2018 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Ranking the Rookie Quarterbacks in Dynasty
Heath Cummings looks at the Dynasty value of the rookie quarterbacks.
- Heath's Dynasty Rankings: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends | Rookies
- More Rookie Rankings: Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends
- More Fantasy Football:Dave Richard's Rookie Dynasty Rankings | Early 2018 Season Preview | Schedule Analysis: Best to Worst
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In a standard redraft league, you aren't going to be drafting a rookie quarterback this year. That's one of the problems with standard redraft leagues. You want to take a shot on No. 1 overall pick Baker Mayfield in the NFL draft. You need to have Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen sitting at the back of your roster, with the upside their potential offers. But you won't have any place for them, even if you're one of those guys who insists on drafting a backup quarterback. That's because quarterback has never been deeper.
I'm not even sure you'll be drafting one of last year's rookies, Mitchell Trubisky.
But in Dynasty? Well that's a totally different story. There are at least six rookies who should be rostered in a Dynasty league, here's where I rank them at the position:
18. Baker Mayfield
It's weird to think being picked by the Cleveland Browns could land you in the best situation for longterm success, but that's exactly how I feel about Mayfield. I compare the situation to Patrick Mahomes', the Chiefs' selection in 2017. Like Mahomes, Mayfield will start the year on the bench, behind Tyrod Taylor. I'm not planning on starting any of these quarterbacks as rookies, so that doesn't bother me in the least.
Mayfield was the most prolific passer of this group in college, throwing for 4,627 yards and 43 touchdowns as a senior while completing 70 percent of his passes. In case you think these numbers sound fluke-y, Mayfield threw for 3,965 and 40 touchdowns in one fewer game as a junior. He also completed 70 percent of his passes that season. If you're more into advanced stats, Mayfield's suggest he may be the best quarterback prospect ever. Count me among those who believe the Browns made the right choice when they selected him No. 1 overall.
Like Mahomes, Mayfield gets the benefit of good coaching. No, I'm not joking. Forget Hue Jackson for a moment and focus on offensive coordinator Todd Haley. Jackson has said all the right things when it comes to completely turning the offense over to Haley. Haley has spent nine years as an coordinator in the NFL and his team has finished in the top five in passing yards in six of them. Sure, he's done it with talented quarterbacks, but he's got another one in Mayfield.
Finally, there's the talent around Mayfield. The Browns have one of the best deep threats in the game, Josh Gordon. They have Jarvis Landry in the slot, a receiver who has caught more passes in his first four years than any in NFL history. They also have one of the best pass-catching running backs in the league (Duke Johnson) and an extremely talented, if raw, tight end in David Njoku. Other than Mason Rudolph, none of the rookies landed in a spot with weapons anywhere close to this good.
Mahomes played just one game as a rookie, but if anything his stock rose. This was partially due to the universal praise he received from his coaches and teammates, and partially because of the ridiculous throws he made in the preseason. But you also can't overstate the importance of the Chiefs being willing to deal Alex Smith after a career year, just to make room for Mahomes. If Mayfield's rookie year goes like Mahomes' I'll have in my top-10 Dynasty quarterbacks heading into 2019. Grab him now while his price is still suppressed by doubters.
23. Sam Darnold
If Mayfield was the most talented quarterback in this draft, Darnold looks like the most ready. He may get a chance to prove that as soon as Week 1, as Darnold will compete with Josh McCown. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he wins the job.
Darnold has better measurables than Mayfield and while he wasn't as successful, he still had a very good year in 2017. He threw for 4,143 yards and 26 touchdowns as a redshirt sophomore while completing 63 percent of his passes. Darnold doesn't even turn 21 until June (he's a full two years younger than Mayfield), and that matters. But I don't see the same star-level upside, and his situation leaves a lot to be desired.
Darnold heads to a New York Jets team with Jeremy Bates as his offensive coordinator and a receiving corps headlined by Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa. This situation isn't bad enough to where I'd downgrade the rookie, especially in Dynasty, but it's also not one that will elevate him. Bates, specifically gives me cause for concern. He has a limited and checkered history in the NFL. Head coach Todd Bowles doesn't give me any more cause for optimism.
Of all the rookie quarterbacks, Darnold's coaching situation seems the most likely to change in the next calendar year. While that could seem like a positive if you don't trust Bowles and Bates — see: Goff, Jared — instability in an organization can be extremely damaging for the development of a young quarterback.
If I had to place a bet on which of these rookie quarterbacks will score the most Fantasy points as a rookie, Darnold would be the favorite. He may also be the most likely to be a 10-year starter in the NFL. But Mayfield's upside and concerns about surrounding cast put Darnold a tier below Mayfield in my rankings.
