2018 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Sleepers, breakouts and busts for two-QB leagues

Heath Cummings takes a look at the two-QB format and offers sleepers, breakouts and busts.

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With the mainstream acceptance of the virtues of streaming quarterback, we spend a lot of time in-season talking about guys outside the top-12 in our quarterback rankings. But we don't spend near enough time doing that in the preseason. That's because more and more Fantasy players are just drafting one signal caller, knowing that there are so many good quarterbacks that there's always someone on waivers. 

That depth at the position has also spurred a growth in two-QB and superflex leagues. We just did our first two-QB mock if you want to read Jamey Eisenberg's write-up. One thing I love about these leagues is it forces us to take a deeper look at the most important position in football. Yes, some of these guys will be relevant in standard leagues this fall, but their impact will be much larger in two-QB leagues. 

Here are your sleepers, breakouts and busts for two-QB leagues.

Sleepers

How in the world could a top-5 quarterback from 2017 be a sleeper? He's currently No. 20 by ADP at the position at FantasyPros.com. While Alex Smith's 2017 was a career-year and not likely repeatable, he's long been a favorite in the two-QB community. He finished as a top-19 quarterback in four of his five seasons in Kansas City, outperforming his ADP in each. Smith doesn't turn the ball over, and averaged an additional three Fantasy points per game on the ground in Kansas City.

Of course, Smith isn't in Kansas City any longer, so what does the prognosis look like in Washington? It's a mixed bag. He won't have weaponry anywhere close to the trio of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt this year, but he may have more passing volume. Smith has never thrown the ball more than 508 times in a season, while Washington has averaged 567 pass attempts the past three seasons. Smith may see his rush attempts drop, but the less-mobile Kirk Cousins had 13 rushing touchdowns the last three years in Washington.

My projections have Smith as the No. 15 quarterback in 2018 and there's upside from there. For one thing, he's just nine Fantasy points behind my No. 10 quarterback, Philip Rivers. If Jordan Reed is able to stay healthy and Jay Gruden lets Smith loose on the ground, Smith could be a star in two-QB leagues once again. 

I'll admit my projections don't like Eli Manning any more than you guys do. He's No. 26 in the projections and No. 24 by ADP. I'd assume both are strongly influenced by the fact that Manning has been a definitively bad quarterback the past two years. 32 quarterbacks have thrown at least 500 passes in the past two seasons, and Manning ranks 30th in Y/A, 24th in quarterback rating, and 25th in TD percentage. But it's sure hard to see how he's that bad when you look at his surroundings.

Manning has one of the best receivers in the game in Odell Beckham, and young talent all over the field with Saquon Barkely, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram. If Manning is even passable (no pun intended) as a passer he should be in the middle of the pack in terms of Fantasy production. Thankfully, at his cost you don't even need that. 

Breakouts

There's nothing in Mitchell Trubisky's rookie numbers to make you think he's a good quarterback. But you could have said the same thing for Jared Goff and Carson Wentz last season. Their success isn't reason to elevate Trubisky in your rankings, but everything else around him may be.

The Bears hired an offensive-minded head coach in Matt Nagy and a creative offensive coordinator in Mark Helfrich. They added a supremely-talented wide receiver in Allen Robinson and a breakout candidate at tight end in Trey Burton. In one offseason Trubisky went from a truly dreadful situation to a very promising one. Like Smith, I'd expect him to score with his legs and like Manning, there's plenty of talent to carry him. 

I'm not sure Trubisky has the upside to breakout in a standard league with all the talent at the position. But it's easy to see a path to a finish in the mid-teens at quarterback, with even more upside in leagues that only reward four points for passing touchdowns. 

One more sleeper... 

Another young quarterback with upside  is Lamar Jackson. But first we have to get Joe Flacco out of the way. Flacco is one of the few quarterbacks who Manning can look down on over the past two seasons, and I thnk the Ravens should make the move to Jackson to start the season. Unfortunately, they haven't asked for my input.

If we get to see the rookie on the field as the starter at some point this year, it should be quite a sight. He's a more accurate passer than fellow rookie Josh Allen, and has athleticism you could rightfully compare to Michael Vick. Jackson only needs to be drafted as a third quarterback, but his upside if he gets on the field is inside the top-12 quarterbacks.

Bust

I've had a love/hate relationship with Matt Ryan in Fantasy the past three years. A couple of years ago I loved drafting him at the end of the draft because it looked like he had positive touchdown regression coming. Not only did that happen, but he had a remarkable season and was one of the best quarterbacks in Fantasy. The following offseason he was in my bust column because of how unsustainable that season was. And he did bust. Now he's being drafted as the No. 14 quarterback, which makes sense ... but I'm still concerned.

Ryan has thrown 534 and 529 passes each of the past two seasons. It's not easy to be a top-12 quarterback with 530 attempts if you don't run at all and you don't have a great touchdown rate. While Ryan did have the 7.1 percent touchdown rate in 2016, it's his only season above 4.5 percent since 2012. If he throws 530 passes and hits 4.5 percent again he'll throw 24 touchdowns this year. Without rushing production that's a pretty bad Fantasy quarterback, even if he averages 7.7 Y/A again. 

With Ryan's pass volume and touchdown concerns I'd rather have Alex Smith, Tyrod Taylor, Patrick Mahomes or Philip Rivers. Ryan is being drafted ahead of all of them. Hard pass.