Fantasy Football Week 6 Wide Receiver Preview: Hold Adam Thielen and start him every week
Everything you need to know about the wide receiver position for Week 6
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2 min read
When an older player exceeds expectations like Adam Thielen has, it is understandable that we hear calls to sell high. Considering how throughly Thielen has smashed his perceived ceiling through five weeks, it is no surprise if those calls are a bit louder, and close to unanimous.
Thielen is currently WR10 in full PPR scoring and he started the year with two catches for 12 yards against the Falcons. Since that face plant, he has 36 catches for 382 yards and three touchdowns in four games. His 82.6% catch rate is a career-high, his 8.6 yards per target is his best mark since 2020, and his 78.8 yards per game is his best mark since 2018. All this at 33 years old.
There lies the problem. Thielen is 33 years old so, as we discussed on Sunday night's Fantasy Football Today, nobody is going to give you WR1 value despite however legitimate it may seem. People are expecting not just a normal level of regression to the mean, but a regression to Thielen's mean for the past two seasons.
I project Thielen around WR22 rest of season, which means I'm not dealing him unless I can get high-end WR2 value and you shouldn't either. Just enjoy the found money, even if he's your flex.
Last week, my projections had both Cooper Kupp and D.J. Moore as WR1 plays and DFS must adds. If you want more projection-based plays, you can find my projections for every Fantasy-relevant player on Sportsline.
Here is the rest of the Week 6 WR Preview:
Week 6 WR Preview
WR Preview
Who's Out
The following players are not being projected to play Week 6 at this time. Here's what it means:
K.J. Osborn and Jordan Addison will be the top two wide receivers for Kirk Cousins.
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Robert Woods is a No. 3 wide receiver if Tank Dell is out.
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You should start both Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk.
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WR Preview
Numbers to Know
- 67.7% -- Two-thirds of Matthew Stafford's pass attempts went to Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua.
- 15.6 -- D.J. Moore is averaging 15.6 yards per target. That would be a record. He's a must-start receiver but there is certainly regression coming.
- 4.75 -- Tyreek Hill is averaging 4.75 yards per route run. Brandon Aiyuk is the only other receiver above 3.3. They'll regress some too, but the normal rules of efficiency don't totally apply to Shanahan or McDaniels' offenses.
- 16.7% -- Rashee Rice leads all WRs with a 16.7% drop rate. Kadarius Toney is second at 15.8%.
- 8.5 -- Nico Collins is tied with Moore at 8.5 YAC per reception, which leads all receivers. That's all the more impressive because both have an ADOT over 11.
- 9 -- Jordan Addison saw a career-high nine targets in Week 5, with Justin Jefferson leaving early. Addison could average 10 targets per game until Jefferson gets back.
- 86% -- Jerry Jeudy played a season-high 86% of the snaps in Week 5. He may be the team's WR1 again.
WR Preview
Matchups that matter
Matchups that matter
Projections powered by
Sportsline
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WR Preview
Waiver Wire Targets
Week 6 Adds (WR Preview)
Downs could be a legitimate WR3 on a weekly basis with Gardner Minshew leading the offense. He has a 24% target share with Minshew under center and he's caught 70% of those targets. He's a better option in full PPR than half.
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I can't say that I like how much Samuel is involved, but we can't ignore his role. He ranks second on the team in receptions and receiving yards and has a rushing touchdown to boot. He's a fine flex this week against Atlanta.
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Stashes (WR Preview)
It's Week 6 and the consensus best wide receiver in the draft is coming off of his bye week. If you're going to stash any healthy wide receiver, this should be your first look. Smith-Njigba's usage has been borderline hilarious early in the year but he's talented and they didn't draft him to do this. A positive role change could put him on the path to Fantasy production. I still believe he could be the best Seahawks wide receiver late in the season.
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Like JSN, Johnston is a Round 1 rookie coming off a bye. He doesn't have the upside Smith-Njigba does, but he does have a much clearer path to targets after Mike Williams' season-ending injury. He also has an island game against the Cowboys this week. This may be your last chance to add him cheap.
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WR Preview
DFS Plays
Top DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
Normally you might be worried about game script and Hill sitting out the fourth quarter. He might, but he'll do a lot of damage before we get to that point. Hill has one game this season with fewer than 15 Fantasy points and he's topped 30 three times already. Start with him when building your cash lineups.
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Contrarian DFS Play
Projections powered by
Sportsline
I think more people will expect Jimmy Garoppolo to go back to Davante Adams after a quiet Week 5, but this is the rare double revenge game and Myers' departure is fresh. he's shown big-time upside when teams attempt to take away Adams and that's exactly what a typical Belichick defense would do.
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WR Preview
Heath's Projections
My full set of Week 6 Fantasy Football projections for every position are now available on SportsLine. Find out which of my favorite plays are projected to score higher than consensus rankings and which don't live up to their draft hype, at least in Week 6. Projected stats for all starting running backs are available, so be sure to check out the full set of projections over at SportsLine.
