NFL). The Cardinals will struggle on offense with a running game without David Johnson, Chase Edmonds and DJ Foster, as Kenyan Drake will only be on the team for a few days and not ready -- from a mental standpoint -- to carry the full load and hole up in pass protection. Arizona will be passing a lot in this one, which will immensely benefit San Francisco's defense.
Pick: 49ers 34, Cardinals 17
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Houston Texans (5-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars (4-4)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network)
Line: Texans -2
The NFL has an exciting game across the pond as the Texans and the Jaguars will square off in a pivotal AFC South matchup. Both teams are incredibly hard to figure out after the first half of the year, but this game being played at a neutral site makes it a tough one to pick. The Jaguars were a failed two-point conversion away from beating the Texans in Week 2, which was Gardner Minshew's first start. Jacksonville should be able to move the ball against a Houston defense that allows 5.9 yards per play (21st in NFL) and is dead last in opponents' red zone scoring percentage at 69.57%. They also just lost defensive leader J.J. Watt to a season-ending injury in Week 8.
Here's the Jaguars' issue, they're 30th in scoring in the red zone and have converted just 35.7% of their opportunities. Jacksonville averages 136.5 rush yards per game (fifth in NFL) and Houston allows 85.4 rush yards (also fifth). So where's the advantage in this one? Jacksonville is third in the NFL in sacks with 29. The Jaguars will get to Deshaun Watson, but will Watson make the highlight plays necessary to bail Houston out again? The Texans also never have been to London, which is where the Jaguars have an advantage in their preparation.
Pick: Jaguars 24, Texans 21
Chicago Bears (3-4) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line: Eagles -4.5
The Bears' season may be on the brink after losing to the Chargers on a missed game-winning field goal in the final seconds, a game which the offense struggled to generate points -- a problem for the Bears all season. That starts with quarterback Mitchell Trubisky, who is 15th in completion percentage (64.6), 30th in touchdown percentage (2.6), last in yards per attempt (5.6), and last in yards per completion (8.7).
There's a reason why the Bears average 4.5 yards per play and are 27th in the league in scoring (18.3 points). That feeds into an Eagles defense that plays well against poor quarterbacks, despite them giving up 7.1 yards per pass, 256.1 pass yards a game, and 16 passing touchdowns. If the Bears (83.1 rush yards per game) don't run against the Eagles defense (90.5 rush yards allowed), it will be a long day for Chicago no matter how dominant their defense is.
Pick: Eagles 26, Bears 17
Indianapolis Colts (5-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (3-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line: Even
The Steelers are coming off back-to-back wins and appear to be turning their season around which will make this matchup against the Colts interesting. Pittsburgh's defense has been holding its own, allowing 20.7 points and 336.6 yards, both among the top-15 in the NFL. That makes up for an offense that ranks 24th in the league in rushing and 26th in passing. Pittsburgh doesn't wow you with anything on the state sheet and neither does Indianapolis, so it's a tough one to pick. The Steelers have kept their quarterbacks upright, allowing just seven sacks (which is the fewest in the NFL). The Colts have just seven giveaways on the year, tied for fifth in the NFL. In a true toss-up game, expect the Colts (128.4 rush yards per game) to run the football and challenge the Steelers' run defense (one that allows 3.7 yards per carry). Marlon Mack is due for a big game.
Pick: Colts 27, Steelers 23
New York Jets (1-6) at Miami Dolphins (0-7)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line: Jets -5
Something will have to give in this game between two of the NFL's worst teams. The Jets only sold one of their players at the trade deadline while the Dolphins basically ran out of players to sell. Miami has been playing well the last two weeks in building a first half lead the last two weeks, but they haven't had the talent to compensate those early advantages. The Dolphins still average just 11 points per game and are 30th in the NFL in rush offense and pass offense.
The defense allows 34 points and 6.5 yards per play, so that's not any better. The Jets are right near the Dolphins in points (11.1) and average just 3.8 yards per play. This could be the game the Dolphins win, but the Jets have a better quarterback in Sam Darnold, even if they allowed an NFL high 34 sacks. The Jets have a good run defense (94.9 yards a game), which makes the Dolphins run offense one dimensional.
