Serie A Champions League race, scenarios for European qualification: What Inter, Milan, Roma need to qualify

Napoli are the only side that secured a spot for the next season

By Francesco Porzio

May 19, 2023 at 12:34 pm ET • 5 min read

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With three games left to be played, the Champions League race is more entertaining than ever this season in the Serie A (and you can catch all the action on Paramount+ and CBS Sports Golazo Network). In fact, there are currently six teams involved for three spots, and none of them have a guaranteed spot to play the major European competition next year. Only Napoli, who were officially crowned as the new Serie A champions at the beginning of May, can be sure to play Champions League soccer next year. Also, considering that the Italian teams will be part of all the three European finals this year, this might have an impact on the qualifications for the next editions of the cups. Let's take a look at all the scenarios.

How Cup competitions impact the race

Three Italian teams will play the European finals this season. Inter will face Manchester City in the Champions League final on June 10, AS Roma will play against Sevilla in the Europa League final on May 31 and Fiorentina will face West Ham for the Conference League title on June 7. The outcome of these three games will also affect the top four race, considering that who wins the Champions League and the Europa League will automatically play the next edition of the Champions League, while if Fiorentina win the Conference League will have the possibility to play the Europa League next year.

There are some basic rules to determine European qualification. Losing the finals won't give to the teams the right to play European soccer next year, no more than seven teams per league can play in the cups, expect if Fiorentina win the Conference League and do not win the Coppa Italia final against Inter on May 24.

The seventh place team in the Italian league qualifies for the Conference League only if Inter win the Coppa Italia final, but if Fiorentina win the competition they would then qualify for the Europa League that way and in that case, the sixth placed in the league will play the UEFA Conference League. There is also a scenario where the fourth placed team won't play the Champions League next season, but it's very unlikely. For that to happen both Inter and AS Roma have to win the European cups and not end up in the top four in the Serie A this year.

How Italy can have eight teams in European competitions

There's one scenario where Italy will get an extra team. If Roma finish outside the top four, but win the Europa League, they will qualify for the Champions League giving Italy five teams there. Then, if Fiorentina win the Europa Conference League but DON'T win the Coppa Italia final they will qualify for the Europa League that way alongside the first team beside Roma to finish outside the top four. And then, finally, the next highest ranking team in the table will play in the Conference League.

AS Roma's crucial role

In the event that Fiorentina lose in the Conference League final, then everything comes down to AS Roma who reached their second European final in a row after beating Bayer Leverkusen in the UEFA Europa League semifinals. Last season, Jose Mourinho's team won the UEFA Conference League and managed to win the first ever UEFA trophy in the history of the Italian club. The Portoguese coach will also manage his sixth ever European final, after winning all of them up to now. In fact, Mourinho won twice in the Europa League (with Porto and Manchester United), twice the Champions League (Porto and Inter), and the Conference League with AS Roma. The Giallorossi will definitely focus on winning the Europa League, as this is their biggest chance to qualify for the Champions League this season, as they are six points behind the top four with three games left to play.

Roma's final against Sevilla will also determine a lot of the European spots for next season. Let's take a look to the scenarios:

If Roma win the UEL final and finish fifth

Five teams will play Champions League soccer (top four and AS Roma)
One team will play the Europa League (Fiorentina if they win Coppa Italia or sixth place)
One team will play the Conference League

If Roma win the UEL final and finish sixth

Also, Fiorentina must win the Coppa Italia or end up seventh and Inter win the Coppa Italia
Five teams will play Champions League soccer (top four and AS Roma)
Two teams will play the Europa League (Fiorentina if they win Coppa Italia or fifth and sixth place)
No team will play the Conference League

If Roma win the UEL final and finish seventh

Also, Fiorentina must win the Coppa Italia
Five teams will play Champions League soccer (top four and AS Roma)
Two teams will play the Europa League (Fiorentina and fifth placed)
One team will play the Conference League (sixth placed)

If Roma lose the UEL final and finish outside the top four

Top four make Champions League
Fifth and sixth make Europa League (unless Fiorentina win Coppa Italia then they get a Europa League spot)
Seventh goes to Conference League (unless Fiorentin win Coppa Italia and then sixth gets the Conference League spot

Will Juventus be sanctioned again?

Another big topic is the one about Juventus. The Bianconeri should end up in the top four, but might be sanctioned again after the Italian Olympic Committee, Collegio di Garanzia, the highest sporting court in Italy, announced it has decided to overturn the punishment for financial rules violations from the Italian FA (FIGC) announced back in January, though the case is not over. The committee partially agreed with Juve's appeal and postponed a final decision to the Italian FA appeals court (Corte d'Appello) to reconsider the case, which is expected to take place at the end of May. It's not clear yet how many points Juventus will have deducted, but this decision might also influence the table and the race for the top four, especially after Allegri's side was eliminated by Sevilla in the Europa League semifinals.

The current table

2. Juventus, 69 points (+26 GD)
3. Inter, 66 points (+29 GD)
4. Lazio, 65 points (+26 GD)
5. Milan, 61 points (+14 GD)
6. Roma, 59 points (+12 GD)
7. Atalanta, 58 points (+14 GD)