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The College Football Playoff is down to four teams, with Miami vs. Ole Miss and Indiana vs. Oregon set to determine who will play for the national championship on Jan. 19. Who will make the final, and which team will win it all? SportsLine college football betting expert Thomas Casale breaks down the semifinals and who he thinks will win the national championship. 

After two years of the expanded College Football Playoff, once thing is clear: There is no benefit to getting the bye. Seven of the eight teams that earned a first-round bye have lost in the quarterfinals, with Indiana's dominant win over Alabama in the Rose Bowl being the only exception.

The final four is set in the CFP, and it's not the teams most people were expecting. Here are my predictions for the semifinals and National Championship. 

CFP semifinal predictions

No. 10 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels

Thursday Jan. 8: Fiesta Bowl; Glendale, Ariz.

When the bracket came out, everyone was looking forward to the semifinal matchup between Georgia and Ohio State that would surely be billed as the "Real National Championship." The only problem is, Miami and Ole Miss didn't get the memo. 

This matchup is why we have an expanded playoff system. I would have bet good money that either Ohio State or Georgia would be in this game. However, the teams decided it on the field, and that's not how it played out. 

While it's not the two teams I expected, I'm fascinated by the matchup. Miami's defensive line has been the best unit so far in the playoff, while Trinidad Chambliss has been the best player through two games. We can talk about teams getting a first-round bye not being sharp after a long layoff, but I thought Georgia played really well. Chambliss was just the best player on the field, throwing for 362 yards and two touchdowns. 

Despite being the last team in the field, the Canes opened as small favorites over Ole Miss. I think this game will come down to Miami's offense. Carson Beck has done a good job of not losing the first two playoff games. The Hurricanes have rushed for 328 yards across wins over Texas A&M and Ohio State, so Beck has been able to manage the game and avoid turnovers. 

I think we see a similar blueprint here. Ole Miss allowed 151 rushing yards per game this season and if Miami gets to that total, the Canes likely advance. The one X-factor is Chambliss. If he plays like he did against Georgia, it might be enough, although Miami pass rushers Rueben Bain Jr. and Wesley Bissainthe will be a tough matchup for Ole Miss' offensive line. 

This is the tougher of the two games to predict, but I like Miami's offensive line and defense being the difference in the fourth quarter. The U wins a close one. 

Pick: Miami

No. 5 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers

Friday, Jan. 9: Peach Bowl; Atlanta, Ga.

There was a changing of the guard in the Rose Bowl. Nick Saban and Alabama dominated the college football world for 15 years, winning six national championships over that span. Now, Curt Cignetti looks like the new Saban after the Hoosiers physically embarrassed Alabama. Cignetti is just two wins away from bringing a national championship to Indiana in just his second season. Simply remarkable. 

These teams met back in October, with Indiana winning at Oregon 30-20. The difference in that game was the Hoosiers' defensive line. Indiana held Oregon to 20 points, 81 rushing yards and just 267 total yards. Quarterback Dante Moore struggled against the elite Indiana defense, finishing with 186 yards and two interceptions.

Both of these defenses are very good, although I give the Hoosiers an edge. Indiana ranks No. 1 in stuff rate (tackles behind the line of scrimmage), and if the Ducks can't run the football here, they will be in trouble. For all the talk about Moore being the top pick in the NFL Draft, he has never put up big numbers against a top defense. 

I trust Fernando Mendoza and the Indiana running game to create more explosive plays in what should be a competitive game. The Hoosiers' defense makes some key stops in the fourth quarter and Indiana advances to the CFP National Championship. 

Pick: Indiana

National Championship 

No. 10 Miami Hurricanes vs. No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers 

I know Indiana isn't sexy. However, the Hoosiers are the most well-coached team in the country, they have an elite defense and a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback. They also won at Oregon, defeated top-ranked Ohio State on a neutral field and toyed with Alabama in the quarterfinals. It's official -- Indiana is now a football school. 

If you are a fan of the trenches like me, this is the game for us. Miami has my top-rated offensive line, while Indiana is my No. 1-ranked defensive front. That is where the game will be won or lost, but on paper, let's call it a wash. The big edge here comes down to the quarterbacks. If Miami can't control the game on the ground and needs Beck to make plays down the field, it's advantage Hoosiers. 

In my original projections, I had Indiana losing a close game to Georgia in the National Championship. Now I have the Hoosiers rated as the best team left in the field by quite a bit. It all sets up for Indiana to win its first of what could be multiple national championships under Cignetti. 

National Champion: Indiana Hoosiers