Fantasy Football Week 16 Lineup Decisions: Your guide to the toughest starts, sits and flexes
Dig into the players who might be tough start/sit calls in your lineup based on game film notes, stats, more
By
Dave Richard
•
17 min read
Fantasy Football is all about the matchups. Even though you drafted your team with certain hopes and intentions, your weekly lineup decisions shouldn't be determined by the order you picked your players in. You need to check who your players play and make sure you've got the right guys in -- and the wrong guys out.
We can take some educated guesses based on coaches film, meaningful data, healthy personnel, defensive schemes, track records, and key details of offenses. The things we know can help us minimize the impact of the things we don't know. This should lead to better decisions being made.
We'll go through every game and highlight the players who aren't obvious starts and sits (because you don't need to be told to start Brock Bowers). You should feel more comfortable starting or sitting players based on the information given, and feeling comfortable with your Fantasy lineup before the games start is the best feeling in the world.
All lines from Caesars Sportsbook.
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
It will sting not having Davante Adams available, but the Rams should be able to get by without having to completely overload Puka Nacua nor lean too heavily on the ground game. Expect tight end Colby Parkinson to take on a bigger role, especially in the red zone, where he's already been crushing. His route rate started moving up in Week 10, and since then, he's averaged a 14.7% target share, which isn't great, but his overall red zone target share has been a huge 37.8%. He's run the second-most red-zone routes behind Adams, which suggests Parkinson will for sure be a fixture near the end zone like he has been in his past two (three total touchdowns) and past six (six total touchdowns). In 14 games, 11 tight ends have notched at least 10.1 PPR points against Seattle, including three with 11.1 or more in its past four games. Parkinson even scored on the Seahawks in Week 11, but had just two targets in the game. He should see more. There have been a number of psych-out tight ends who have hurt Fantasy managers, but unless you have a more reliable option, then Parkinson is worth taking the chance on.
Another week, another weak game for Kenneth Walker III. In a more competitive-than-expected matchup, Walker played just 42% of the snaps versus the Colts, had one more carry than Zach Charbonnet (9 to 8), somehow had one more catch than Charbonnet (the only catch by a Seattle running back in the game), and averaged less than 3.0 yards per rush for the second game in a row. This Thursday's showdown could easily be competitive, but it could also be a runaway Rams win, and in either game script, I wouldn't feel good about Walker getting a lot of touches. The matchup is also really tough: L.A. has yielded 3.8 yards per carry, one rushing touchdown, and a minuscule 3.6% explosive rush rate over its past four games, excluding garbage time. And the added wrinkle of the Seahawks potentially playing without starting tackle Charles Cross against an aggressive Rams pass rush might take Walker off the field a little more since he's struggled in pass protection for much of this year and his career. I'd rather start Charbonnet because I think he'll play more and continue to see more high-value touches, but both backs are big-time risks.
MUST-STARTS: Matthew Stafford (top-10 QB, but not top-5), Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
STARTS: Kyren Williams (No. 2 RB), Colby Parkinson (top-12 TE), Seahawks DST (low-end DST)
FLEX: Zach Charbonnet, Kenneth Walker III (non-PPR)
SITS: Sam Darnold, Blake Corum (desperation RB), A.J. Barner (desperation PPR TE), Rashid Shaheed, Cooper Kupp, Tutu Atwell, Xavier Smith, Rams DST
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The Eagles kicked butt on both sides of the football last week against an inept Raiders squad. The Commanders are a nudge up in competition but still a unit void of defensive difference-makers, especially at this stage of the season. Washington's run defense is especially vulnerable, allowing 4.6 yards per rush and five rushing touchdowns (at least one per game) in its past four, excluding garbage time stats. And the Commanders were trounced by Saquon Barkley three times last season for at least 27 PPR points in each game. If the Eagles have another strong run game, then there's probably going to be more lean opportunities for their receivers. Additionally, tight end Dallas Goedert's newfound involvement in the offense (17 targets for a 14-148-2 stat line) in his past two games will also put a lid on DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown's upside, even against a defense that shouldn't get a lot of pressure on Jalen Hurts unless his offensive line is down two more starters, which is possible.
