2022 Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Best values on CBS, ESPN and Yahoo
Some of our favorite draft value variations on ESPN, Yahoo and CBS
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1 min read
Average draft position is a very helpful tool in determining who to draft and when, but it's only helpful if you're using the right ADP. That's why for years I've written this piece focusing on the ADP on each of the three main sites and how you can take advantage of it. Before we get into the players, it might be helpful to lean on why there's such a discrepancy. I'd suggest three main causes: analyst rankings, site projections, and momentum.
The first two are pretty simple. We rank players differently than ESPN and Yahoo analysts do. People who draft on those sites are more likely to be influenced by those analysts. That becomes obvious when you see that the gap between my rankings and ADP isn't near as big for the CBS values as it is for the other sites. This same principle applies to projections, which are often the way players are sorted by default in the draft room
Momentum is a similar concept in that once ADP is established at a site, most people don't want to reach too far above that number and most players won't fall too far past that number. That makes it difficult, if the rankings or projections don't change, for ADP to change much.
Now let's get to the players below. You'll notice the QBs aren't much of a value at all but that's because ADP has most quarterbacks getting drafted before I'd take them. If you find one in the same round, that makes them a good value. For the ESPN and Yahoo players I would suggest hedging between my ranking and the ADP. Don't reach all the way to my ranking, but don't wait all the way to the ADP or someone may beat you to them.
CBS Values
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Fields is a cheaper version of Trey Lance. Of course, the reason he's cheaper is that he doesn't have Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle or Kyle Shanahan. Still, he has 2021 Jalen Hurts upside, and you don't generally find that in Round 10 or 11. If you draft Fields, just pair him with someone like Kirk Cousins or Matthew Stafford so you have both his floor and ceiling covered.
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I get to say something nice about Kyle Pitts! I'm usually lamenting his early ADP, but on CBS he's available in Round 4 and I love it. He's one of the most talented tight ends in the league who should improve on last year's record-breaking season. He's the only one I could reasonably see challenging Mark Andrews or Travis Kelce.
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Brown is one of a dozen wide receivers I love in Round 3. There's really no doubt about his talent or his opportunity, it's just whether he can stay healthy. If he does, a top-five season is absolutely possible, maybe even higher if Jalen Hurts makes a leap like Josh Allen did in Year 3.
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Bill Belichick keeps complimenting Stevenson in the passing game and we keep getting more excited about the possibility of him splitting early downs with Damien Harris and taking on a majority of the James White role. If that happens, Stevenson will be a low-end No. 2 running back. If Harris gets hurt, he'll be much better than that.
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The CBS crew seems to be the highest on Michael Thomas, and even I'm not as high as Dave and Jamey. Thomas was the best PPR wide receiver in Fantasy the last time we saw him at 100%. I don't believe he'll do that again, but if he can stay healthy, there's no reason he can't be a top-12 option.
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I've been worried all offseason about Penny getting hurt again, but right now it's Ken Walker who is injured and seemingly unlikely to be ready for Week 1. Penny was the No. 5 running back in Fantasy over the final six weeks of 2022 and absolutely has top-12 upside early in the year if Walker isn't ready. He's a perfect Zero-RB target to get you started on a good foot, but make sure you have plenty of depth behind him.
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Late values: Marcus Mariota (two-QB only), Dontrell Hilliard, Mike Davis, Nico Collins, Sterling Shepard
ESPN Values
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Lamar Jackson is my No. 4 quarterback but I don't really have any separation between him and the top three. He's shown as much upside as any quarterback in football and last year's woes were mostly about bad touchdown luck, a bad offensive line, and worse running back play. I expect all those things to improve this year and Jackson to once again challenge for QB1 overall.
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Goedert has great rapport with Jalen Hurts, and while his target share should go down because of A.J. Brown, I expect the team's total passes to increase enough to cover that. Like Jackson, touchdown regression should help Goedert this year as well and he's already an ability to produce elite efficiency. I would not be surprised if he finished as a top three tight end this year.
