2022 Fantasy Football: Jamey Eisenberg's Busts 4.0 feature Aaron Rodgers among big names who will fall short
These players are being drafted more on reputation than likely production
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1 min read
I have written several versions of sleepers, breakouts and busts from the start of the offseason in February until now. And with the majority of Fantasy drafts set to happen from Labor Day weekend until the first game Thursday between the Bills and Rams, it's time for one final edition of busts.
This is Busts 4.0 -- the All-Star Edition. Here are my Breakouts and Sleepers.
The only way to determine a bust, in fairness, is by Average Draft Position, and we're using the CBS Sports ADP data as a guide. These guys are still worth drafting in the majority of leagues, but you want to make sure you get them at the right price. And based on the CBS Sports ADP, the price is wrong on the bust candidates listed here.
Quarterbacks
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I've written off Rodgers enough times over the past few years to know this posting can come back to haunt me. But this season feels different. You need playmakers to succeed, and Rodgers lost two of his top receivers this offseason in Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Without Adams, Rodgers might not finish as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback this year. Now, Rodgers has done fine without Adams in a small sample size over the past three seasons. In seven games without Adams over that span, Rodgers has four outings with at least 30 Fantasy points and only two games with 19 points or less. Hopefully that continues. But if Rodgers goes into the season with guys like Allen Lazard, Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins and rookies in Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs in prominent spots, it will be hard to justify drafting Rodgers as a starting Fantasy quarterback. As such, he's ranked closer to No. 15 for me than in the top 10. I'm not drafting Rodgers as a starter this year.
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Running Backs
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It's positive that Cowboys owner Jerry Jones is saying all the right things about Elliott and wanting to keep giving him the ball. And Elliott said he's healthy after playing through a knee injury for most of last season. I'm hopeful that Elliott rebounds in 2022, but 2021 was frustrating for Elliott and Fantasy managers who rostered him. And it's hard to justify drafting him in the first three rounds this season. Elliott went 10 games in a row last year with fewer than 55 rushing yards, and he became touchdown dependent to save his Fantasy production. He did have some productive games as a receiver, including three outings with at least six catches, but Tony Pollard looked like the best running back in Dallas almost every time he touched the field. We'll see how Elliott does in tandem with Pollard, but Pollard is expected to have a bigger role in the passing game. And now the offensive line is worse with left tackle Tyron Smith (hamstring) for most of the year. Elliott is no longer a running back to covet on Draft Day, and even Round 3 is too soon for my liking. The earliest you should draft Elliott is Round 5.
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Jacobs is being drafted too high as a borderline Round 3 pick, and I won't draft him until Round 5 at the earliest. I'm concerned that he'll have a limited role in the passing game because of Ameer Abdullah, and Zamir White might also take Jacobs off the field for significant stretches. Last year, Jacobs set a new career high in receptions with 54 on 64 targets, but the bulk of that came when Kenyan Drake and Darren Waller were injured. Abdullah and White are replacing Drake, and Waller is back at 100 percent, along with the significant addition of Davante Adams. While Jacobs can still matter on the ground -- he has at least seven touchdowns and 1,100 total yards in each season of his career -- he could struggle as a Fantasy asset if he's not scoring touchdowns. I prefer Jacobs as a flex option in PPR this year.
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I'm fine drafting Akers as a low-end starter this year, but not at the end of Round 4. Round 6 feels like a good spot for him given the up-and-down nature of his offseason. It started out positive with Sean McVay telling me at the NFL owners meeting that Akers was expected to resume his lead role in the Rams backfield. McVay was excited that Akers returned earlier than expected from last year's Achilles tear to help Los Angeles win the Super Bowl, and McVay was hopeful a full offseason would help Akers get back to his 2020 form. And that still might happen, but McVay spent all of training camp saying that Akers and Darrell Henderson were basically in a timeshare. Then both Akers and Henderson missed practice time in training camp with soft-tissue injuries, and the Rams seem to have interest in using rookie Kyren Williams on passing downs. Again, Akers might rise above all of this and play at a high level, but I don't want to reach for him in Round 4. If you can get Akers at a better cost, he could return value as a low-end starter or flex.
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Harris might be one of the worst values of any player based on the CBS Sports ADP. I can't fathom, especially in PPR, why any Fantasy manager would target him as a starter in Round 5. Rhamondre Stevenson or Ty Montgomery (ankle) should play on passing downs -- Stevenson is someone to target in all leagues -- and Harris is going to again be reliant on touchdowns. Now, he could score 15 touchdowns again, and he averaged over 4.6 yards per carry for the second year in a row. But Harris has just 23 receptions on 28 targets in three years. He also could struggle if the Patriots aren't winning since he had four games with 11 PPR points or less in the seven outings he appeared in when New England lost, including the playoffs. I don't want to chase touchdowns, and Harris' lack of work in the passing game is troublesome. He's a good flex, but he's not someone you want to draft as a must-start running back this year, especially in PPR.