I wouldn't get too excited over Jacory Croskey-Merritt's Week 15. Running against the Giants was a good thing; running against the Eagles is a bad thing. Washington's running backs struggled for the most part in each of the three matchups against Philly last year: Austin Ekeler's 17.6 PPR game in Week 11 was helped by eight catches, Brian Robinson scored in a 14.2 PPR effort in the same game, and no other Eagles runner scored or even totaled 45 yards in any other game. Philly's run defense isn't even at full strength with Jalen Carter out, but it's still dominant enough to contain the Commanders RBs, which figures to include Chris Rodriguez Jr., who didn't play in the team's game last week. Expect a three-headed approach, which limits the upside of any rusher in a tough matchup, and if they're without left tackle Laremy Tunsil, then the matchup is even more unbearable. Marcus Mariota might lead Washington in rush yards.
MUST-STARTS: Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown
STARTS: Jalen Hurts, Terry McLaurin, Dallas Goedert, Eagles DST
FLEX: DeVonta Smith, Deebo Samuel
SITS: Marcus Mariota, Chris Rodriguez Jr., Jacory Croskey-Merritt, Jeremy McNichols, Tank Bigsby, Commanders DST
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Though he had a season-worst 65.7% catchable throw rate against the Packers in Week 14, there are many reasons for optimism for Caleb Williams in the return bout. The biggest? No Micah Parsons for the Packers, which means a good-but-not-as-good pass rush will be coming after Williams. That's an upgrade that a quarterback who's struggled with pass rush pressure all season really needs. Also not expected to play is Packers safety Evan Williams, a solid run defender and decent pass defender. Both of those absences should compel the Packers to play more zone coverage just as they have been in their past four matchups, and Williams' efficiency and accuracy have been much better against that coverage this season compared to man-to-man. He's not a top-12 quarterback in my rankings, but he's still in the conversation as a usable starter, though that outlook would be better if he had both Rome Odunze and Luther Burden to throw to.
The case to start D.J. Moore is easy as long as Rome Odunze and Luther Burden are sidelined: He'll be the Bears' No. 1 receiver, plus he's more efficient on a deeper average depth of target against zone coverage this year. Here's another reason: Moore has six red-zone targets in his past four games and got three end-zone targets last week. Both lead the team. The next-closest Bears player in both categories? Olamide Zaccheaus and Colston Loveland are tied with three red-zone targets in those past four, while Zaccheaus is tied with Cole Kmet with two end-zone targets. Loveland's route rate remains underwhelming as he's participated on more than 70% of the pass plays in just three games all year, a factor that's kept him from being a seven-target tight end instead of what he has been, which is roughly a five-target tight end. Even if Burden plays on Saturday, Moore is usable as at worst a high-end No. 3 receiver or flex. Loveland is a startable tight end, but all three of his games with 11-plus PPR points have involved at least one touchdown. Maybe it's good news then that he's literally the only tight end to score on the Packers since Week 8, but if he doesn't do it again, he'll leave your lineup a little light.
MUST STARTS: Josh Jacobs
STARTS: D'Andre Swift, DJ Moore, Colston Loveland (low-end TE)
SITS: Caleb Williams (high-end No. 2 QB), Jordan Love, Kyle Monangai (desperation RB), Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Olamide Zaccheaus, Luke Musgrave, Cole Kmet, Bears DST, Packers DST
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
The Panthers run defense has bottomed out over its past four games, excluding garbage time, giving up 4.9 yards per rush, an 11% explosive rush rate, and seven rushing TDs to RBs (five inside the five). This should be huge for Bucky Irving (19, 17, and 17 touches in each game since returning from injury), but what if it's too good and leaves little for Baker Mayfield to do? Not only is that possible, but the Panthers have reliably played zone coverage (Cover-3 is their favorite) not just over the past month but much of the year, and also did in both games against Tampa Bay last season. Mayfield has been merely solid and not spectacular against zone coverage and Cover-3 this year, and that's what he figures to see a lot of this week. It's not a complicated matchup for Mayfield, but it could be one that keeps his numbers solid (250-2-0?).
