SEC odds, picks for Week 10: Head and heart collide predicting Alabama-LSU

Point spreads, game picks and predictions for every SEC college football game in Week 10

Picking college football games against the spread is a battle we are all destined to lose at some point. Even the sharpest sharps go cold and those stone-cold locks will break the other way when you are relying on the action of 18-to-22 year-olds exerting themselves physically over a 3-4 hour weekend window. Trends, intimate knowledge of the rosters, schemes and latest news can improve your shot at making winning picks, but sometimes you just have to follow your gut with these things.

Sometimes I'm right. I can also be wrong, of course, but I'm going to be here every Wednesday with picks against the spread for the entire SEC slate. Expect some ATS trends to sway my judgment as much as inside information or the old-fashioned hunch.

Last week: 3-2 | 2016 SEC season: 32-36 (47 percent)

Ole Miss (-27.5) vs. Georgia Southern: This isn't the same giant-killing Georgia Southern team that SEC fans have feared in the past. The Eagles have fought for narrow wins against New Mexico State and Louisiana-Monroe, got totally shut down by rival Appalachian State and are on a six-game streak of failing to cover the spread. Ole Miss might be reeling, but not enough to forget how to hang 50 on a Sun Belt team. Pick: Rebels -27.5

Texas A&M (-13.5) at Mississippi State: A sleepy start in Davis Wade Stadium allows Nick Fitzgerald to catch Texas A&M off guard for an early scoring drive, throwing off the math in what is sure to be a close game against the number. There is no doubt that Texas A&M wins the game, but an early roadie in division play right after a No. 4 ranking from the College Football Playoff Selection Committee seems ripe for an early deficit and 10-point win. Pick: Bulldogs +13.5

Vanderbilt at Auburn (-26): While Kamryn Pettway has deservedly captured much of the attention during Auburn's winning streak, the continued physicality and impressive play from the defensive front remains the reason to like Auburn as a threat to anyone in the country (including Alabama). Vanderbilt gets caught in molasses playing teams with good defensive lines, unable to spring Ralph Webb forward for that wickedly consistent 4.0 yards per carry average. So what do we make of this huge line? The over/under is in the mid-40s, so it's clear there is some respect for Vanderbilt's defense being disciplined against the run. That discipline keeps the game low-scoring and the margin within 24 points. Pick: Commodores +26

Florida (-5.5) at Arkansas: When Arkansas' offense doesn't have balance, Austin Allen gets eaten alive. If the Gators take care of business, Rawleigh Williams will be bottled up just like Nick Chubb was last week in Jacksonville and Allen will be pressured just like Jacob Eason. That will leave Allen to test the best secondary in the country under pressure in third down situations, which should lead to field position advantages that power a Florida win. Pick: Gators -5.5

Missouri at South Carolina (-7): Missouri's not a good football team right now, and while South Carolina might be ripe for a letdown after last week's upset win against the Vols, it's still a more confident pick than talking myself into the Tigers. Beamer...Benz...JAKE BENTLEY. Pick: Gamecocks -7

Georgia (-2) at Kentucky: The Bulldogs' rushing attack was firing blanks against Florida, failing to get Nick Chubb and/or Sony Michel rolling against Jarrad Davis and that nasty Gators defensive front. Eason needs that balance to help open up the offense and the play-action passing game, and without it, he's a sitting duck on third down. Kentucky's defense is a major drop-off from where Florida is, and I think you'll see more free range Georgia runners this week. Pick: Bulldogs -2

Alabama (-7.5) at LSU: There are a couple places where this game, particularly against the number, will be decided. If LSU can create points off of Alabama turnovers twice, scoring at least one touchdown, it will probably cover and definitely have a chance to win. Even if LSU doesn't get any points off turnovers, it can still be in position to cover and possibly win as long as it doesn't give up any turnovers of its own that lead to points.

There's no margin for error. LSU needs breaks to cover this spread and needs damn near every break to pull off the win. The Tigers may be one of the only teams in the country that can match the talent and physicality of the Tide in the trenches, but do they have the depth to withstand four quarters of that Alabama rushing attack? Slow, close game gets broken open late in a 10-14 point win for Alabama. Pick: Crimson Tide -7.5