javonte-williams-1400.jpg
USATSI

Hello, everyone. Dan Schneier (@DanSchneierNFL) here and it's crunch time for you in preparation for your final Fantasy Football drafts this weekend. The first two rounds of the draft are fairly straight forward, but after that is when things get tricky. So today, we're going to try to tackle the best value draft pick in each of the five following rounds after the first two. 

At the start of each week from now until the end of the Fantasy season, I'll be organizing a panel of sorts asking questions of our FFT team and they will be delivering answers. We'll hear from Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Chris Towers, Heath Cummings and Adam Aizer. If you have any burning questions you want to be answered, reach out to me on Twitter @DanSchneierNFL. If the questions are good, I'll work them into the weekly panel.

*We'll be using CBS Sports ADP data.*

Also, mark your calendars because tonight is the Fantasy Football Today Draft-A-Thon. Here are the details:

  • Live at 6 p.m. ET on CBS Sports HQ and the FFT YouTube page until midnight.
  • We're raising money for our friends at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital with a ton of cool giveaways and special experiences and items to bid on.
  • We'll have a ton of industry guests and pro players joining from the Fantasy industry and elsewhere to help us out.
  • We're answering your questions live all night long to help you get ready for the biggest draft weekend of the year. 

It's going to be a ton of fun and it's all for a great cause, so make sure you subscribe to our YouTube channel so you don't miss it. 

Without further ado, let's dive into this week's questions:

1. Who is your favorite Round 3 (ADP 25-36) value?

Adam: Every WR being drafted in this round -- Justin Jefferson, Keenan Allen, A.J. Brown and Terry McLaurin -- is a great value. Jefferson and Brown stand out in particular. Those two have legitimate potential to finish as top three  WRs. I don't see quite as much upside for Allen or McLaurin, but they aren't far behind. For the record, Allen, Brown and Jefferson were all top 10 WRs per game in 2020 and Brown and Jefferson may be able to reach a new level in 2021. Jefferson had the best rookie WR season in history. Brown has been incredibly efficient in his two NFL seasons. Allen was on pace for 118 catches when Justin Herbert was his QB. McLaurin gets a huge QB upgrade this season. If you draft your first WR in Round 3 and it's one of these guys, you're off to a great start.

Dave: If you want to have an edge over at least half of your league, you need to invest in a quality tight end. Darren Waller is worth the early-round pick based on finishing as the No. 2 tight end in total PPR points each of the past two seasons. Last year, he amassed a preposterous 26.3% target share from his quarterbacks, more than what Travis Kelce got from Patrick Mahomes. He also was second in the entire league in both red-zone targets (22) and red-zone receptions (18). That's not about to change no matter what improvements the Raiders think they've made to their passing games.  Finding a difference-maker at a thin position in Round 3 is a gift. I'd be comfortable taking Waller before the end of Round 2.

Jamey: I would draft A.J. Brown in Round 2, so getting him in Round 3 is somewhat of a steal. He should remain the No. 1 receiver for the Titans ahead of Julio Jones, and hopefully Brown is healthy for most of the season. He's scored at least 15 PPR points in nine of his past 13 games, and he has top-three upside heading into this year. Brown should be going ahead of DK Metcalf, who has a Round 2 ADP. I also like him ahead of George Kittle and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who also have a Round 2 ADP.

Chris: James Robinson. We'll see where Robinson settles, but his 34.4 ADP on CBS is right in line with his 33.4 ADP in NFC drafts since the Travis Etienne injury news broke. That is simply far, far too low. Robinson was a top-20 pick prior to the NFL draft -- after the Jaguars had signed Carlos Hyde -- and now we're dropping him a round-plus for being in the same situation? Will Robinson repeat his 2020 numbers? Perhaps not, but he doesn't need to be a top-six back to be a great value here. I'm willing to take Robinson in the second round, but if I can get him in the third, I'm thrilled. 

Heath: A.J. Brown has the upside to be the No. 1 wide receiver in Fantasy as early as 2021 and he's following the Tyreek Hill path to get there. Brown's elite efficiency is matched only by his physical ability, and the addition of Julio Jones only makes me more certain he won't see a major statistical regression. I have him projected for 1,400 yards and 12 touchdowns, but I don't believe that is the ceiling. 