I'd expect the Buccaneers defense to play with a lot more intensity this week after their coach cursed out the team to the media after last week's embarrassing loss. Getting safety Tykee Smith and linebacker SirVocea Dennis back would also go a long way toward corralling the Panthers backs. I also didn't like how the Panthers offensive line appeared to wear down last week against the Saints; they have a more physically imposing matchup this week. Both Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard make me nervous, but they'll participate in the passing game, which is where I suspect Carolina's offense will have to focus. In five games when Bryce Young has passed at least 30 times, Tetairoa McMillan has seen at least eight targets every time and 13.3 PPR points three times. Jalen Coker seems to be emerging as a savvy second receiver for the Panthers and could see north of five targets in such a game script. Both are in play as at least flex options. Young has two games with 20-plus Fantasy points in these five higher-for-him volume outings; I'm not sure this will be a third.
MUST-STARTS: Bucky Irving
STARTS: Baker Mayfield (borderline No. 1/2 QB), Mike Evans, Rico Dowdle, Tetairoa McMillan (low-end No. 2 WR)
FLEX: Emeka Egbuka, Jalen Coker, and Chris Godwin (low-end PPR flexes)
SITS: Bryce Young, Jalen McMillan, Chuba Hubbard, Rachaad White, Sean Tucker, Buccaneers DST
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
As mentioned in this space before, Khalil Shakir's route participation rate in blowout wins has never been higher than 71.4% and has been as low as 51.9%. It doesn't guarantee Fantasy failure, but three of his five single-digit PPR point games did come in Bills blowout wins. What does concern me is the matchup against a Browns defense that plays a lot of man-to-man coverage and does get after the quarterback. Shakir's target per route run rate dips from a second-best 22.7% overall to a <i>fourth-best</i> 19.5% against man coverage. Shakir also averages 9.2 yards per catch against man compared to 11.4 versus zone, and it gets even lower (7.9) against Cover-1 schemes like the Browns prefer to play. Shakir has 11.5 PPR points or fewer in three straight, including a matchup versus the Bengals when he scored! I'd expect big numbers for James Cook and Josh Allen, but not Shakir.
No defense has allowed fewer Fantasy points per game than the Bills this season. Harold Fannin Jr. isn't your typical tight end -- he lines up wide and in the slot around 40% of his snaps -- and he's had at least six targets and at least 11.3 PPR points in 3 of 4 of Shedeur Sanders' starts. Only three tight ends all season have seen a minimum of five targets against the Bills: Travis Kelce, Cade Otton, and Mike Gesicki. All three played across the formation like Fannin. Two of them -- Kelce and Gesicki -- had at least 12.5 PPR points. Gesicki actually had 20.6 PPR points because he scored, one of two tight ends to do so against Buffalo this year. It's obviously a yucky matchup for Fannin, but his role as a short and intermediate target in the Browns offense is locked in. He should still see his targets and serve as at least a decent PPR tight end. It's those half- and non-PPR leagues I'd be nervous about.
MUST STARTS: Josh Allen, James Cook
STARTS: Dalton Kincaid, Quinshon Judkins (borderline No. 2/3 RB), Harold Fannin (low-end TE, especially in non-PPR), Bills DST
SITS: Shedeur Sanders, Khalil Shakir (desperation WR), Jerry Jeudy, Keon Coleman, Dawson Knox, Isaiah Bond, Ty Johnson, Ray Davis, Trayveon Williams, Browns DST
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Six of the past seven Chargers' opponents have scored 20 or fewer points, with only the Jaguars pouring it on in a blowout. Eleven of the past 13 QBs against the Chargers have recorded 19.1 or fewer Fantasy points in six-point pass TD formats (and just four of the 13 totaled two touchdowns). This is happening because the Chargers pass rush has begun kicking into high gear even without a heavy amount of blitzing, and the secondary continues to push along. The challenge for Dak Prescott is to manage that pass rush. When Prescott's pressured, the Cowboys, whose target per route run rates dip, are George Pickens (17.1%) and Jake Ferguson (16.6%). That was especially the case last week when the Vikings got in Prescott's kitchen a ton and both Pickens and Ferguson came up small. In the (almost) four games since left tackle Tyler Guyton's injury, Prescott has been above 20.4 Fantasy points once (versus the Chiefs). He's not a lock to play this week, nor is his backup tackle, Nate Thomas. If the Cowboys have any weakness on that O-line, it could mean another bad game for Prescott against a defense that's delivered a lot of them.
