2010 MLB Redraft: Bryce Harper, Manny Machado still top-three picks, but neither goes No. 1
With the benefit of hindsight, it's time go back and redraft the 2010 first round a decade later
By
Mike Axisa
•
23 min read
If only Major League Baseball teams could draft with the benefit of hindsight. Can't-miss prospects miss all the time, and players no one really expected to amount to much can go on to win major awards. Because baseball requires so much repetition and refinement, its draft is more unpredictable than other major sports. Teams do their best, but there's a lot of luck involved.
It has been 10 years since what is shaping up to be a historic 2010 draft. The 2010 draft has produced two MVPs and two Cy Young awards, dozens of All-Star Game selections, and no fewer than five players who are in position to receive serious Hall of Fame consideration down the road. If that sounds amazing, consider what ESPN's Keith Law wrote prior to the draft:
"(The) quality of talent this year is below where it was the last two years, and is well below what we can already see for the 2011 draft."
Like I said, unpredictable. The 2010 draft produced all that top-end talent even though the best intel at the time told us it had a good crop of players but not a great one, especially when compared to the previous two years and the upcoming year. The 2008 and 2009 classes were very good and the 2011 draft class is shaping up to be one of the best ever.
Because we can, we're going to step into our time machine and go back to the 2010 draft, and redraft the first round using what we know today. The redraft is based mostly on what the player has done to date -- production during the player's team control years is of paramount importance here -- but we'll also consider what the player is still expected to do going forward.
It should be noted the 2010 draft was held under the old free agent compensation rules. Back then, when a team lost a Type-A free agent, they received the signing team's highest draft pick in return, plus a supplemental first rounder. Sign a big free agent and you had to send your top selection to his former club. That is no longer the case. The compensation rules are much more relaxed now.
As a result of the free agent compensation rules at the time, three teams did not have a first round pick in 2010: Braves, Mariners, and Tigers. Another team, the Red Sox, gave up its first rounder to sign a free agent but gained a first rounder for losing a free agent, so they still had a first-round pick. Here are the free agent compensation machinations:
- Mariners: Sent 18th pick to Angels as compensation for signing Chone Figgins.
- Tigers: Sent 19th pick to Astros as compensation for signing Jose Valverde.
- Braves: Sent 20th pick to Red Sox as compensation for signing Billy Wagner.
- Red Sox: Sent 29th pick to Angels as compensation for signing John Lackey.
Also, the Rangers and Rays had extra picks in 2010 because they failed to sign their 2009 first rounder. Texas received the 15th pick in 2010 as compensation for failing to sign 14th pick Matt Purke in 2009. Tampa Bay did not sign LeVon Washington as the 30th pick in 2009, so the club was awarded the 31st pick in 2010. The two extra picks meant it was a 32-pick first round in 2010.
For the purposes of this redraft we are only going to consider players who signed in 2010. That means Kris Bryant (rejected the Blue Jays as an 18th-round pick) and Aaron Judge (rejected the Athletics as a 31st-round pick) are not part of our player pool even though they were drafted out of high school in 2010. They went to college and turned pro as 2013 draft picks.
With all that in mind, it's time to dive into our 2010 redraft. Come with me, won't you?
2010 MLB Redraft
| 1 |  |
Actual pick: Bryce Harper There were durability concerns (lots of 'em) about Sale in his draft year. He was a tall yet rail thin pitcher with a herky jerky delivery that didn't look good. He still is that, really. Sale didn't look built to last and that caused him to slide into the middle of the first round despite high-end stuff and performance. Despite those concerns, Sale did not begin to break down until late in 2018, nearly a full decade after being drafted. He was in the big leagues a few weeks after being drafted and spent 2011 in the bullpen before transitioning into the rotation. Sale has not yet won a Cy Young but he finished in the top six of the voting every year from 2012-18, and he ranked fifth in the decade in WAR and fourth in strikeouts despite essentially spotting the league 2010 and spending 2011 in the bullpen. His 45.3 WAR leads the draft class by almost 10 full wins. If the 2010 draft were held again today, the Nationals would jump all over that immediate impact and live with him breaking down later in his career. Sale and Stephen Strasburg, the No. 1 pick in 2009, would've been a hell of a 1-2 punch. | |
| 2 |  |
Actual pick: Jameson Taillon In a non-Harper draft, Machado probably would've gone 1st overall in 2010. Taillon was very highly regarded at the time, but no high school right-hander has ever been selected 1st overall, and I don't think he would've been the one to buck that trend. Machado had a great 12 months leading up to the draft and he was in the big leagues two years later, and has since provided more all-around impact than Harper. He never played at anything worse than a 4-WAR pace with the O's and, at age 27, it's entirely possible his best years are still to come. Given what he's done to date and what we can reasonably expect him to do going forward, Machado is a natural fit for the second pick in our redraft. | |
| 3 |  |
