Chiefs vs. Jaguars: Best NFL player props for Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence in Week 5 MNF
We'll look at the best prop recommendations for both quarterbacks according to the SportsLine Projection Model
Monday Night Football in Week 5 of the 2025 NFL season takes us to Jacksonville where the Jaguars will host the Kansas City Chiefs. Both teams are looking for their third win in a row, with the Chiefs most recently taking down the Ravens 37-20 and the Jaguars topping the 49ers 26-21. This game will feature two-time league MVP Patrick Mahomes and former No. 1 overall pick Trevor Lawrence at the quarterback position in a pivotal season for both players, albeit for different reasons. We'll look at some popular player prop markets for Mahomes and Lawrence, along with recommendations from SportsLine's projection model.
The SportsLine Inside the Lines team model provides game forecasts and prop recommendations for Chiefs vs. Jaguars, simulating the matchup 10,000 times. The Chiefs are 3.5-point favorites in the latest SportsLine consensus odds. You can find the model's latest projections, expert picks and prop recommendations at SportsLine.
We'll be using DraftKings Sportsbook for Mahomes and Lawrence props. If you're looking to get into NFL betting, check out our betting guide here.
Passing yards props
Patrick Mahomes: 248.5 (Over -111, Under -113)
Trevor Lawrence: 214.5 (Over -111, Under -113)
Top pick: Trevor Lawrence Under 214.5 yards (4 stars)
The SportsLine consensus line for Lawrence is 219.5 passing yards but the model is projecting him to accumulate just 192.5 yards through the air against Kansas City. The Chiefs have been excellent at defending the pass, ranking seventh in passing yards allowed per game. Lawrence has topped 214.5 yards in two of the four games this season.
Passing attempts props
Patrick Mahomes: 36.5 (Over -109, Under -117)
Trevor Lawrence: 33.5 (Over -115, Under -111)
Top pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 attempts (4 stars)
Despite ranking fourth in scoring defense and leading the league in turnovers forced, the Jaguars have been susceptible to breaking down in pass defense. They rank 23rd in passing yards allowed per game and now go up against one of the more prolific quarterbacks in league history. Mahomes has attempted 37 or more passes in three of the four games this season, hitting exactly 37 attempts in each of the last two contests. The model projects him for 37.7 attempts on Monday night.
Passing touchdowns props
Patrick Mahomes: 1.5 (Over -147, Under +115)
Trevor Lawrence: 1.5 (Over +123, Under -157)
Top pick: Trevor Lawrence Under 1.5 pass TDs (3 stars)
Lawerence isn't expected to throw the ball much according to the SportsLine model, so it makes sense for him to go Under 1.5 passing touchdowns. The Jaguars quarterback has tossed two or more touchdowns in just one game this season.
