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USATSI

The first AFC East division battles take place this weekend, with the New York Jets hosting the Buffalo Bills and the New England Patriots facing the Miami Dolphins. The Bills were the only AFC East squad to pick up a Week 1 victory, doing so in dramatic fashion on Sunday night over the Baltimore Ravens. Josh Allen had a monster effort against the Ravens that vaulted him to the top of MVP odds. Is he in for another strong performance against the Jets?

The SportsLine projection model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and has graded individual player props on a 0 through 5 star scale based on each player's average across the simulations. We'll also share an anytime touchdown wager that we believe has value. So which player props should you target for Bills vs. Jets?

If you're new to NFL betting or need a refresher, make sure to check out our NFL betting guide with the season having just kicked off.

We'll be using odds from DraftKings Sportsbook to look at our top props for this game. Check out the SportsLine Projection Model's forecast for the entire Bills-Jets game, including more player props.

Top Bills vs. Jets props:

  • Josh Allen Under 231.5 passing yards (3.5 stars)
  • Justin Fields Under 183.5 passing yards (3.5 stars)
  • Joshua Palmer anytime touchdown +360

Josh Allen Under 231.5 passing yards (3.5 stars)

The SportsLine Projection Model has Allen throwing for 229.6 yards, making Under 231.5 passing yards a 3.5-star play. Allen has averaged just 199.8 passing yards in his past five matchups against teams with losing records, going Under this prop in four of those contests.

Justin Fields Under 183.5 passing yards (3.5 stars)

The model calculated Fields for 140.6 passing yards after 10,000 simulations against the Bills, which also makes this a 3.5-star play. The Bills' run defense was gashed for 238 yards against the Ravens, so Fields may not have to rely on his arm so much if the Jets can replicate a similar formula.

Joshua Palmer anytime touchdown +360

I don't understand why the gap is so big between Palmer and fellow Bills wideouts Khalil Shakir (+165) and Keon Coleman (+175). Coleman led the Bills with 11 targets and scored a touchdown, but Shakir and Palmer each finished with nine targets apiece. Sauce Gardner is a tough matchup on the outside whenever he's covering Coleman or Palmer (an advantage for Shakir), but the rest of the Jets' secondary looked vulnerable against the Steelers. Palmer also made the key late catch to get the Bills in scoring position for the game-winning field goal. I think Allen trusts him already and he'll get more looks on Sunday.