2019 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Who should I take at No. 7 overall in PPR?
A balanced, patient approach is required if you draw a draft slot in the middle of the draft.
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PPR draft slot: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12
Everyone wants to go into their draft with a plan. Well, most everyone but me. I'm generally entering a draft with rankings and tiers and an outline, but my only definite plan is to react to the way that specific draft unfolds. That's never more true than when I'm picking in the middle of a draft.
Picking from the No. 7 spot in a PPR draft means you're never truly sure what's going to be there with your next pick. While the wait is never as long as it is when you're picking at one of the turns, you can't strategize two picks ahead, much less an entire draft. You can't even say with great confidence how you want to start your draft unless you prioritize seven running backs before any receivers.
So how do you attack a draft from this position? With patience, which likely leads to balance.
Here's my team from No. 7 overall:
- 1.7 Julio Jones, WR, ATL
- 2.6 Dalvin Cook, RB, MIN
- 3.7 A.J. Green, WR, CIN
- 4.6 Tarik Cohen, RB, CHI
- 5.7 Hunter Henry, TE, LAC
- 6.6 Chris Carson, RB, SEA
- 7.7 Tyrell Williams, WR, OAK
- 8.6 Carson Wentz, QB, PHI
- 9.7 Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, GB
- 10.6 Jerick McKinnon, RB, SF
- 11.7 Kenny Stills, WR, MIA
- 12.6 Devante Parker, WR, MIA
- 13.7 Bruce Anderson, RB, TB
- 14.6 Dexter Williams, RB, GB
- 15.7 Houston Texans DST
The first four picks in this draft were all players I took behind where I have them ranked in PPR. Jones has been about as safe as you can get, finishing no worse than the No. 7 wide receiver in any season over the past five years. Cook isn't safe at all, but has the upside to make drafters wish they'd spent a first-round pick on him (more on that below). Green and Cohen have both shown us that they're worth more than this cost.
My patience did run out in Round 5 due to the tier drop off I see after Henry at tight end. It's not so much that my projections see a big difference between Henry and Jared Cook, but Henry has considerably more upside. I went back to my value-seeking ways in Round 6 and 8, with Carson and Wentz falling into my lap.
My receiver depth could be a bit of a problem, but I'm hoping either Stills or Parker emerge as a No. 1 in Miami. If not, I may have to rely on Valdes-Scantling, who I do believe has a ton of upside. The running back depth is much better, McKinnon and Anderson are two of my favorite late-round sleepers at the position. Anderson could legitimately take the starting job in Tampa Bay without an injury.
Favorite pick
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Cohen was the No. 11 running back in this format last season. He was the No. 21 running back taken in this draft. There are certainly reasons to be concerned about whether he can be a No. 1 running back in PPR again, but he feels pretty safe as a No. 2. His 91 targets were third best on the Bears last year and his 8.0 yards per target were tied with Allen Robinson for the best on the team. The Bears have talked about increasing his work in the passing game, and I would still expect he'll have 6-7 carries per game. Cohen is worth a pick at the end of the third round in this format.
Pick I might regret
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Henry was the only player I reached for according to my own projections in this draft. If he reaches his upside, I'm going to feel pretty good about that. Before last season, Philip Rivers had a long history of leaning heavily on his tight ends in the passing game. Henry has averaged 9.2 yards per target for his career and scored 12 career touchdowns on 115 targets. So what's the problem? Those tight end targets went to the running backs in Los Angeles last year. If Henry's target total is mediocre, he may not separate from the third tier of tight ends and I'll feel foolish for passing on the receivers I did in Round 5.
Make or break pick
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In 15 career games, Dalvin Cook has totaled 1,364 total yards and six touchdowns. He's caught 51 of 65 targets. His 223 Fantasy points would have ranked 13th at running back last year. Of course, it's taken him two years because of injuries. There are a couple of reasons I'm not sure we've seen the best of Cook, but the main reason is the Vikings offensive philosophy. I expect them to be much more run-heavy than they've been the past two years.
Once Kevin Stefanski took over the reigns in 2018, the Vikings ran the ball on nearly half of their offensive plays. That could give Cook a shot at 300 touches this season. If he scores more touchdowns after the departure of Latavius Murray, he could legitimately be a top-five back.
