Chiefs vs. Chargers odds: Everything you need to crush your NFL picks on Friday

The SportsLine Projection Model has revealed its Kansas City vs. Los Angeles picks on Friday from Sao Paulo, Brazil

By Owen OBrien

Sep 5, 2025 at 5:39 pm ET • 3 min read

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The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers will open their 2025 NFL seasons in Sao Paulo, Brazil, on Friday. Chargers vs. Chiefs marks the second straight season the NFL will play a Week 1 Friday night game in Brazil. The Chiefs enter after winning their fifth AFC Championship over the last six years. However, Kansas City lost 40-22 to the Eagles in the big game after a 15-2 season. The Chargers went 11-6 and lost to the Texans, 32-12, in the Wild Card round last year.

Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on Friday from Neo Química Arena in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The Chiefs are favored by 3 points in the latest Chargers vs. Chiefs odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, with the over/under set at 47.5 points. Before making any Chiefs vs. Chargers picks, make sure you check out the NFL picks from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model went 31-15 on top-rated picks in 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has zoned in on Chiefs vs. Chargers. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Chargers vs. Chiefs:

Chiefs vs. Chargers spread	Chiefs -3 at FanDuel Sportsbook
Chiefs vs. Chargers over/under	47.5 points
Chiefs vs. Chargers money line	Kansas City -166, Los Angeles (A) +140

Here are SportsLine model's best bets for Chargers vs. Chiefs:

Chargers +3
Under 47.5 points

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Chargers +3

The Chargers covered this number in one of their two meetings against the Chiefs last season, and had a chance to defeat Kansas City in the other matchup before allowing a fourth-quarter touchdown in a 17-10 loss. The Chargers lost their second contest to Kansas City, 19-17, on a 31-yard Chiefs field goal as time expired. Teams that lost in the previous year's Super Bowl don't have a successful track record in their ensuing Week 1 openers, going 11-14 straight-up and 6-19 against the spread in those contests since 2000, as there could be a Super Bowl hangover. The Chargers, led by Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey, plus additions like Keenan Allen and Omarion Hampton, cover the spread in 50% of the model's simulations.

Under 47.5 points

The Chiefs and Chargers combined to average 31.5 points in their two head-to-head matchups last season, going significantly Under 46.5 points in each game. Both teams had top-six ranked scoring defenses last year, with the Chargers ranking second at 18.5 points per game allowed, and the Chiefs sixth at 20.5 ppg allowed. Both defenses figure to be strong units again this season, with two teams and personnel that know each other well. They have gone Under this number in three of four games over the last two seasons, and the model expects that trend to continue, with the Under hitting in 63% of simulations.