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What does an ACC look like without Louisville basketball? Short of the death penalty resulting from the current federal probe, what does the incubus ACC Network look like with a damaged Louisville?

CBS Sports put those questions to athletic and television industry sources as the hits just keep on coming against one of college basketball's most recognizable national brands.

They agreed this is sort of unchartered territory.

At Louisville, severe NCAA sanctions were followed by the news last week of a federal investigation that alleged the school was culpable in landing recruit Brian Bowen.

Theoretically, that could make Louisville an NCAA repeat violator, technically in line for the death penalty, for which one prominent writer has already made the call.

Is it going to happen? Probably not. Effectively firing athletic director Tom Jurich and basketball coach Rick Pitino are huge mitigating factors for Louisville. But there are layers that have to be dug through before Louisville and the ACC move on.

If Louisville basketball was shut down, the ACC would most likely have to go back to the bargaining table with its rightsholder to renegotiate.  That could lead to an altering of the payouts that would affect everything from football down to the minor sports, which are funded almost directly by that network money.

"If Louisville gets the death penalty and a ban on TV, I can assure you it will raise serious issues with media rights," one industry source said. "This is not a particularly good time to go to the [negotiating] table."

Not with layoffs and declining subscriber numbers at cable networks.

"There's no money for rights fees out there," one source said. "If [rightsholders] have an excuse to leverage  lower rights fees or get something back [they will]. It's probably not typical to have a right to terminate [a deal], but it's absolutely typical to negotiate. You go to arbitration. Everything is fair game."

The ACC has never been richer. Last year, the conference agreed to a 20-year media rights contract that will pay the league a reported $1.86 billion. Included in that deal is an agreement to launch the ACC Network through ESPN in 2019.

An ESPN spokesman would not comment on the possibility of a Louisville death penalty. He did indicate ESPN was on-board with a full cable launch of the ACC Network in two years.  

"I have done contracts for both sides," said American Athletic Conference commissioner Mike Aresco, who has represented both his conference and CBS Sports as its former executive vice president of programming. "You typically would have the ability to negotiate [if a member leaves]. Whether you could terminate it, that would take a lot."

Aresco was not speaking specifically of ESPN.

"We don't know if there will be additional schools, additional coaches that will be caught up in this [FBI investigation]," said Neal Pilson, a former CBS Sports president who currently runs his own media consulting company.

"I don't think it will impact the business decision to invest in ACC Network," he added. "I don't think it's a question of [Louisville] leaving. I think it's a question of them and others possibly being sanctioned by the NCAA."

The Big 12 has actually been through this sort of thing. The conference lost four schools in a two-year period (2010-11) during the last round of conference realignment.

ESPN and Fox agreed to pay the Big 12 the same for its current 10 teams as it did for 12. In return, the Big 12 went to a nine-game conference schedule providing the rightsholders with more content they could monetize.

"It was the devil they knew vs the devil they didn't know," former commissioner Dan Beebe said.

That is, a middle-of-the-country conference anchored by Texas and Oklahoma. We know what that looks like. What does Tobacco Road look like without Louisville basketball?

Chris Petersen's fine whine

When the Washington coach complained this week about starting times for Pac-12 games, he had a lot of supporters. Chief among them was commissioner Larry Scott and his other Pac-12 coaches. It may come to pass that the Pac-12 game of the year was played on last Friday at 10:30 p.m. ET.

Washington State upset USC last week at a time when a lot of folks east of the Rockies were in bed. Good for business?

Put it this way, it just is business.

I've been reminded several times that, when those conferences sell their rights to networks, they are effectively giving up their ability to schedule those games as well. Don't forget the networks have to somehow make that money back they are paying the schools.

Petersen was upset Washington will play the next two Saturdays at 10:45 p.m. ET. He and his peers may not like it, but don't look for the practice to change anytime soon. Some of it is a case of market forces. The Pac-12 has the lowest payout of any Power Five conference for a reason.

The Big Ten sort of kicks off the day with the noon slot. The SEC (on CBS) owns the 3:30 p.m. slot with a highly rated over-the-air game. The best non-SEC games of the day are usually reserved for 8 p.m. ET. More than frequently, those games don't include Pac-12.

That means #Pac12AfterDark can be undesirable for athletes, coaches, fans and recruiting, but those games are slotted where a rightsholder thinks they can attract advertising and get the highest ratings.

Big 12 Network not dead

During its scuttled expansion plans -- announced a year ago this month -- the Big 12 made it clear a linear cable conference network wasn't going to work.

It's also no secret now the Big 12 is interested in over-the-top streaming services in the future. 

It's that sort of thinking that has the league looking at a possible digital network  in the future, according to sources. Think of something more along the lines of ESPN3. http://www.espn.com/watch/

How technology progresses in the near future -- and those who control it -- will be the deciding factor.

Quick kicks

Pay attention to Pulitzer Prize-winner Mike McIntire's new book, "Champions Way: Football, Florida, and the Lost Soul of College Sports." It recounts how a now-deceased doctoral student blew the whistle on academic impropriety at Florida State. Fascinating stuff … It turns out a key reason the Big 12 didn't expand was the highly-subsidized nature (student fees, etc) of the candidates. One source said schools were trying to buy their way in to the Big 12. That's no way to run a business.