Fantasy Football 2023 Draft Prep: Why drafting a QB early makes sense, as long as it's the right QB

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Last year in the CBS Sports/Beckett Sports Fantasy Football magazine, I made the case for why the era of the early-round quarterback was back, and this year, it seems like folks are starting to listen. The Fantasy Football expert community has long railed against the idea of taking quarterbacks in the early rounds of Fantasy drafts. But, as you can see when you check out our mock draft after this year's magazine becomes available, three quarterbacks went inside the first 30 picks and seven were off the board within the first 50 picks. Go back just to last year's draft, and the seventh QB didn't come off the board until the 101st pick.

As it turns out, the normies may have known more than the experts all along. Though, it's possible that, having learned the lesson, our side of things is now overlearning the lessons of the past few seasons.

Because while it makes a lot of sense to take one of those elite quarterbacks in the early rounds, it might be a mistake to chase the rest of the position.

The case for the Tier 1 QBs

Last season, having one of the elite quarterbacks was one of the most consistent week-in, week-out advantages you could have in Fantasy Football. In six-point-per-pass-TD leagues, Patrick Mahomes averaged 29.3 points per game, Josh Allen was at 29.1, while Jalen Hurts dropped 28.1 and Joe Burrow was at 26.3. No other QB even got to 23, and the only one who topped 22 was Lamar Jackson, who missed most of the final six games of the season.

The gap between the No. 3 QB and the No. 6 QB in 2022 was 6.2 points, or roughly equivalent to the gap between RB3 and RB21; it's the same as the gap between WR3 and WR20. The only other similar edge you could have gotten last season was at tight end, where Travis Kelce was more than five points per game clear of the No. 2 option, because Travis Kelce belongs on the Fantasy Football Mount Rushmore at this point.

You also see it in the number of top-six finishes at the position that trio had. Despite Allen missing a game and Hurts missing two, they were the only three quarterbacks to finish in the top six at the position more than seven times – Allen did it nine times, Hurts had 10 top-six finishes, while Mahomes had a whopping 12. Those three accounted for 30% of all top-six finishes across the position last season. It wasn't just the upside that made them stand out, but the consistency.

Of course, there's no guarantee that Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts will be that good again, but it seems like a pretty safe bet to make. Hurts and Allen are incredible runners, while Mahomes might be the best passer ever, and he's in a creative, pass-first offense that always maximizes scoring opportunities. There might be some regression coming from any of the three, but it makes sense to tier them on their own and expect them to once again be the class of the position. Allen has averaged at least 27.6 points per game for three seasons in a row, while Mahomes has been at 28.9 or better in three of five seasons as a starter.

Hurts is kind of a one-year wonder, but he also put up 22.5 points per game in 2021 before taking a leap after the addition of A.J. Brown. Given that the weapons and offense around him remain elite, he figures to remain an elite Fantasy option, and I have no problem taking him once Mahomes and Allen are off the board. It might be tough to repeat last season's 13 rushing touchdowns … except he had 10 the year before! This is just who Jalen Hurts is.

So, when should they come off the board? The second round for Mahomes and Allen -- in that order, in my opinion, but I think it's fine to prefer Allen -- with Hurts coming off the board shortly after in the third round.

The case against the Tier 1 QBs

Of course, you have to consider what you're sacrificing by taking one of those elite quarterbacks. In my case, it usually means no Travis Kelce in Round 1 or Mark Andrews in Round 3, which is a tough pill to swallow, because an elite tight end is a huge edge, too.

You can go with both Mahomes and Kelce, but it's best to do this as part of a zero-RB build, where you just pound the best wide receivers available for four or five straight rounds beginning in the third. Ending up with Mahomes, Kelce, and let's say Jaylen Waddle, DK Metcalf, Chris Godwin, and Terry McLaurin isn't the worst outcome in the world. You just have to be willing to stomach a running back group made up of the likes of Isiah Pacheco, Cam Akers, Alvin Kamara, and Khalil Herbert as your top options … and you know what, I might be starting to talk myself into this.

Of course, the way most people will approach the early-round QB equation is to pair them with one elite running back and one elite wide receiver. If you're going to take one of those top three quarterbacks, I think a Hero-RB build makes sense. That means pairing Mahomes/Allen/Hurts with a first-round running back and then prioritizing other positions, either by snagging Mark Andrews in Round 3 or loading up on wide receivers. You'll miss out on the truly elite tier at that position, which I don't love, but the edge you get at QB will hopefully help make up for it.

