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The BetMGM bonus code CBSSPORTS was built for NFL betting, with new users receiving up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses or $150 in bonus bets if your first bet of $10 or more wins depending on where they live. The Week 4 NFL schedule includes stellar late-window matchups, including Rams vs. Colts at 4:05 p.m. ET, Raiders vs. Bears at 4:25 p.m. ET and Cowboys vs. Packers on Sunday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. ET.

Picks from both of all three of those games are among our Week 4 NFL best bets on BetMGM Sportsbook today from the SportsLine Projection Model. Click here to get the newest BetMGM bonus code and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model went 39-19 on top-rated picks in 2024. Anybody following its NFL betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Best Sunday Week 4 NFL picks at BetMGM Sportsbook

  • Colts money line vs. Rams (+155)
  • Bears +1.5 vs. Raiders (-110)
  • Over 46.5 points: Cowboys vs. Packers (-115)

Combining the model's three picks into a Sunday NFL parlay at BetMGM would result in a payout of +810 (risk $100 to win $810). Bet it at BetMGM here:

Colts money line vs. Rams (+155)

We've seen former top picks like Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold completely rejuvenate their careers with the right change of setting in recent years and it looks like Daniel Jones could be continuing the trend. After six lackluster years with the Giants, Jones is averaging 9.3 yards per pass attempt and has accounted for 871 total yards and six total touchdowns while leading Indianapolis to a 3-0 start. Meanwhile, the Rams are coming off a collapse last week against the Eagles and have a divisional game (49ers) looming on Thurdsay. The model says the Colts win in 44% of simulations, but the odds imply a 38.9% win probability.

Bears +1.5 vs. Raiders

It was mostly doom and gloom in Chicago after the Bears blew a double-digit fourth-quarter lead against the Vikings in Week 1 and then got blown out 52-21 by the Lions in Week 2. However, Caleb Williams turned in an NFC Offensive Player of the Week-winning performance in a 31-14 win over the Cowboys last week and suddenly things are looking up again. Meanwhile, the early trend has been the opposite for Las Vegas, which looked dynamic offensively in Week 1 but stalled out in back-to-back double-digit losses. Chicago covers the spread in 57% of the model's simulations.

Over 46.5 points: Cowboys vs. Packers

A lot of attention will be on Micah Parsons here and he's a solid bet to have a major impact, but if you're playing the total you won't want to forget how bad the Cowboys have been since shipping the star edge rusher to Green Bay. Dallas couldn't stop the Philadelphia running game when it mattered in Week 1 and then gave up 68 points and 891 yards of total offense combined in Weeks 2 and 3 against the Giants and Bears. Meanwhile, the Packers defense has been great but the Cowboys offense has moved the ball effectively against everybody they've played so far. The model says this over hits 57% of the time.

Want more NFL picks for Sunday, September 28?

You've seen some of the model's Sunday NFL best bets. Now, get against the spread, total and money-line picks for every NFL game on the schedule, all from the model that's simulated every game 10,000 times. 

Also at SportsLine:

You can also see Sunday MLB picks from legendary handicapper Bruce Marshall, who is 166-146-3 (+3522) over his last 315 MLB picks. See his best bets right here.