College Football Playoff odds: What line movement tells us about the quarterfinals matchups
A look at the line movement for the four quarterfinal matchups over the last 10 days
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2 min read
The College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups have been set for 10 days, which has given sports bettors ample time to dig in and try to find edges for each of the four games.
Despite some intriguing matchups in terms of program names, only one of the four quarterfinal games opened with a spread inside a touchdown -- No. 5 Oregon was made a 1.5-point favorite over No. 4 Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl. The other top three seeds were all made 6.5-point favorites or more. No. 2 Ohio State as the biggest favorite of the round, laying 9.5 points against No. 10 Miami to open in the Cotton Bowl. No. 1 Indiana opened as a 6.5-point favorite over No. 9 Alabama, while No. 3 Georgia was also made a 6.5-point favorite against No. 6 Ole Miss.
After 10 days of betting action, not too much has changed on the odds sheet as oddsmakers had their power ratings dialed for the quarterfinal showdowns and have gotten fairly even action to hold the numbers close to where they began.
(Odds below via FanDuel Sportsbook)
College Football Playoff quarterfinal line movement
| Bowl | Opening spread, total | Current spread, total (12/31) |
|---|---|---|
Cotton Bowl | Ohio State -9.5, 41.5 | Ohio State -9.5, 41.5 |
Orange Bowl | Oregon -1.5, 52.5 | Oregon -2.5, 51.5 |
Rose Bowl | Indiana -6.5, 48.5 | Indiana -7.5, 48.5 |
Sugar Bowl | Georgia -6.5, 56.5 | Georgia -6.5, 55.5 |
The most notable movement is Indiana moving across a key number from being a 6.5-point favorite to a 7.5-point favorite. While Oregon moved from laying 1.5 to 2.5, indicating more money coming in on the Ducks, it takes far more for oddsmakers to be willing to shift a line across that all-important number of 7.
Bettors are big enough believers in the undefeated Hoosiers against an Alabama team that's been up and down of late that the oddsmakers have had to push Indiana to the other side of a touchdown. That's still a staggering number to look at next to those two logos, but Indiana has more than earned that respect from the oddsmakers and bettors with their performance in bit games this season.
Ohio State and Georgia have largely stayed static, with the occasional bump to 10 and 7 before shifting back, but not enough has come in heavy enough on Miami or Ole Miss to move those lines closer to the underdogs than the opening numbers.
We've also seen a pair of totals drop a point, with the Oregon-Texas Tech number dipping to 51.5, while Georgia-Ole Miss has slid to 55.5 -- again moving through a key number of 56 to indicate some strong early money on the under. The other two totals have remained static, as the oddsmakers are happy with the balance on the action.
Odds movement can offer an indication of where the "wise guys" stand on games, and the minimal movement on the quarterfinals points to the oddsmakers and sharps largely being in alignment on the numbers. That's not a surprise given the profile of the eight teams remaining and how deep into the season we are, as the major edges usually come earlier in the year or with lesser known teams.
On paper, they all seem to agree, and on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day, we'll find out if the games on the field play out as expected or if the numbers are made to look foolish.
