MLB picks: Padres vs. Mets prediction, props, best bets for Tuesday, September 16
The Mets are in danger of missing the playoffs, but can they improve their chances with a win over the Padres? Check out the best bets for Padres vs. Mets
The New York Mets are clinging onto the third and final National League wild card spot, as they're 1.5 games ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks heading into Tuesday's slate. The Mets snapped an eight-game skid on Sunday with a win over the Texas Rangers and will look to keep the momentum going with a three-game set against the San Diego Padres. The Padres hold the second NL wild card spot, as they're four games behind the Chicago Cubs and five games ahead of the Mets. The two contenders will both aim to improve their playoff positioning at Citi Field on Tuesday, Sept. 16, at 7:10 p.m. on TBS.
Those interested in MLB betting can get the latest Padres vs. Mets odds, projections and picks from the SportsLine Inside the Lines team's model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. The model enters Week 26 of the 2025 MLB season with a profitable 34-27 on top-rated MLB money line picks. You can find the model's latest projections and expert picks for Padres vs. Mets at SportsLine.
It's a battle between former New York Yankees pitchers at Citi Field on Tuesday, with the Padres sending out Michael King (4-2, 2.87 ERA) while Clay Holmes (11-8, 3.75 ERA) gets the nod for the Mets. King returned last Tuesday from a month-long absence due to left knee inflammation and allowed two earned runs in five innings against the Cincinnati Reds. Holmes has had a rough September so far, allowing seven runs (six earned) in 8 2/3 innings over two outings this month, where he was the losing pitcher in each start.
FanDuel Sportsbook has King's strikeout prop at 4.5 strikeouts (Over -114, Under -114), while Holmes resides at 3.5 (Over +118, Under -158). The Inside the Lines team's model has awarded a 5-star rating on King Over 4.5, with that projection coming in at 6.2 strikeouts.
Mets sluggers Pete Alonso (+330) and Juan Soto (+420) have the shortest odds to hit a home run at Citi Field on Tuesday. They're followed by a four-way tie for third at +520 with two from each team—Francisco Lindor and Francisco Alvarez for the Mets along with Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado for the Padres.
Here are the Inside the Lines team's model projections for Padres vs. Mets on Tuesday:
SAN DIEGO PADRES at NEW YORK METS | 9/16 | 7:10 p.m. ET
Money line
Pick: Mets -124
New York wins in 53% of simulations
Run line
Pick: Mets +1.5 (-178)
New York covers in 69% of simulations
Over/Under
Pick: Over 8 (-105)
The Over hits in 55.7% of simulations
Projected score: Mets 4.8, Padres 4.7