2. Who is your favorite Round 4 (ADP 37-48) value?

Adam: David Montgomery is the first pick of this round and he seems like the best value by far. The next RBs off the board are Josh Jacobs, D'Andre Swift, Myles Gaskin and Mike Davis. Montgomery is clearly ahead of those RBs for me. In fact, I think Montgomery is an early Round 3 pick, so having him available in Round 4 is a steal. There are some concerns with Montgomery that can't be overlooked. He averaged 3.65 ypc in the first 25 games of his career, but 5.2 ypc in his most recent six games. Those six games were against mostly easy competition. But I love him in Round 4 because he doesn't have a lot of competition for touches and I assume he'll have a decent role in the passing game.

Dave: I don't understand why people aren't excited to draft Allen Robinson. Is it because Andy Dalton is starting for the Bears in Week 1? That's actually an upgrade over what Robinson's dealt with for his entire career, and the rookie behind Dalton figures to be an even bigger upgrade! Robinson has seen over 150 targets in each of the past two seasons, posting at least 15.5 PPR points per game in 2019 and 2020. When Justin Fields takes over, expect Robinson to see a bevy of catchable targets, higher than the 69% he had in 2020. There's no doubt about his status in Fantasy Football, but the buzz other wideouts have created has kind of overshadowed Robinson. That's left him as a terrific value in Round 4.

Jamey: There's a lot to like about this round when looking at the CBS Sports ADP, but Robert Woods should be considered a Round 3 pick based on his upside with the addition of quarterback Matthew Stafford. That should help Cooper Kupp also, but Woods has a higher ceiling given the additional production you'll get from him on the ground. He could be a top-10 PPR receiver this year. If you start your team RB-RB then you should love landing Woods as your potential No. 1 wide receiver, especially if he's available in Round 4.

Chris: You're going to notice a theme here -- all of my favorite values from here on out are wide receivers. This is in keeping with research I did earlier this offseason about what the ideal Draft Day plan is, based on historical results. Running backs are good values in the first two to three rounds, and then after that it's a total crapshoot. Which means wide receivers are going to tend to be better values from that point on, and that's the case here. In the range where Robinson is going, you're choosing between him or Josh Jacobs (low pass-catching ceiling), D'Andre Swift (currently injured), Myles Gaskin and Mike Davis, both of whom have questions about how much they'll be used. Robinson on the other hand, is a legitimate, proven elite Fantasy wide receiver, a proven high-volume alpha who may just have the best QB he's ever played with in Justin Fields. He's a top-six wide receiver and a top-21 player for me, and an easy pick here. 

Heath: D'Andre Swift was one of my favorite breakout candidates in Round 2, so I love him in Round 4. Yes, the groin is concerning, but now it's priced in. Anthony Lynn has consistently been among the top five in opportunities created for running backs and Swift showed us last year that he can produce even on a bad offense. Christian McCaffrey and Austin Ekeler are the only running backs I have projected for more catches than Swift.

3. Who is your favorite Round 5 (ADP 49-60) value?

Adam: The two TEs in this round -- Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts -- stand out as great values. If you are not going to take a QB like Dak Prescott or Tom Brady in Round 5, then you're looking at a lot of WRs with question marks or the aforementioned TEs. For the most part, I like the WRs in this round (Chris Godwin, Tyler Lockett, Adam Thielen, Julio Jones and DJ Moore), but they carry some risk. This is one of your last chances to get a difference maker at TE, so go ahead and take Mark Andrews or Kyle Pitts. I even think T.J. Hockenson is justifiable here. Of those three, I'll take Andrews. He could lead the Ravens in targets and I'd be shocked if he didn't lead the Ravens in touchdown catches. The injuries at WR for Baltimore could lead to an incredible start for Andrews. 