MUST STARTS: CeeDee Lamb
STARTS: Dak Prescott (borderline No. 1/2 QB), Javonte Williams, George Pickens, Ladd McConkey (low-end No. 2 WR), Chargers DST (low-end DST)
FLEX: Omarion Hampton
SITS: Justin Herbert, Jake Ferguson (high-end No. 2 TE), Kimani Vidal (desperation RB), Oronde Gadsden II (desperation TE), Keenan Allen, Ryan Flournoy, Malik Davis, Cowboys DST
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
My study of Quinn Ewers before the NFL Draft revealed a quick-release thrower who could read coverages but had arm strength and accuracy issues when he threw beyond 10 air yards. Ewers also was inconsistent in dealing with pressure and seemed to have an over-reliance on screens, quick outs, flares, and check-down passes. This is all well and good for De'Von Achane, but it does create some concern for Jaylen Waddle and Darren Waller's efficiency. Waddle is especially a major concern: All 26 of his career touchdowns have come from Tua Tagovailoa, he has one career game with more than 85 receiving yards and four with more than 50 yards without Tagovailoa on the field, and he has just five games with five or more catches from a passer not named Tagovailoa. Waddle's outlook is further muddied since he figures to see a lot of cornerback D.J. Turner in coverage, and he's done a nice job this season limiting big plays. Maybe Waddle -- and Waller -- can cash in come garbage time.
MUST-STARTS: Ja'Marr Chase, De'Von Achane, Chase Brown
STARTS: Joe Burrow, Darren Waller (borderline No. 1/2 TE)
FLEX: Jaylen Waddle
SITS: Quinn Ewers, Mike Gesicki (desperation TE if Tee Higgins is out), Malik Washington, Andrei Iosivas, Mitchell Tinsley, Samaje Perine, Jaylen Wright, Greg Dulcich, Dolphins DST, Bengals DST
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
STARTS: Chris Olave, Breece Hall, Saints DST
FLEX: Adonai Mitchell
SITS: Tyler Shough (desperation QB), Brady Cook, Juwan Johnson (desperation TE), Audric Estime, Taysom Hill, Evan Hull, John Metchie III, Isaiah Williams, Kevin Austin, Mason Tipton, Jets DST
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
STARTS: Jaxson Dart, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Aaron Jones, Wan'Dale Robinson, Justin Jefferson, Theo Johnson (borderline No. 1/No. 2 TE)
FLEX: Jordan Addison (low-end PPR flex)
SITS: J.J. McCarthy, T.J. Hockenson, Darius Slayton, Devin Singletary, Jordan Mason, Vikings DST, Giants DST
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
STARTS: Travis Kelce, Chiefs DST
FLEX: Tony Pollard
SITS: Gardner Minshew, Cam Ward, Kareem Hunt (desperation RB), Xavier Worthy, Marquise Brown, Tyjae Spears, Chimere Dike, Chig Okonkwo, Elic Ayomanor, Gunnar Helm, Isiah Pacheco, Titans DST
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
MUST-STARTS: Bijan Robinson, Trey McBride
STARTS: Jacoby Brissett (top-5 QB), Michael Wilson (if Marvin Harrison Jr. is out), Kyle Pitts (would be less exciting if Drake London plays, but would still be a start)
FLEX: Michael Carter, Tyler Allgeier (non-PPR flex)
SITS: Kirk Cousins, Darnell Mooney, Emari Demercado, Falcons DST, Cardinals DST
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
Jacksonville's been rolling, and Trevor Lawrence has played better as his receiving corps has gotten healthier, but this is a real big test. The Broncos brought their mojo back last week with a more aggressive pass rush. Lawrence's efficiency has gone out the window when pressured this year, including a 6.9 yards per attempt average, a 3% TD rate and a 3% INT rate, a low 80.5% catchable pass rate, and a paltry 69.8 QB rating when the heat's been on him. In fact, in four games in 2025 when Lawrence has been pressured on at least 40% of his dropbacks, he's completed multiple touchdown passes once, totaled multiple touchdowns twice, scored 20-plus Fantasy points (six points per pass TD) twice,e and been below 20 points twice. None of that is great, and neither is this: Only one quarterback has gone into Denver and left with more than sixteen Fantasy points (Jaxson Dart had a monster game in Week 7). This is a tough spot for Lawrence, who has shined over the last month in matchups against the Cardinals, Titans, Colts, and Jets. The Broncos are a massive step up. Lawrence's floor is boosted by what he can do running the ball, something that figures to come into play this week and has helped other QBs against Denver, but it's a major risk to trust him in what's been a really tough matchup all year.