24. Josh Rosen
Rosen has a cannon of an arm and is as cerebral as quarterback prospects come. Unlike some in the NFL, I happen to believe that being smart is a bonus for an NFL quarterback. And, he's almost as young as Darnold. His youth and intelligence, coupled with his arm strength and prototypical size, make Rosen looks a guy who could be drafted first overall. But there are reasons to be concerned as well.
Rosen's college stats are good, but not great. He completed 62.6 percent of his passes as a junior (career 60.9 percent) and averaged 8.3 yards per attempt. He threw 26 touchdowns in 11 games and had a passer rating of 147.0. None of those numbers were good enough to rank in the top-10 in the NCAA in 2017.
I like that Rosen will get to work with Mike McCoy, and he has a chance to beat out Sam Bradford for the starting job with a good preseason. His weapons are good enough for the present (David Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald), and fellow rookie Christian Kirk could grow into the Fitzgerald role when he leaves. The situation is better than Darnold's, but still nowhere close to Mayfield's.
Rosen is in the same tier as Darnold and I'd listen to a case that he should be ranked above him. For me the difference comes with Rosen's injury history and Darnold's polish. Both should start more than half of the season and I wouldn't be surprised if Rosen puts up better stats as a rookie. I still feel better about Darnold long term.
28. Lamar Jackson
If I knew Lamar Jackson was going to get a fair shake in the NFL as a quarterback, he'd be second on this list. He landed on a team with a good coach (John Harbaugh) and a bad quarterback (Joe Flacco), and he's an elite athlete (1,601 rushing yards in 2017) whose Y/A (8.5) and passer rating (146.6) look a whole lot like Josh Rosen's. Put him with a creative offensive coach who believes in him as a quarterback and I have little doubt Jackson would be a viable Fantasy option in the next couple of years.
The knock against Jackson is his accuracy and, if we're being honest, his athleticism. Many see an athletic quarterback and automatically question whether he can succeed as a pocket passer. The second point should be a moot one, because a good offensive coordinator would design his offense around Jackson's skillset. But that's not the way the NFL often works.
Jackson's career completion percentage (57 percent) is a red flag, but he completed 59.1 percent in 2017, which is not all that far from Rosen. If Jackson had completed one more pass per game, we probably wouldn't even be talking about his accuracy.
If my quarterback situation was set in a Dynasty league I would be tempted to prioritize Jackson over Darnold and Rosen in a rookie draft. His upside, in the right circumstances, is a must-start quarterback in any Fantasy league.
30. Josh Allen
Josh Allen looks like everything you'd want in an NFL quarterback. Standing 6 feet 5 inches with a bazooka for an arm and massive hands (10 1/8 inches), he's everything scouts dream about.
Until you watch him play football.
Competing in the Mountain West Conference, Allen completed just 56.3 percent of his passes and averaged 6.7 yards per attempt. He only threw 16 touchdowns in 11 games in 2017. In fairness to Allen, he was much better as a sophomore (8.6 Y/A, 28 touchdowns) but he still completed just 56 percent of his passes. It's extremely rare for a quarterback as inaccurate as Allen was in college to succeed in the NFL, no matter how big his hands are.
Allen's defenders will tell you that he didn't have any help at Wyoming. That may not get much better in Buffalo. Kelvin Benjamin is his No. 1 receiver, and right now Zay Jones is his No. 2. His offensive coordinator (Brian Daboll) has spent four years as an offensive coordinator in the NFL and all four of those years his team finished in the bottom third of the league in passing yards and total offense.
There are plenty of smart people in the NFL who view Allen as the best prospect in this draft. It's not hard to see the ceiling they see, but for me his odds of reaching that ceiling are too long to bet on until the late stages of a rookie draft.
31. Mason Rudolph
Mason Rudolph is an enigma. He's a tall quarterback (6 feet 5 inches) with tiny hands (9 1/8 inches) and poor arm strength. But he's also a three-year starter who completed 63.2 percent of his passes in college and led the nation with 4,904 yards in 2017. His 10.0 Y/A is elite and forebodes good things but, like Mayfield, some give Big 12 defenses more credit for that number than Rudolph.
His landing spot is equally perplexing. Obviously, the Steelers are one of the most talented offenses in the league and Ben Roethlisberger is a 36 year-old who has talked plenty about retirement the past two years. But Roethlisberger seems to be equal parts emboldened and annoyed by the Steelers pick, and has said he wants to play three-to-five more years. He also said he has no interest in mentoring Rudolph.
I'd rather have him at the end of my Dynasty roster than someone like Blake Bortles or Sam Bradford, but he needs to be your third quarterback because it may be a while before he sees an NFL field.
