Dave: Chris Godwin had 15-plus PPR points in seven of 12 games and 13-plus PPR points in nine of 12 last year. That's some good consistency with a nice, safe floor. But the real brilliance to Godwin's game was the connection he built with Tom Brady. Get this -- Brady had eight games in 2020 with at least 25 Fantasy points (six points for passing touchdowns). One was without Godwin; of the remaining seven, Godwin amassed 15-plus PPR points in six. The correlation is that when Brady has a big game, Godwin's part of the reason for it, and Brady figures to have a bunch of big games this year. It also feels good to know that Godwin averaged 7.1 targets per game in the 11 games, including the playoffs, Antonio Brown was around for. That's a safe expectation for a safe PPR receiver you can get in Round 5.

Jamey: Tyler Lockett was frustrating last season with six games of at least 17 PPR points and seven games with eight PPR points or fewer. Still, he remains a primary target for Russell Wilson and actually had three more targets than Metcalf last year (132-129). Hopefully, Seattle's revamped passing attack under new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron will help Lockett be more consistent, and he has top-10 upside in all leagues. As you can see through Round 5 based on just the selections I've listed, the receiver spot is extremely deep this season.

Chris: Julio Jones (55.8). And Jones' ADP is falling in response to concerns about a lower leg injury that has limited him for much of training camp. However, he's been making progress in practice since and coach Mike Vrabel told reporters he expects to have Jones back in time for Week 1. It's not a great sign for a 32-year-old who has struggled with injuries in recent years, but that risk is already well baked into his price at this point. Jones was as good as ever when he was on the field last season (11.3 yards per target), and he'll see less defensive attention than ever playing alongside A.J. Brown. He won't get the 150-plus targets we've gotten used to, but he should continue to be one of the most efficient players in the NFL catching passes from Ryan Tannehill. I love him as an upside play in Round 5. 

Heath: Most of the quarterbacks are being drafted too early in CBS leagues, so when I see Dak Prescott in Round 5 I want to jump all over it. Prescott was the No. 1 QB in FPPG last year despite the fact that he only played a half in one of his five games. Since Kellen Moore took over as offensive coordinator, Prescott has averaged 329.6 passing yards per game. If he does that over 17 games, he'll break Peyton Manning's single-season record.

4. Who is your favorite Round 6 (ADP 61-72) value?

Adam: Darrell Henderson has fallen far enough! I think Round 6 is a good time to take him. I still expect him to be the starter as long as he is not injured (which is always a risk with Henderson) and the Rams tend to produce a lot of rushing TDs for their RBs under Sean McVay. Another RB in this round - Javonte Williams - is interesting when contrasting him to Henderson. If you're looking to get off to a more solid start and want some safety, you should take Henderson. If you love your team or trust your ability to get RB depth later in the draft and you want a potential second half league-winner, Williams is your guy. Perhaps I'm counting out Melvin Gordon too quickly, but I feel like the Broncos moved up in the NFL Draft to take Williams for a reason. He is a tackle-breaking machine and someone with big upside that I suspect will be realized later in the season.

Dave: The best PPR receiver value on Draft Day is Diontae Johnson. I can't believe the price tag for a potential 100-catch guy who proved again this preseason that he's the best all-around talent in the Steelers passing game. JuJu Smith-Schuster is a reliable short- and mid-range target from the slot, and Chase Claypool has some dominant traits, but Johnson moves fast, gains separation from everyone easily and still has the trust of his quarterback even though he had 15 drops last year. I thought the Steelers offensive line protected Ben Roethlisberger well this preseason and shouldn't quite be the liability on passing downs that we feared this offseason. And even with Najee Harris taking plenty of touches, there should still be a large dose of targets for Johnson most weeks. I think it's good value to take him in Round 5, but our ADP screams amazing value if you can get him in Round 6!

Jamey: I'm torn on several players to list for this round, including Diontae Johnson, Damien Harris and Jerry Jeudy, but I went with T.J. Hockenson given his price tag compared to guys like Mark Andrews and Kyle Pitts. In PPR, Hockenson might be the best of this trio given his expected target share in Detroit. If you want the last of the Super Six tight ends (Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, Kittle, Andrews, Pitts and Hockenson) then you can wait until Round 6 to get one of my favorite breakout candidates this year in Hockenson.

