2020 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Projections for wide receiver tier rankings
Heath Cummings and Ben Gretch break down their wide receiver projections into tiers for PPR and non-PPR.
As projections week continues on the Fantasy Football Today Podcast, it's time to turn our attention to wide receiver. It's an interesting time for the position, which only makes it harder for Heath Cummings and Ben Gretch as they try to project the position.
While passing is more prolific than ever, the top of the position hasn't really reflected that for Fantasy. Oh sure, you had Michael Thomas' historic 2019 season, but the number of 150-target receivers has remained relatively constant over the past decade.
How has that happened? Well, it's partially a result of the way offenses have changed structure. There is more passing overall, yes, but there are also more potential receivers on the field for most routes; most teams are running 11 personnel the majority of the time, with just one tight end and one running back on the field. And, often, all five are being sent out into routes, giving the quarterback five potential targets, whereas it might have been more like three on any given play for much of the NFL's history.
This has special relevance for someone like DeAndre Hopkins, who is going from a Texans team that ran 401 plays with either one or two WR on the field in 2019 to a Cardinals team that ran just 280. The Cardinals most common formation was a three-wide set, and their second-most common was a four-wide set, which they used 31% of the time; no other team even ran 10% of their snaps in such a formation.
So, when it comes time to project Hopkins, you've got to try to figure out what his usage is going to look like on a team like that first and foremost. It's fair to expect his target share to dip, and that's exactly what Heath and Ben project: Heath has Hopkins down for 141 targets and a 25% target share; Ben has him getting 148 and a 25.9% share. Both would be steps back for Hopkins, who had 150 targets and a 30.3% target share in 2019.
That's enough to drop Hopkins out of the elite tier at the position for both Heath and Ben, somewhere he'd been cemented for years. To get there in 2020, he'll need to command attention from Kyler Murray like he used to from Deshaun Watson despite more competition for targets, or he'll need to be a beast in the red zone.
Both are definitely possible, but it's not what our experts are expecting for 2020:
Heath Cummings' PPR WR projection tiers
320-plus points | 300-plus points | 285-plus points | 250-265 points |
Michael Thomas | D.J. Moore | ||
DeAndre Hopkins | |||
245-250 points | 235-240 points | 225-235 points | 210-225 points |
T.Y. Hilton | |||
A.J. Brown | |||
A.J. Green | DJ Chark | ||
195-210 points | 180-195 points | 160-180 points | 140-160 points |
D.K. Metcalf | |||
Laviska Shenault | |||
Henry Ruggs | |||
Heath Cummings' non-PPR WR projection tiers
200-210 points | 180-190 points | 160-170 |
Michael Thomas | Davante Adams | D.J. Moore |
Julio Jones | Kenny Golladay | |
Tyreek Hill | Chris Godwin | |
Amari Cooper | ||
Mike Evans | ||
Calvin Ridley | ||
Cooper Kupp | ||
155-160 points | 145-155 points | 135-145 points |
Adam Thielen | T.Y. Hilton | DJ Chark |
DeAndre Hopkins | A.J. Green | Keenan Allen |
Odell Beckham | Robert Woods | Stefon Diggs |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | Courtland Sutton | D.K. Metcalf |
Tyler Lockett | Michael Gallup | Devante Parker |
Allen Robinson | Terry McLaurin | Marvin Jones |
A.J. Brown | ||
120-130 points | 105-120 points | 90-105 points |
Julian Edelman | Will Fuller | Mecole Hardman |
Marquise Brown | Laviska Shenault | Brandon Aiyuk |
Jarvis Landry | Christian Kirk | Breshad Perriman |
John Brown | Preston Williams | Anthony Miller |
Brandin Cooks | Jamison Crowder | Henry Ruggs |
Tyler Boyd | Sterling Shepard | Justin Jefferson |
Deebo Samuel | CeeDee Lamb | Corey Davis |
Jerry Jeudy | DeSean Jackson | Jalen Reagor |
Allen Lazard | Robby Anderson | Emmanuel Sanders |
Golden Tate | Dede Westbrook | |
Diontae Johnson | Tyrell Williams | |
Darius Slayton | ||
Curtis Samuel | Larry Fitzgerald | |
Denzel Mims | ||
Mike Williams |
Ben Gretch's PPR WR projection tiers
330-plus points | 280-295 points | 260-275 points | 255-260 points |
Michael Thomas | Davante Adams | D.J. Moore | Cooper Kupp |
Tyreek Hill | DeAndre Hopkins | Tyler Lockett | |
Julio Jones | Chris Godwin | Robert Woods | |
Mike Evans | Allen Robinson | ||
Calvin Ridley | Kenny Golladay | ||
JuJu Smith-Schuster | |||
A.J. Brown | |||
230-240 points | 210-225 points | 195-205 points | 180-195 points |
Odell Beckham | Will Fuller | Michael Gallup | Jamison Crowder |
D.J. Chark | Keenan Allen | Christian Kirk | DeVante Parker |
Adam Thielen | A.J. Green | Courtland Sutton | Sterling Shepard |
Amari Cooper | D.K. Metcalf | Marvin Jones | Brandin Cooks |
T.Y. Hilton | Jarvis Landry | Diontae Johnson | John Brown |
Stefon Diggs | Julian Edelman | Marquise Brown | |
Terry McLaurin | Tyler Boyd | ||
160-170 points | 145-160 points | 130-140 points | 115-130 points |
Deebo Samuel | Curtis Samuel | Steven Sims | Sammy Watkins |
CeeDee Lamb | Mecole Hardman | Brandon Aiyuk | |
Laviska Shenault | Breshad Perriman | Anthony Miller | Emmanuel Sanders |
Jerry Jeudy | Henry Ruggs | Denzel Mims | |
Preston Williams | DeSean Jackson | Robby Anderson | |
Mike Williams | Justin Jefferson | ||
Darius Slayton | Allen Lazard | Corey Davis | |
Larry Fitzgerald | Jalen Reagor | ||
Golden Tate | |||
Ben Gretch's non-PPR WR projection tiers
200-210 points | 185-190 points | 170-180 points |
Michael Thomas | Davante Adams | Kenny Golladay |
Tyreek Hill | Julio Jones | Mike Evans |
D.J. Moore | ||
A.J. Brown | ||
Calvin Ridley | ||
Chris Godwin | ||
DeAndre Hopkins | ||
Tyler Lockett | ||
160-170 points | 150-160 points | 140-150 points |
Robert Woods | D.J. Chark | D.K. Metcalf |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | Adam Thielen | A.J. Green |
Cooper Kupp | Stefon Diggs | |
Allen Robinson | T.Y. Hilton | |
Odell Beckham | Amari Cooper | |
Terry McLaurin | ||
Will Fuller | ||
125-140 points | 100-120 points | 85-95 points |
Courtland Sutton | John Brown | Larry Fitzgerald |
Michael Gallup | Brandin Cooks | Allen Lazard |
Marvin Jones | Jamison Crowder | Justin Jefferson |
Christian Kirk | Sterling Shepard | Jerry Jeudy |
Keenan Allen | Mike Williams | Robby Anderson |
Jarvis Landry | Deebo Samuel | Henry Ruggs |
Julian Edelman | CeeDee Lamb | Brandon Aiyuk |
Tyler Boyd | Darius Slayton | Steven Sims |
Marquise Brown | Preston Williams | Anthony Miller |
DeVante Parker | N'Keal Harry | Jalen Reagor |
Diontae Johnson | Laviska Shenault | John Ross |
Mecole Hardman | ||
Curtis Samuel | ||
Golden Tate | ||
Breshad Perriman |