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Montgomery has averaged 20 touches per game over the past two seasons and produced one RB1 season and another solid RB2 season on a pair of miserable offenses with bad offensive line play. I expect Fields will help his efficiency and their lack of weapons at wide receiver will increase his role in the passing game. Montgomery is being drafted as a low-end No. 2 running back, but he'll finish top-12 if he plays 16 games.
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There is an underrated chance that Mike Williams is simply the best wide receiver on the Chargers in all formats this year. He already out produced Keenan Allen in non-PPR last year and that was with Williams greatly underperforming expectations in the red zone and falling flat midseason when he was battling a knee injury. He has top-eight upside if he simply puts together his start and finish to 2021 over a full season.
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Courtland Sutton appears to be Russell Wilson's favorite target, and this looks like a match made in heaven. Sutton is the team's best downfield target and Wilson is one of the best downfield throwers in the league. Sutton has dominated targets in the end zone throughout his career and Wilson has one of the highest touchdown rates among all active quarterbacks. I spend more time worried about being too low on Sutton than being too high.
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Late values: Melvin Gordon, Jamaal Williams, Mark Ingram, George Pickens, Michael Gallup, Evan Engram
Yahoo values
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Brady is going anywhere between QB9-11 on several sites, and I have him ranked as QB6. If I don't land Jackson or Jalen Hurts, Brady is usually my next target. He was nearly as good as Josh Allen last year and he still has one of the best sets of weapons in the NFL. He's also likely to lead the NFL in pass attempts, which helps make up for the fact that he won't run.
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It's more likely that Andrews finishes as TE1 again than it is that someone else passes him if he stays healthy. Over his career, Andrews has garnered targets and air yards like an elite No. 1 wide receiver whenever Marquise Brown is off the field. While Rashod Bateman should pick up some of the slack left by Brown, Andrews is locked in as an alpha No. 1 in an offense that should score far more often than it did last year.
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It's unlikely Edmonds is ever a 20-touch running back, but that's true for a half dozen running backs in front of him. He should dominate running back targets and see 10-12 carries per game, which should be plenty in Mike McDaniel's system. If Edmonds also gets red-zone work then we could be looking at a top-15 running back and the perfect Zero-RB target.
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I fear that Pierce is eventually going to soar past my Round 6 or 7 valuation, but drafters on Yahoo are going to have to scroll for a while before they find him. Pierce graded out very well at Florida but just didn't receive enough touches. Considering his main competition in Houston is Marlon Mack and Rex Burkhead, touches shouldn't be a problem.
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If you've read anything I've written this summer, you likely know how I feel about D.J. Moore. He's shown elite ability to earn targets in 2021 and elite efficiency in 2020. But what about the touchdowns? Well, he's scored more than 25% of the Panthers' touchdowns over the past three seasons, about the same rate as Stefon Diggs. The Panthers just haven't scored enough through the air. Baker Mayfield and his career 4.8% touchdown rate should help that. Don't be surprised if D.J. Moore doubles his career-high in touchdowns this season and finishes as a top-five wide receiver.
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Brandin Cooks is always undervalued and he could have fit into the CBS or ESPN section as well. He's the clear No. 1 in Houston, and I expect an increase in total team passes and Davis Mills' efficiency will produce a top-12 season for Cooks. Thankfully, you don't have to draft him anywhere close to that.
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As soon as Chris Godwin is 100% I would expect him to be Tom Brady's No. 1 wide receiver and a top-10 option in Fantasy. What you have to ask yourself is where do you draft him if you have to wait until Week 4 or Week 5 for that to happen. Wide receiver is deep enough that I don't penalize Godwin too much for what I would expect will be a slow start. I don't think you'll care about that slow start when he's carrying your team in December.
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Late values: James Robinson, Nyheim Hines, Isiah Pacheco, Khalil Herbert, Robert Woods, Treylon Burks, Cole Kmet
