Fantasy Football Rookie Report Card: Ranking the running backs for 2020 and beyond
Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders led a rookie running back class that fell well short of the sensational standard set by the Saquon Barkley Class of 2018.
By
Chris Towers
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1 min read
Compared to the one that came before it, the 2019 rookie class of running backs looked a lot more like what we're used to seeing. Whereas three running backs went in the first round in 2018 and a whopping seven were taken in the first two rounds overall, only two backs went in the first two rounds in 2019.
And the production we saw mirrored that draft capital: One back ran for 1,000-plus yards in 2019; two did it in 2018. The 2018 class also had four running backs rush for at least 900 yards, while only Josh Jacobs managed it in 2019, and David Montgomery ended up just short.
We also don't have any Saquon Barkleys from 2019's class, though there could be three players from this year's class taken in the top-15 at the position next season, so it's not like we're lacking in options for 2020 or beyond. Here we're ranking the 2019 rookie class at the end of their first seasons, with an eye on 2020 and beyond, focusing on the early-round picks plus those players who were at least relevant enough to matter, during draft season or once the games actually mattered:
Jacobs was the best rookie running back, finishing 11th in PPR scoring per game despite a relatively limited role in the passing game. The biggest, and probably only, question about Jacobs this offseason is whether the Raiders will trust him to be an every down back, because he managed to finish as a top-12 back despite playing more than 65% of the snaps in just two of 13 games. Both Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington are free agents this offseason, and if they opt to let one or both walk, Jacobs could be in line for the kind of role he'll need to make the leap into the elite tier. He feels safe as a top-12 running back, but he'll need his passing work to at least double to make the jump. The potential is certainly there.
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He's arguably the top rookie running back for 2020. Sanders wasn't someone you could rely on for the whole season, but when he got his chance, he made the most of it. With Jordan Howard sidelined from Weeks 11 through 16 with a shoulder injury, here was Sanders' 16-game pace: 1,147 rushing yards, 67 catches, 547 receiving yards, and 10 total touchdowns. Now, there's no guarantee Sanders will see 70% or more of the running back snaps next season like he did in that stretch, but no back from this class showed the same kind of all-around ability, especially when you factor in Sanders' downfield role as a receiver. You can argue Sanders should be a top-12 running back next season if the Eagles don't bring Howard back.
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Singletary had a very similar profile as David Montgomery coming into the season, and was available at a relatively steep discount, which made him arguably the best value at the position among the rookies. A hamstring injury meant Singletary didn't see double-digit touches until Week 9, but he was the clear go-to guy from that point on, with 603 rushing yards and 136 receiving yards over his final eight games, while routinely seeing every-down snaps. The biggest hole in his game came at the goal-line, as Singletary scored just two rushing touchdowns all season — and he didn't have a Green Zone (inside the 10-yard line) touch from Week 9. Josh Allen is always going to take a high percentage of goal-line work ala Cam Newton at his peak — Allen had 11 green-zone rushes for just four for Singletary — but if that trend continues, it could lead to Singletary having a lower ceiling than you would think for Fantasy. Add in inefficient work in the passing game, and Singletary looks more like a solid No. 2 than a high-upside RB for next year.
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After the first game (and with one notable exception), Montgomery never had trouble finding touches. He carried the ball least 13 times in 13 of 16 games, and added multiple catches in seven games, finishing 14th in carries among running backs and finishing with a healthy 267 touches overall. Of course, all that makes Montgomery's No. 22 finish in PPR scoring look even worse. Among all running backs who had at least 100 carries, Montgomery finished 39th out of 45 in Fantasy points per touch, just ahead of the massively disappointing Sony Michel. You have to assume some regression for Montgomery in Year 2 in what will hopefully be a better Bears offense, and the fact that he was often used as a downfield threat as a receiver builds some unexpected upside into his profile. However, there isn't much positive to take from his rookie season.
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And now we get to the realm of the backups, and Pollard certainly looks like the most interesting of the bunch after Year 1. He's in a perfect situation to be a Fantasy star if anything ever happens to Ezekiel Elliott, and he flashed plenty of upside as a rookie, leading the league in yards per carry after contact and forcing 25 missed tackles on just 86 touches. Pollard will need an Elliott injury to have any Fantasy appeal for years, but he'll be a highly valued handcuff when it comes time to draft next summer.
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Mattison missed his chance to show what he could do with a significant role, missing the final three games of the season with an ankle injury, including two with Dalvin Cook sidelined by a chest injury. When Mattison was on the field he looked pretty good, actually averaging slightly more yards per carry after contact than Cook, albeit on a much smaller sample. He never saw much usage as a receiver or near the goal line, though there's no reason to think he couldn't manage either if given the chance.
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The assumption has to be that James Conner will enter 2020 as the Steelers starting running back, but it will be fascinating to watch where Snell gets drafted over the offseason. There's a chance he ends up the primary rusher for the Steelers next season, but that's probably not a question we'll have an answer for until July or even August — meaning he could be a huge value in Best Ball or Dynasty leagues that draft early. On the other hand, Snell's lack of pass-catching ability could leave him in a permanent backup role behind Conner. Either way, he had a decent rookie season, but a limited skill set leaves him without a ton of upside in an offense with a lot of question marks heading into 2020.
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Hill is an electrifying prospect from a physical perspective, which makes the lack of explosiveness in his actual game as a rookie somewhat disappointing. He didn't get many opportunities as the Ravens' No. 3 back but had a long run of just 18 yards and a long reception of 14. The Ravens did give him a few opportunities to make plays on passes down the field, but ultimately, he just didn't get enough opportunities behind Mark Ingram and Gus Edwards to show what he can do. We'll need to see at least one of Ingram or Edwards out of the picture to make Hill worth using a draft pick on next season.
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Henderson probably should get an incomplete grade, except for the fact that he was actually being drafted as a borderline starter at times last summer, when we didn't quite know what Todd Gurley's availability would be. Gurley largely stayed healthy, and Henderson ultimately wound up behind Malcolm Brown, and didn't even see much usage as a receiver for the Rams, who threw the ball to their running backs less often than any team in the league this season. Henderson played just 12 snaps on offense from Week 11 on, and can't be drafted next season unless the Rams move on from Brown, at the very least.
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It was curious that the Patriots invested a third-round pick in a running back when they did it, and it looks even more hard to make sense of now. Sony Michel averaged 3.7 yards per carry and generally looked sluggish, but Harris couldn't get on the field at all outside of one appearance in Week 7. With Tom Brady looking like he's on his last legs, this doesn't even look like a particularly valuable spot for a running back to be in. Harris is still a Dynasty stash in case he gets the opportunity next season, but he's still behind a back with more pedigree, and isn't worth a look in 2020 drafts at this point.
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There was ample opportunity for Thompson this season, with Damien Williams missing significant time due to injury, LeSean McCoy never quite earning the coaching staff's trust and Darrel Williams going down with a season-ending injury late in Week 13. The fact that he never got more than 35% of the team's offensive snaps in any game probably tells you everything you need to know about Thompson's chances of being the starter in Kansas City in the long term. That shouldn't come as much of a surprise, as he was just a sixth-round pick, but Thompson was a popular sleeper pick in drafts last summer. Don't be surprised if the Chiefs look for their running back of the future in the early-to-middle rounds this year and expect that back to be one of the most sought after from this class.
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