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Wide Receivers
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Samuel is going to be very good this year. I'm not sure he's going to be superhuman like he was in 2021, and I don't want to draft him as the No. 6 receiver off the board. He was outstanding last season in his breakout campaign when he averaged 21.2 PPR points per game, and it was amazing to watch him dominate as a receiver and rusher. But can he come close to doing that again this season? If you take away his rushing production (59 carries for 365 yards and eight touchdowns) he was still an elite receiver with 77 catches for 1,405 yards and six touchdowns on 121 targets. But that puts him at 16.3 PPR points per game, which would have been the No. 13 receiver last season. He will still get touches in the backfield, but whatever he loses there brings down his Fantasy value. And we don't know how he will mesh with Trey Lance over a full season. Lance started two games for the 49ers last year, and Samuel averaged 15.5 PPR points in those outings. But he had just six catches for 121 yards and a touchdown over that span on 15 targets, as well as eight carries for 32 yards and a touchdown. Again, without the rushing prowess, Samuel struggles a little. He could easily be a do-it-all threat again and dominate for the 49ers and Fantasy managers, and he could do it with Lance instead of Jimmy Garoppolo. Or he could just be very good instead of elite. I tend to pass on Samuel in Round 2 because of the risk.
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Evans is fine as a Round 3 pick, but I'm a little concerned about drafting him as the No. 8 receiver off the board in PPR. With Tampa Bay adding Russell Gage and Julio Jones, as well as Chris Godwin (knee) being ready for the start of the season, Evans might not see the 7.1 targets per game he averaged last year. And while he scored 27 touchdowns in two seasons with Tom Brady, he only averaged 72 catches for 1,020.5 yards over that span. Evans still commands the No. 1 cornerback in coverage from opposing teams, which shows the respect he still has around the league, but that leads to Brady not always throwing in his direction. I don't expect Evans to have a down season, but if his touchdowns fall to single digits, he might not reward you for drafting him this high.
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There's a lot to love about Waddle after a standout rookie campaign in 2021. He set the NFL rookie record for receptions last year with 104, and he finished with 1,015 receiving yards and six touchdowns on 140 targets. He averaged 15.3 PPR points per game. But he's being drafted as if Tyreek Hill isn't on the Dolphins, which doesn't make sense. He's also dealing with a leg injury that kept him out of practice for more than two weeks, and his status for Week 1 against New England remains a mystery. Now, you can say that Waddle can still lead the Dolphins in receptions, and his rapport with Tua Tagovailoa is strong going back to their days at Alabama. But it's hard to imagine another season of 140 targets for Waddle with Hill on the roster. I'm fine with Waddle's ADP in Round 5 in PPR, but I don't want to draft him as a top-20 Fantasy receiver in any format.
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I'm nervous about trusting Metcalf with Geno Smith under center, and I won't draft him as a top 24 Fantasy receiver this year in the majority of leagues. Smith started three games last year for the Seahawks when Russell Wilson was out with a broken finger, and Metcalf scored three touchdowns over that span. But he also averaged just six targets per game, 3.2 catches per game and 65.7 yards per game over that span. You can see what the downside is if Metcalf doesn't score touchdowns, and that's why I would rather get Metcalf as a No. 3 Fantasy option in the majority of leagues. I hope he proves me wrong because he's fun to watch, but Smith isn't going to make Metcalf better as a Fantasy option. I'm also worried about Tyler Lockett, but his ADP is more reasonable at 118.76.
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Tight Ends
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Gesicki might have been better off being traded from Miami this offseason given his expected role for the Dolphins. He's going to play more like a traditional tight end, and I'm not sure that suits his game. The Dolphins will likely lean on Tyreek Hill and Waddle, and Gesicki could compete for targets with Cedrick Wilson and Chase Edmonds, among others. I'm also surprised about this optimism for Gesicki as a No. 1 Fantasy tight end given that he hasn't exactly been a standout option. He averaged just 9.7 PPR points per game last year, and I doubt he will improve on that level of production. Some guys being drafted after him that I prefer include Cole Kmet, David Njoku, Pat Freirmuth and Tyler Higbee, and I would much rather wait for them than target Gesicki this year.
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