Green Bay entered Week 15 with a dynamite pass rush and a track record of playing heavy zone coverage. Bo Nix crushed it, specifically getting 267 of his 302 yards and all four of his touchdowns against the Packers' zone coverage. While Jacksonville's pass rush is pretty good (16 sacks in its past five games), its pass defense is nowhere near as good as Green Bay's. In fact, their numbers have been propped up by the inferior passers and weak offensive lines they've dealt with. This should make for a fairly easy matchup for Nix to keep grinding, particularly against a defense that won't delve too deeply into anything different than what he saw last week. Here's another interesting point: Save for the Raiders game, the Broncos haven't been able to run the ball really efficiently. It could put more on Nix's plate, and although Nix has had a lot on his plate for much of the last month and still came up short, last week could have been the breakthrough.
STARTS: Bo Nix, Travis Etienne, R.J. Harvey (No. 2 RB), Courtland Sutton, Jakobi Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr. (low-end No. 2 WRs), Broncos DST
SITS: Trevor Lawrence, Pat Bryant and Troy Franklin (desperation WRs), Parker Washington, Marvin Mims, Brenton Strange, Evan Engram (revenge game?!), LeQuint Allen, Jaleel McLaughlin, Tyler Badie, Jaguars DST (desperation DST, save them for Week 17)
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
MUST-STARTS: Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown
STARTS: Jared Goff, Jameson Williams, DK Metcalf, Kenneth Gainwell (PPR; flex in half- or non-PPR)
FLEX: David Montgomery (non-PPR)
SITS: Aaron Rodgers, Isaac TeSlaa, Jaylen Warren, Adam Thielen, Darnell Washington, Pat Freiermuth, Jonnu Smith, Ross Dwelley, Lions DST, Steelers DST
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
MUST-STARTS: Nico Collins, Texans DST (must-start rest of season)
STARTS: Woody Marks, Brock Bowers, Dalton Schultz (low-end No. 1 TE)
FLEX: Ashton Jeanty
SITS: C.J. Stroud (high-end No. 2 QB), Geno Smith, Tre Tucker, Jayden Higgins, Christian Kirk, Jawhar Jordan, Dare Ogunbowale, Raiders DST
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
I didn't think Lamar Jackson had a good game last week, especially compared to the two prior, and yet he was two ugly drops by Zay Flowers away from being over 25 Fantasy points. Jackson seemed panicky in the first half and then maybe too chill in the second half. There were some accuracy issues as well as some strange decision-making issues on a few occasions. There's a chance the Ravens simply run their way to another victory: The Patriots have let up 4.8 yards per rush, three rushing touchdowns (two last week), and a 5.9% explosive rush rate over their past four games, excluding garbage time. It's the perfect spot for the Ravens to stick with their newfound thunder-and-lightning combo of Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell, with Jackson utilizing some play-action and RPOs off of it. Tack on a Patriots pass rush that's struggled to wrangle quarterbacks all year, and it sets up for a decent spot, though wide receivers and tight ends not named Dawson Knox have come up small against the Pats in their past four. All of this might impact your expectations for Zay Flowers, even though he had a nice game last week.
STARTS: Drake Maye, Lamar Jackson, TreVeyon Henderson, Derrick Henry, Patriots DST (low-end option, save them for Week 17)
FLEX: Zay Flowers (high-end flex), Stefon Diggs, Rhamondre Stevenson (non-PPR flex)
SITS: Hunter Henry, Mark Andrews (TD-dependent TE), Keaton Mitchell (desperation non-PPR RB), Kayshon Boutte, Mack Hollins, Rashod Bateman, Isaiah Likely, DeAndre Hopkins, Rasheen Ali, Ravens DST
Start 'em
10.0-7.00
6.99 - 5.01
5.00 - 0
Sit 'em
MUST-STARTS: Christian McCaffrey, George Kittle, Jonathan Taylor
STARTS: Brock Purdy, Jauan Jennings, 49ers DST
FLEX: Michael Pittman (PPR flex)
SITS: Philip Rivers, Tyler Warren (desperation TE), Alec Pierce (desperation WR), Josh Downs, Ameer Abdullah, Demarcus Robinson, Brian Robinson Jr., Colts DST