But, if you're sticking to the Fantasy Football industry dogma about passing on early-round quarterbacks, the hit you take at WR and/or RB is the reason why.

What about paying up for the next-best thing?

You might notice I've only really talked about three guys so far. But if you look at that mock draft appearing in the magazine, you'll see that there really wasn't a clear distinction between the tiers at the position. Lamar Jackson went off the board just three picks after Allen, with Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, and Justin Fields following before the end of the fourth round. Seven quarterbacks in the span of 23 picks kind of sounds like just one big tier, doesn't it?

Burrow wasn't far off from that elite tier last season at 26.3 points per game, while Herbert was at 26 points per game in each of his first two seasons before struggling in 2022. Both Jackson and Fields have the rushing ability to replicate Hurts' 2022 season (and Jackson's already done it once). I have no problem slotting those four in as the clear next tier at the position.

But I think there needs to be more distance between that tier and the first one, and there typically is. In NFC drafts as of mid-June, Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts each has an average draft position inside of the first 18 picks, with Burrow coming in at 22.1, following by Herbert, Fields, and Jackson between 36 and 44 in ADP – Trevor Lawrence also comes in at 39.8, though I think he belongs in the next tier down.

Which is to say, if Hurts or Allen goes off the board in the second or third round, that next tier should probably be coming off the board in the fifth and sixth, ideally. If they do, I'm happy to snag any one of Jackson, Burrow, Herbert, or Fields (in that order) if I didn't take one of the big three. But once they start getting pushed into the third or fourth, I have to back away.

So, what if you wait?

That means there will be plenty of times when, despite being the guy pounding the table for early-round quarterbacks, I end up waiting quite a while to take one. The aforementioned draft from the upcoming magazine is an example: I passed on Mahomes in the second round, knowing that my colleagues tend not to prioritize quarterbacks and thinking I could still end up with Allen or Hurts in the third.

When that didn't happen, I had to pivot. And, when that next tier went off the board in quick succession, it became clear I was going to be waiting at quarterback for this draft. Anthony Richardson's rushing potential makes him someone I like to target if I'm not going for the top tier, but he went off the board in the seventh round, and that was too early for me. So, I was content to wait until around 100 overall to make my move, opting for Tua Tagovailoa, who was on pace for 5,000 yards, 37 touchdowns and 24 Fantasy points per game in his healthy games last season.

Tagovailoa has the potential to be a 25-PPG guy, and he's a top-10 QB for me. Of course, his recurring concussion issues last season are a major red flag and could leave me right where I absolutely don't want to be at this point -- streaming the QB position. So, if you would rather go with someone like Deshaun Watson, Dak Prescott or Geno Smith in the later rounds, that's reasonable enough, though I think Watson is probably the only one of that group with a reasonable chance for 25-PPG upside, which is what we're looking for.

If you wait at QB, you probably want to take two of them and see how the early-season plays out. Pairing one of Tagovailoa, Watson, Prescott or Smith with an upside dice roll like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray, or even a real long shot like Trey Lance is a reasonable option, knowing you can drop them quickly if they don't work out.

The problem is, the reason those high-end guys mostly dominate is because they combine good (often great) passing with good (often great) rushing, and there aren't a lot of guys who can do that. Richardson has that potential, but he's a top-75 pick in most leagues; Daniel Jones is a great runner, but I don't buy him taking more than a marginal step forward as a passer. Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford can be productive passers, but there's no rushing upside there, and I don't really buy young guys like Brock Purdy, Kenny Pickett, or any of the other rookies being productive enough to be must-start options.

What I really want to avoid this season is being stuck streaming the QB position. It worked out OK last year with guys like Jared Goff and Geno Smith leading unexpectedly explosive offenses, but you can't count on that every year; in 2021, only three quarterbacks outside of the top 15 in ADP managed more than two top-six finishes, and Kirk Cousins was the only one who was a top-12 QB more than seven times.

The days of waiting on QB and being able to compete with the best of the position seem long gone. The top QBs are in their prime, with dual-threat capabilities nearly across the board that raise both their floor and their ceiling. If you don't end up with one of them, you're behind the game nowadays.

This article appears in the CBS Sports/Beckett Sports 2023 Fantasy Football Magazine. Pick up your copy at newsstands in mid-August.