College Football Playoff: Five keys to the Sugar Bowl between Clemson and Alabama
The third edition of Tigers vs. Crimson Tide takes place Monday in the Superdome in New Orleans
•
7 min read
NEW ORLEANS -- The first two editions of the Clemson-Alabama saga were classic games for the national championship, and the third edition of the trilogy could be the most interesting of the bunch.
The No. 1 Tigers and No. 4 Crimson Tide will get it on Monday night in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans in the second College Football Playoff national semifinal on New Year's Day, with storylines galore.
Clemson quarterback Kelly Bryant has been awesome stepping in for Deshaun Watson after Watson rode off into the sunset by leading the program to its first national title since 1981 last year. Alabama sophomore quarterback Jalen Hurts will hope to avenge last season's heart-breaker by finishing off the Tigers after he scored a go-ahead touchdown in the title game late last season prior to Watson's heroics.
Here are the keys in the Sugar Bowl:
1. Alabama's offensive line has to have its best day: The Crimson Tide offensive line struggled down the stretch, specifically in the close win at Mississippi State in mid-November when they gave up five sacks, seven tackles for loss and allowed the Bulldogs to get push up front throughout the entire game. In their lone loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, the Tide gave up five more tackles for loss and the Tigers defensive front consistently disrupted plays behind the line of scrimmage.
The Clemson defensive front seven, led by Clelin Ferrell, Austin Bryant and Dorian O'Daniel, is the best group they've faced all year, and it isn't even close.
"They're a really talented bunch," Crimson Tide offensive tackle Jonah Williams said. "Well coached. They're long, they're rangy, quick, slippery -- all the things you see in a good D-line. They generate a lot of negative plays, so it poses a challenge for us, and it's something we've been preparing for."
Nothing about Alabama's offensive approach is complicated. It's a basic zone-read scheme that relies on Hurts to make the proper reads -- which he does almost every time. But when defenders get in to disrupt the rhythm or stays disciplined and limits the big plays, there is no Plan B.
Clemson's primary goal is to get Alabama to Plan B by exposing the Alabama offensive line -- its primary offensive weakness. Alabama's will be to avoid that at all costs.
2. Kelly Bryant can't get rattled: The Tigers quarterback has been awesome this year, throwing for 2,678 yards 13 touchdowns, while running for 646 and 11 touchdowns. He fought through an ankle injury and then got knocked out of the loss to Syracuse with a concussion. He's a vital piece of the offensive puzzle that will face the toughest test of his career in New Orleans.
"Once the season started, I think obviously being a first‑year starter, there's a lot of lessons that you learn each and every week," co-offensive coordinator Jeff Scott said. "But really from our perspective, he's been the same all year long. That's one of the reasons that we're sitting here today, is because of his consistency. That's one of the best traits that you can have in your quarterback, is some that's very consistent and doesn't play up or play down in certain games, in certain moments."
While Bryant has been a part of the program during the last two College Football Playoff experiences, he hasn't been here. As in, he hasn't been the starting quarterback going up against the fast and physical Alabama defensive front on one of the biggest stages college football has to offer.
How will he handle it? Will he stay calm after Da'Ron Payne, Rashaan Evans or one of the other monsters up front gives him a warm "welcome" to the College Football Playoff?
We don't know the answer to that question yet. Luckily for Bryant, he has plenty of experienced weapons to fall back on, including wide receiver Deon Cain and last season's hero, Hunter Renfrow.
3. Somebody other than Calvin Ridley has to step up: Hurts hasn't been stellar as a downfield passer this year, but it's not all his fault. In reality, it's a culmination of several things that starts with the absence of a complementary piece to star wide receiver Calvin Ridley.
The junior has 55 catches for 896 yards and three touchdowns in 2017, while the rest of the Alabama team has 116. The second-most prolific pass-catcher on the Crimson Tide in terms of receptions is running back Bo Scarbrough -- with 14 catches.
There is no ArDarius Stewart or O.J. Howard on this team.
"In the passing game, depending on the protection you want to use, you either have five guys out, four guys out, three guys out, sometimes two guys out," offensive coordinator Brian Daboll said. "So everybody has a role. And wherever the ball is going ‑‑ look, Calvin Ridley is a very good football player. And he's his own guy, but he's got a very good skill set. So you'd like to get your best playmaker the ball and put him in different spots, but everyone has a role. So if he's getting doubled or they're rolling to him, there's other parts to the pattern that goes to the progression. And he's not always the first progression on a read."
He's not always the first progression, but he's the only consistent one.
There's no doubt that Clemson's defense will do all that it can to take Ridley away.
"I think he's a big reason why they have success, and we're going to have to do our best to try and limit those big plays," Tigers cornerback Ryan Carter said. "Calvin Ridley's just a special player for them, if you take away him, it's a whole different ball game. So we're going to do our best to try and limit his success and limit what we can do defensively for him to not as much of a big receiving game as possible."
4. Alabama has to get the ground game going: The last time we saw the Crimson Tide on the field, the stats lied to all of us.
They rushed for 211 yards and 5.5 yards per carry in the loss to Auburn, but 67 of those yards were on the first drive of the second half when Scarbrough and Damien Harris cruised down the field and gave the Tide a 14-10 lead. Those numbers look all shiny and nice, but the biggest reason Auburn sprung the upset was because they took the running backs away before and after that drive, and forced Hurts to keep it the majority of the time.
Daboll has to find a way to get Harris and Scarbrough going.
"It's going to take a whole team effort with the front seven to stop that run game, because if you can't stop the run you can't win the game," Clemson defensive end Clelin Ferrell said. "It's going to be tough and I'm getting tired of saying how tough it's going to be because…wow they don't really have a weakness. I feel like we have the talent and work effort to do so. The players have bought into the system so I feel like we'll be fine as long as we take care of business."
If Alabama's backs get going, it'll not only be great on the surface since -- you know -- they're freaks. But it'll also be a sign that the Crimson Tide misdirection has forced the Tigers' attention elsewhere, which will put those backs in a perfect position to feast.
5. Third down conversions will tell the tale: Clemson ranks No. 8 nationally in third down conversions, moving the sticks on 46.83 percent of its chances.
A big part of its success has been the diversity in which they go about converting. Last season's title game hero Hunter Renfrow has been a big part of their success, picking up 16 first downs on 19 third-down receptions.
"He's a guy who finds a way to get open," Alabama defensive coordinator Jeremy Pruitt said. "He can beat you vertically down the field because of his speed. He's a very instinctive route runner, has soft hands and creates yards after catch. Probably the most important thing is that he's probably as good of a competitor as you can find in the game."
Throw him in with Bryant, who has picked up first downs on 10 of his 20 runs on third-and-three or less, and you've got a recipe for success for the Tigers.
That group is going up against an Alabama defense that, against Power Five opponents, ranks No. 15 nationally in third down defense (30.30 percent).
Flip it around, and things get interesting. Clemson's defensive front led by Ferrell and Bryant has been stout all year, ranking fourth in the country in third-down defense (27.80 percent). Alabama's offense has struggled in that department, converting 41.4 percent of its chances -- 50th nationally.
One look at the third down conversion rate late Monday night will probably give you a good idea of who's celebrating on Bourbon Street, and who's going home feeling a little hungover.