Pick: Jets 17, Dolphins 14
Minnesota Vikings (6-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line: Chiefs -2.5
Going against the Chiefs will be a tough sell now with Patrick Mahomes out (assuming he is out this week), considering the team did have 337 yards against the Packers and managed to put up 24 points in the final three quarters after a slow start. Matt Moore isn't the problem with the Chiefs, but it's their inability to run the ball. Kansas City averages just 83 rush yards per game (27th in NFL) and didn't do anything at the deadline to make the situation better. LeSean McCoy was benched for Damien Williams, but the latter has struggled this year. The Vikings average 160.1 rush yards a game and the Chiefs allow 145. The Vikings can run. The Chiefs can't. The Vikings can stop the run (89.4 yards a game) and the Chiefs can't. Think we know how the game plan will go here and who should win this one.
Pick: Vikings 31, Chiefs 27
Tennessee Titans (4-4) at Carolina Panthers (4-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line: Panthers -3.5
The Panthers couldn't have asked for a worse week after getting trounced by the 49ers and having their four-game winning streak snapped. Cam Newton also isn't coming back as Kyle Allen will remain the starting quarterback. Allen had the worst game of his short career last week, but Tennessee won't be an easy task. The Titans allow just 3.9 yards per carry which could create problems for a Panthers team that averages 5.2 yards a carry and is built behind Christian McCaffrey's success on the ground. In Week 8, McCaffrey did average over eight yards a carry, but had just 14 carries as the 49ers built an early lead and took the ground game away. That won't happen against the Titans offense, one that has failed to eclipse 300 total yards in three of the last four games. The Titans will need to run Derrick Henry into the ground (the Panthers allow 5.0 yards per carry) to have a chance.
Pick: Panthers 24, Titans 23
Washington Redskins (1-7) at Buffalo Bills (5-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line: Bills -9.5
The Bills allowed a season-high in points in a loss to the Eagles, giving up a whomping 218 yards on the ground. Fortunately for Buffalo, the Bills get to face the worst team in the NFC East this week in the Redskins. Washington has scored nine points in its last two games and is facing a Bills defense that allows 303.9 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play, both third in the NFL. Not a great formula for Washington to win this one, since the Redskins are 30th in points (12.4), yards (261.1) and 28th in yards per play 5.0). Buffalo should have its way running the football (130.4 rush yards) against a Redskins defense that has allowed 130-plus rush yards in four of the last five weeks, the lone blemish being against the Dolphins. Buffalo should easily get to 6-3.
Pick: Bills 30, Redskins 16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-5) at Seattle Seahawks (6-2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line: Seahawks -6.5
Another mismatch of the weekend, even though the Buccaneers do average 28 points per game, which is fifth in the NFL. As mentioned before, Tampa's pass defense has been its downfall. The Buccaneers allow 285.9 pas yards per game (31st in NFL) as opponents thrww 40 times a game off them, knowing that's how to score points off Tampa. Seattle may try a different approach in testing the Buccaneers No. 1 ranked rush defense as the Seahawks run the ball 31.4 times a game. Chris Carson has run for 90-plus yards in four of the past five games, which helps a Seahawks pass attack that averages 8.1 yards per pass. The Seahawks could wear down the Buccaneers defense early with the run before using Wilson to throw the ball downfield in the second half. The Buccaneers faced a tough challenge playing in Seattle, to begin with, but the Seahawks are going to test the one element that has been working on defense.
Pick: Seahawks 34, Buccaneers 28
Detroit Lions (3-3-1) at Oakland Raiders (3-4)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
Line: Raiders -2
This is one of the hardest games to pick this week thanks to the Lions and Raiders being two of the surprise teams in the NFL. The Raiders are playing their first home game in Oakland since September 15, so they'll be extra motivated after a 49-day vacation. Oakland does average 285.3 pass yards allowed per game and will face a now one-dimensional Detroit offense in the wake of Kerryon Johnson's injury, but the Lions average 7.9 yards per pass and 282.7 pass yards (both fifth in the NFL). The Raiders can counter by keeping Detroit's offense off the field by challenging the run defense, which allows 130.7 rush yards per game. Josh Jacobs has handled the heavy workload averaging 5.0 yards per carry, a good sign against a Lions defense that allows 4.7. This one is a toss-up, but the Raiders are at home and have a chance to make the AFC West race interesting. Can't see him blowing the opportunity.
