2018 Honda Classic odds: Picks from same model that nailed Alex Noren's deep run

The PGA Tour is heading to Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, on Thursday for the 2018 Honda Classic. Defending champion Rickie Fowler is the Vegas favorite at 9/1, followed closely by Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy at 10/1. Fowler opened at 8/1 before moving down the odds board slightly.

Before you make any bets or enter a daily fantasy golf tournament on DraftKings or FanDuel, you'll want to hear what the team at SportsLine has to say.

SportsLine's prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, was all over Alex Noren at the Farmers Insurance Open last month. Despite being a 60/1 long shot, the model projected him to be a top contender. The result: Noren shot 70 or better in three of his four rounds and finished tied for second after a playoff. Anybody who used their model had plenty of great value selections to choose from.

Now that the field for the Honda Classic 2018 is locked, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One huge surprise the model is calling for at the Honda Classic this year: Kevin Kisner, a 50/1 long shot, makes a serious run at the title. He's a target for anybody looking for a huge payday.

Kisner is coming off a disappointing performance at the Genesis Open that saw him miss the cut for the first time this year. However, he has been hot this season with a top-five finish at the RSM Classic and a pair of top-12 finishes at the Hero World Challenge and QBE Shootout -- both unofficial PGA Tour events.

Kisner is No. 31 in the Official World Golf Rankings and in the top 10 on the PGA Tour in two critical stats: driving accuracy (sixth, 72.12 percent) and birdie average (eighth, 4.58). He's also in the top 20 in greens in regulation percentage at 72.51 and will have the ability to move up the Honda Classic leaderboard in a hurry.

Another curveball: Adam Scott, the 2016 Honda Classic champion, doesn't sniff the top 15.

Scott is No. 58 in the Official World Golf Rankings and sits outside the top 100 on tour in scoring average (140th, 71.761), driving accuracy percentage (141st, 56.94), and sand save percentage (199th, 33.33).

Scott finished 53rd in last week's Genesis Open and was cut at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. He's somebody to completely steer clear of this week.

Also, three additional players with odds longer than 25/1 are positioning themselves to make a serious run at the title. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins the 2018 Honda Classic? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the updated odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the full projected leaderboard from the model that predicted Alex Noren's deep run at the Farmers Insurance Open, and find out.

Rickie Fowler 9/1
Justin Thomas 10/1
Rory McIlroy 10/1
Sergio Garcia 15/1
Tyrrell Hatton 25/1
Gary Woodland 25/1
Tommy Fleetwood 25/1
Alex Noren 30/1
Brian Harman 30/1
Daniel Berger 40/1   
Patrick Reed 40/1
Russell Knox 40/1
Brandt Snedeker 40/1   
Adam Scott 50/1  
Kevin Kisner 50/1
Chesson Hadley 50/1
Jason Dufner 50/1
Webb Simpson 50/1
Rafael Cabrera Bello 50/1
Ollie Schniederjans 50/1
Russell Henley 50/1

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