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  • expert headshot
    Larry Hartstein
    #4
    +786
    (66%)
    21-11 in Last 32 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    J. Warren
    Over 63.5
    -115
    Rushing Yards
    WIN
    Picked: Oct 20 @ 12:46am

    Analysis

    Jaylen Warren was held to 50 yards on 14 carries by the Bucs' elite rush defense. He should go off against a Saints' defense that ranks last in rushing EPA and success rate allowed. New Orleans gives up 4.8 yards per carry and isn't expected to have linebacker Kaden Elliss (calf) in the lineup. Even with Rico Dowdle back, Warren -- who averages 5.5 yards per carry -- should get around 15 totes and clear this number.
  • expert headshot
    Will Brinson
    +66
    (53%)
    9-8 in Last 17 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    J. Warren
    Over 61.5
    -113
    Rushing Yards
    WIN
    Picked: Oct 23 @ 10:07am

    Analysis

    Jaylen Warren has been unbelievable the last month of the season, with the only real exception being last week, when he was stuffed on the ground by a strong Bucs run defense. Now he gets an absolute run funnel in the Saints in the early international game, with New Orleans having given up monster games to virtually every primary back they've faced. This number is suppressed by last week's outing and Rico Dowdle's return, but I'm guessing in this spot we'll see Mike McCarthy continue to feed his "featured" guy in Warren. This number is several yards lower than the rest of the market, too.
  • expert headshot
    Adam Thompson
    +426
    (65%)
    11-6-1 in Last 18 NFL Picks
    PIT -3
    -115
    Spread
    WIN
    Picked: Oct 23 @ 10:56am

    Analysis

    The Steelers thrive when opposing teams can't stop the run. Jaylen Warren can get it going vs. a Saints D that's 30th in rush yards allowed and allows 4.8 yards per attempt. That sets up Aaron Rodgers to have a big day. Then the Steelers' defense can limit Tyler Shough, who's managed only 240 pass yards the last two weeks combined.
  • expert headshot
    David Bearman
    +913
    (73%)
    16-6 in Last 22 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    J. Warren
    Over 61.5
    -113
    Rushing Yards
    WIN
    Picked: Oct 23 @ 11:46am

    Analysis

    Even with Rico Dowdle returning last week, Jaylen Warren still had a 75% snap share and outrushed Dowdle 14-to-7 vs. a tough Buccaneers' rush defense. Now Warren gets the Saints, who have allowed the third-most rushing yards at 138.8 per game and have allowed Jahymr Gibbs (156), Derrick Henry (68), Bijan Robinson (145), and Aaron Jones (113) to all exceed this line.
  • expert headshot
    Megan Shoup
    +95
    (60%)
    3-2 in Last 5 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    A. Rodgers
    Over 1.5
    -105
    Pass TDs
    LOSS
    Picked: Oct 23 @ 3:56pm

    Analysis

    With 11 passing touchdowns in the last four games, Aaron Rodgers has thrown multiple touchdowns in four games in a row. Even though this is a great running game matchup for the Steelers, I don't think the Steelers will lose their identity here. The Saints are a good matchup for Rodgers and the Steelers' passing game too. The Steelers have thrown at a high rate this season and are 4th in pass rate over expectation. And I don't think we should forget that Rodgers is playing for his lasting legacy too. He needs 25 passing touchdowns to pass Drew Brees, to be 2nd all-time in passing touchdowns (regular & postseason). Rodgers can always call his own number if you know what I mean.

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