NFL predictions: How Chargers vs. Texans impacts AFC playoff bracket according to model
The SportsLine Inside the Lines team and Projection Model say the loser of Saturday's matchup may actually be the winner in the long run
Officially, the NFL playoffs do not begin until Jan. 10. But don't tell that to coach DeMeco Ryans, whose Houston Texans face the Los Angeles Chargers on Saturday at SoFi Stadium.
"Right now, this is a playoff game versus the Chargers," he said during his weekly Wednesday press conference. "We know they have a lot to play for. We have a lot to play for. How else would you want it?"
There is certainly much riding on Saturday's matchup. The game features two of the hottest teams in the league. The Chargers (11-4) have won four in a row and seven of their last eight and are still in the hunt for the AFC West title as well as the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC playoffs. Meanwhile, the Texans (10-5) are on a NFL-best seven-game winning streak and can clinch a spot in the postseason with a win or tie (or a Colts loss or tie on Sunday to the Jaguars). Houston also could win its division but needs an unlikely loss by Jacksonville this week or next.
But according to the SportsLine Inside the Lines team and Projection Model, the loser of Saturday's game could actually come out as the winner in the long run.
The winner of Saturday's game has a good shot of being the top wild card team in the AFC, if not a division champion. That team would have a wild card round matchup against the worst division champion, which figures to be either the Steelers (9-6) or Ravens (7-8). Meanwhile, the loser of Saturday's game would face, if the current standings hold, either the Patriots (12-3) or Jaguars (11-4) on the road.
But the model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, has both Pittsburgh and Baltimore higher than New England and Jacksonville in its power ratings.
| AFC rank | Team | Neutral win% |
| 1 | Bills | 63.10% |
| 2 | Texans | 61.20% |
| 3 | Broncos | 60.60% |
| 4 | Ravens | 57.80% |
| 5 | Steelers | 57.10% |
| 6 | Patriots | 56.60% |
| 7 | Jaguars | 56.10% |
| 8 | Chargers | 55.90% |
Los Angeles is a 1.5-point favorite over Houston in the latest odds from DraftKings.
Saturday's game is a rematch of a wild card playoff game last season, which the Texans won 32-12. In that game, Houston intercepted Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert four times, which was one more interception than he had thrown all regular season.
This year, the Texans feature the No. 1 scoring defense in the NFL at 16.6 points per game. They will go up against a makeshift Los Angeles offensive line that will be missing its starting tackles.
"This is where you want to be in December," Ryans says. "You want to be playing meaningful games, and that is what this team has earned."