Chris: Jerry Jeudy (71.8). Jeudy's ADP is skyrocketing, up 14 spots in the last week, but it's still not to the point where I'm scared of taking him. He's a fifth-rounder for me, which is aggressive, but I think Jeudy is worth it. He's a dynamic playmaker with the ball in his hands who also has the ability to get open down the field, and that combination is what makes him such a special talent. I'm not worried about the drops remaining an issue, and while Teddy Bridgewater isn't the highest-ceiling quarterback, he should provide some stability for Jeudy, who could very well emerge as a top-10 wide receiver this year. He's that talented. 

Heath: The Sony Michel trade really scared people off of Darrell Henderson, who has fallen back into Round 6 in ADP. This makes me more excited about Zero_RB builds because I expect Henderson to be a solid RB2 for as long as he stays healthy and there should be little doubt he has top-12 upside. This Rams offense has averaged 18 running back touchdowns per season over the past three years.

Who is your favorite Round 7 (ADP 73-84) value?

Adam: Another round with incredible WR value. When I see that Chase Claypool, Tee Higgins, Ja'Marr Chase, Kenny Golladay, Courtland Sutton and Michael Thomas are still on the board here, it makes me feel better if I skipped out on the WRs in Rounds 4-5. My favorite in this group is Higgins. In his past six games before Joe Burrow's injury, Higgins was on a 16-game pace of 85 catches, 1,408 yards and 5 TDs on 123 targets. He reached 70 or more receiving yards in five of those six games. Yes, he has a lot of target competition, but Higgins would probably have been a Round 3 or 4 pick in Fantasy if the Bengals had not drafted Chase. Getting Higgins in Round 7 is too good to pass up. Really, all of these WRs could return great value and finish in the Top 20. If you're considering starting your team with two RBs, the WRs available in Round 7 should give you more confidence in that strategy.

Dave: It's one thing to look like a rookie and have a couple of drops here and there. It's another when you're a top-five overall pick and your last four preseason targets are all dropped. But I'm choosing to ignore the butterfingers in meaningless preseason games (with three throws from a backup quarterback) and opting to go with Ja'Marr Chase's game-breaking skill set from his days with Joe Burrow at LSU. The kind of speed and separation he had in college was on display in the preseason, just without the ball in his hands. Chase has the pedigree of a top Fantasy receiver, but the narrative about how bad he's looked has sunk his ADP. Take advantage -- and if people make fun of you for taking Chase, you can remind them that in 2019, he had 121 targets and dropped five of them. 

Jamey: Courtland Sutton made his return to the field in Denver's third preseason game against the Rams after missing last season with a torn ACL. He looked good and finished with two catches for 27 yards and a touchdown on three targets. Hopefully he's healthy all year, and he should form a top tandem with Jeudy. And Sutton could easily be the Broncos' best receiver this season. The hope is Teddy Bridgewater can support all of these guys, including Noah Fant as well, but I love Sutton's price in Round 7 given his upside.

Chris: Michael Thomas (87.4). Let's just keep chasing upside, and few wide receivers have more than Thomas. I had him as a top-five WR before his injury, and with Jameis Winston confirmed as the Saints starter, I still think he has that kind of upside. Obviously, the injury injects a ton of risk -- we saw his ankle issues derail his 2020 season -- but when you can get last year's consensus No. 1 WR at 31 now, there's no reason to look for reasons not to. Figure you can fill in for him until he's healthy, and if he hits, you've got a first-round caliber player.

Heath: Ja'Marr Chase's slide down draft boards may not be complete, he may fall into Round 8 in some drafts, and I'll still be taking him. Four preseason drops shouldn't change your mind about him. Neither should reports that his snaps might be limited early in the season. The same thing happened to Justin Jefferson and A.J. Brown early in their rookie seasons. Chase has league-winning upside in the second half even if he gets off to a slow start. Bet on the guy who produced 1,780 yards and 20 TDs as a 19-year-old in the SEC.

So which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade? And which QB shocks the NFL with a top-five performance? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that called Josh Allen's huge season, and find out.