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The TCU Horned Frogs look to extend their dominance of Texas when they travel to face the Longhorns on Saturday in a key Big 12 matchup. Kickoff from Texas Memorial Stadium is set for noon ET. The Horned Frogs have controlled this rivalry for the past decade, winning six of the past eight meetings, including a 37-27 victory in Fort Worth last season. Those wins have come by an average of nearly 23 points with only one decided by a single possession. But Texas won the last meeting in Austin, 31-16 two years ago, and must do so again in order to remain in control of the Big 12 race.

William Hill lists the Longhorns as 11.5-point favorites, down from opening at -13, in the latest Texas vs. TCU odds. The over-under for total points expected is up to 62.5 after opening at 61. Before making any TCU vs. Texas picks, be sure to see the college football predictions from SportsLine's Josh Nagel.

A Nevada-based handicapper with more than 20 years of experience in the sports wagering industry, Nagel specializes in college sports and has been a consistent winner for SportsLine members. Last year, he went 82-61-1 on his against-the-spread college football picks to give his followers a profit of nearly $2,000. He's off to another string start in the 2020 season that includes a 6-1 run heading into Week 5.

What's more, he has had a keen eye for the trajectories of both programs, posting a 19-4 record on spread picks involving either Texas or TCU over the past three seasons. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, Nagel has set his sights on Texas vs. TCU. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the college football odds from William Hill and trends for TCU vs. Texas:

  • Texas vs. TCU spread: Texas -11.5
  • Texas vs. TCU over-under: 62.5 points
  • Texas vs. TCU money line: Texas -420, TCU +340
  • TCU: The Horned Frogs have covered five of the past six meetings in this series.
  • TEX: The home team has covered four of the past five games between these two teams.

Why Texas can cover

In his first career appearance for the Longhorns, quarterback Sam Ehlinger led them from 20 points down against Oklahoma to take the lead in the fourth quarter. The Sooners scored a late touchdown to win the game, but the job has been Ehlinger's ever since, and he added to his growing legacy with the stunning comeback against Texas Tech last week.

Coach Tom Herman said the dual-threat quarterback told the team, huddled on the sideline and down 15 points with three minutes to play, that he was going to lead the Longhorns to a victory. He delivered and among the praise he received afterward was defensive tackle Deondre Coburn referring to his quarterback as "the Tom Brady of college football."

He amassed 332 yards of total offense and shared Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week honors after throwing five touchdowns to five different receivers. In doing so, Ehlinger became the first quarterback in Texas history to throw for five touchdowns in multiple games. He did the same against UTEP in the season opener.

Why TCU can cover

Texas faces another challenge from a TCU program that revels in spoiling the Longhorns' aspirations and would love to do so again. That's exactly what happened last year as the Horned Frogs rolled to a 37-27 home win that all but eliminated Texas from the Big 12 title game.

The Horned Frogs managed just seven first-half points against Iowa State but rallied in the second half. They were sparked by incumbent starting quarterback Max Duggan, who sat the first half because he missed a lot of practice time while dealing with a health issue. Duggan went 16-of-19 for 241 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Duggan broke out against Texas last year, throwing for 273 yards and two touchdowns while adding a rushing score.

How to make Texas vs. TCU picks

Nagel is leaning over on the total, and he's also found a critical x-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.

So who wins TCU vs. Texas? And which critical x-factor does Nagel believe makes one side a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Texas vs. TCU spread to back, all from the expert who has nailed 19 of his last 23 picks involving these teams, and find out.