Pick: Raiders 28, Lions 26
Green Bay Packers (7-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line: Packers -3
The Packers continue to prove they are one of the best teams in the NFC while the Chargers finally broke their three-game losing streak, but they still fired offensive coordinator Ken Whisenhunt in what appears to be a lost season. The biggest disappointment in the Chargers offense is averaging 69.5 yards per game on the ground with Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler, averaging 3.5 yards per carry and forcing Philip Rivers to throw the ball 38.2 times a game. The Chargers will have to run the ball against a Packers defense that allows 4.8 yards per carry if they want to pull off the upset. The Chargers defense as a top-15 unit, but allows 7.9 yards per pass. That's going to be a problem against a Packers offense that averages 7.7 yards per pass. Green Bay can also run on Los Angeles too if the Packers allow Aaron Jones and his 5.0 yards per carry to get 20 touches. This is a game the Packers should win.
Pick: Packers 30, Chargers 20
Cleveland Browns (2-5) at Denver Broncos (2-6)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Line: Browns -3
The Browns are too talented to lose to a Broncos team that won't have Joe Flacco -- right? Quarterback Brandon Allen has never played a regular season NFL game and will be facing a Browns defense that has 22 sacks on the season. Not a great sign for an offensive line that has allowed 27 sacks, tied for sixth-most in the NFL. Not even Cleveland, a team that leads the league in with 70 penalties and is second in giveaways, can find a way to lose this game. The Browns offensive line, which has allowed 21 sacks, isn't better either. Cleveland does lead the NFL in yards per carry at 5.6 and giving the ball to Nick Chubb will be vital against a Denver defense that allows just 5.1 yards per play. The Browns won't be able to pass off the Broncos (194.8 pass yards allowed per game), so establishing the run is vital. Expect a defensive slugfest.
Pick: Browns 19, Broncos 14
New England Patriots (8-0) at Baltimore Ravens (5-2)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Line: Patriots -3.5
This is the most exciting game on the Week 9 slate as the Patriots will face their biggest test of the season in Baltimore. The Ravens have a rush offense that can test the Patriots, leading the league averaging 204.1 rush yards per game. Baltimore has allowed 5.5 yards per carry, which can break down a Patriots defense that allows 4.6 yards per carry (21st in the NFL). That number is un-Patriot like considering the Patriots allow just 7.6 points a game and opponents have just converted 15.62% against them on third down. If Baltimore can establish the run and complete their season average of 47.25% on third down against the Patriots, they can pull off the upset. Why will the Patriots stay unbeaten? They average 274.6 pass yards a game and Baltimore allows 7.4 yards per pass. If the Patriots can stop the run, they'll force Lamar Jackson to throw the football -- a disaster against as pass defense that allows just 4.4 yards per pass. They'll throw the ball off Baltimore and take the run away.
Pick: Patriots 27, Ravens 24
Dallas Cowboys (4-3) at New York Giants (2-6)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Line: Cowboys -7
The Cowboys are coming off their bye week and facing a team they haven't lost to since December of 2016. So why pick against them now on 15 days rest? Dallas leads the NFL in yards per game (437.9) and is facing one of the worst defenses in the NFL ranking 28th in yards allowed at 386.8. Dallas should feed Ezekiel Elliott early and ofter as the Cowboys are fourth in the 4.9 yards per carry. Even though the Giants allow just 4.0 yards per carry, the Cowboys offense is at its best when Elliott gets the ball early and sets up the play action pass for Dak Prescott. Dallas will get its chances to throw the football against a team that allows 8.5 yards per pass and has trouble covering Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup. The Cowboys should run away with this one.
Pick: Cowboys 37, Giants 21
Bye Week: Atlanta Falcons, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints
KERR'S RECORD (Week 8): 13-2
KERR'S RECORD (Overall): 77-43-1 (.636 win percentage)
















