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Friday features three WNBA clashes, as two top playoff contenders meet in the Big Apple when the Phoenix Mercury visit the New York Liberty at 7:30 p.m. ET, the Las Vegas Aces face the WNBA-leading Minnesota Lynx at 7:30 p.m. ET, and the Dallas Wings take on the Golden State Valkyries in the late game of the day.

If you're interested in WNBA betting and WNBA player props at the best betting sites for Friday, July 25, then make sure to see today's WNBA best bets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Today's WNBA picks:

  • Breanna Stewart Under 6.5 rebounds +100 (1.5 units, FD)
  • Jonquel Jones Over 6.5 rebounds -152 (0.5 units, FD)
  • Jones 8+ rebounds +122 (0.25 units, FD)
  • Valkyries -3.5 -110 (1 unit, FD)

Liberty rebounding props

this line has shifted a bit since the bet was made, but I was stunned to find Stewart Under was plus money (it's now -112 on FanDuel) considering I think 6.5 is a pretty high line already. As a result, this is my biggest WNBA player prop bet so far this season.

Stewart rebounding props have a simple handicap -- Jonquel Jones. When Jones plays, Stewart averages 4.8 rebounds per game. When Jones is out, Stewart averages 8.3. It's unlikely Jones will have a full workload tonight as it's her second game back from an ankle injury, but she did play for 23 minutes on Tuesday against Indiana. If Jones plays around that same amount of minutes on Friday, it should impact Stewart's potential rebounding production. After all, Stewart had just four boards in that Fever game. 

The Liberty have played the Mercury twice this season and were without Jones for basically seven of those eight quarters due to that ankle injury. In the game against Phoenix that Jones left early in the second quarter after suffering the injury, Stewart finished with three rebounds in 37 minutes. In the game against the Mercury that Jones missed, Stewart grabbed five rebounds in 31 minutes. 

I also added a half unit on Jones Over 6.5 rebounds (which is now 8.5 on FanDuel) because I think this was adjusted too far (same with Stewart's rebounding prop) to account for her playing fewer minutes. I don't love laying -154 (Over 8.5 is now 125 and Under is -104), but outside of games she's left due to injury, Jones has grabbed at least seven rebounds in every game she played this season. And in in five of those eight games, Jones played no more than 25 minutes (three were Liberty blowouts, two were the first games back from injury), and she had at least nine rebounds in four of those games.

In the game where Jones left early against the Mercury, she grabbed four rebounds in nine minutes. Phoenix is not a great rebounding team. The Mercury are tied for eighth in rebounding percentage (48.8%) and 10th in offensive rebounding percentage (28.2%). The Mercury also shoot the second-most 3-pointers per game in the WNBA, so the 6-foot-6 Jones will have plenty of opportunities to grab boards. 

I know that last paragraph may be confusing since I also took Stewart Under rebounds, but I just strongly disagree that Jones and Stewart should each have rebounding props of 6.5 if both are playing. 

Valkyries -3.5 

The Valkyries have somewhat crashed back down to Earth, as they've lost five of their past six games after a 9-7 start in their first-ever WNBA season. But if you look closer, it's just been a brutal recent schedule for the Valkyries, and I think this sets up as a great spot for them.

During that 1-5 stretch, five of those contests were on the road against teams that are playoff contenders—the 21-4 Lynx (closed +9.5, lost by 11), the 14-10 Dream with a healthy Rhyne Howard (closed +7.5, lost by 9), the 12-12 Fever with Caitlin Clark playing (closed +7, won by 19), the 12-11 Aces (closed +5, lost by 2) and the 14-10 Storm (closed +5.5, lost by 9). The lone home game over that span was against the 15-8 Mercury, where Golden State lost by 1 after closing as a 2.5-point favorite.

Now, the Valkyries got a chance to rest and regroup after all of that travel and facing so many tough opponents, as this is their first game after the All-Star Break. This is also the first time that Golden State is playing a non-playoff team in July, as the Valkyries are hosting the 7-17 Wings. 

On the surface, it looks like the Wings have been playing much better of late. They beat the Storm by 24 points on the road last game and only lost by four points at home to the Aces the game before. But Seattle was without All-Star point guard Skylar Diggins for the first time all season and looked discombobulated without its floor general against Dallas. Las Vegas was up by 17 points with 8:21 to go when All-Star guard Jackie Young exited with a hip injury, and the Wings were able to rally late against a shorthanded Aces team that was already lacking depth. 

I think this is a strong buy-low spot on a Valkyries team that has gone 8-3 against the spread at home this season, compared to 5-6 ATS on the road—even with leading scorer Kayla Thornton being ruled out for this game.

Overall record: 44-45, +7.69 units