Actual pick: Manny Machado Harper was viewed as a once in a generation talent heading into the 2010 draft and, by and large, he's lived up to the hype. He entered the draft early -- Harper got his GED after his sophomore year of high school then spent a year dominating junior college (.443/.522/.987 with 31 home runs in 66 games), so he was essentially drafted as a high school junior -- and was in the big leagues as a 19-year-old, and an MVP as a 22-year-old. The last few seasons have been a bit up and down, but Harper has averaged 33 homers per 162 games and owns a career .385 on-base percentage. Plus he'll turn only 28 in October. Machado has been the better all-around player to date -- Manny has a relatively slight edge in career WAR (36.7 to 31.8) -- though I think Harper's power and plate discipline make him the safer bet going forward. The upfront value is what teams crave, so it's Machado second and Harper third in the redraft. | |
| 4 |  |
Actual pick: Christian Colon As a draft prospect, Yelich stood out for his innate bat-to-ball skills and athleticism, which led to him shifting from first base in high school to the outfield as a pro. It wasn't until 2018 that he broke out as an MVP-caliber player, but Yelich was still quite productive earlier in his career, and it always seemed like there was a monster lurking within, waiting to be unleashed. Yelich falls behind Machado and Harper in the redraft because those two had a more immediate impact and clubs value production during a player's team control years above all else. Really though, you could put those three in any order in this redraft and I wouldn't argue. On the bright side for the Royals, Colon drove in the World Series winning run in 2015, so that's cool. | |
| 5 |  |
Actual pick: Drew Pomeranz DeGrom was a two-way player in college and he had Tommy John surgery not long after the draft. Once he was healthy and finally able to focus on pitching full-time, he broke out as a true ace and is the reigning two-time Cy Young winner. deGrom is fourth in the draft class in WAR (35.5) but he's fifth in our redraft because he didn't make his MLB debut until 2014, when he was already 25. Harper, Machado, and Sale were already All-Stars (multiple time All-Stars in Harper's and Sale's case) at that point and Yelich now is the same age deGrom was in 2016. That's enough to knock deGrom down to the fifth pick in our redraft, which is still excellent. The Mets getting him in the ninth round will go down as one of the best steals in draft history. | |
| 6 |  |
Actual pick: Barret Loux Going into the draft there was some thought Simmons fit best on the mound long-term because his arm was so strong. The Braves kept him at shortstop and that's proven to be a wise move. He's a historically great defender -- Simmons is third in WAR (36.3) in the draft class behind Sale and Machado thanks to his glove -- who's occasionally had league average or better seasons at the plate. The defense is so good at a premium position that it lands Simmons sixth in our redraft despite his career 91 OPS+. Loux, it should be noted, did not sign with the Diamondbacks after the team found something scary in his arm during his physical. MLB eventually declared Loux a free agent and he signed with the Rangers, but didn't pan out. Arizona received the seventh pick in 2011 as compensation and used it on Archie Bradley. | |
| 7 |  |
Actual pick: Matt Harvey The Mets thought they were getting a multiple time Cy Young winner in the 2010 draft. They did, only it was deGrom, not Harvey. Grandal was on the draft radar for a very, very long time. He finally turned pro following a decorated career at the University of Miami and he was in the big leagues two years later. Grandal is an acquired taste -- he's been a relatively low average hitter throughout his career and he seems to have a knack for poorly timed passed balls -- but switch-hitting catchers with 25-plus homer power, strong on-base skills, and elite framing are insanely valuable. Seven picks into the draft, you can do a heck of a lot worse than landing a player like Grandal. | |
| 8 |  |
Actual pick: Delino DeShields Jr. High school catchers are notoriously slow to develop and Realmuto was no exception -- he split his time between catcher and shortstop as an amateur, and also played football, which didn't help matters -- but he's since established himself as the game's best all-around catcher. Realmuto turned only 29 in March too, so he should have a few peak years remaining. He's behind Grandal in our redraft because Grandal reached the big leagues much sooner -- he was a starter before Realmuto even made his MLB debut in 2014 -- and it's not like he's some slouch. Grandal is the second best all-around catcher in the game and his team didn't have to wait as long for him. These were the pre-tanking Astros days -- Jeff Luhnow was not hired as general manager until Dec. 2011 -- and Realmuto's timetable would've fit nicely with the organization given what came next. | |
| 9 |  |
Actual pick: Karsten Whitson In every draft there are high school pitchers with big frames and live arms you can dream on. It's not often that they work out, usually because they get hurt or because their delivery is a mess and they have no command, but Syndergaard did. Build a pitcher in a lab and he'd look an awful lot like the man they call Thor. Admittedly, Syndergaard has not been as consistently dominant as you'd like in his career to date, but a 119 ERA+ and more than a strikeout an inning in 716 innings is nothing to dismiss. Plus he's only 27 and should still have a few peak years remaining once he returns from Tommy John surgery. As for Whitson, he reportedly turned down a bonus north of $2 million to go to the University of Florida. He got hurt three years later and was never quite the same, and was an 11th-round pick in 2014. Take the money, kids. The Padres used the compensation pick the next year on Cory Spangenberg. | |
| 10 | 
Athletics
|
Actual pick: Michael Choice Harvey was the toughest player to place in this predraft. Injuries, including the often catastrophic combination of Tommy John surgery and thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, have derailed his career in recent years, but Harvey pitched at a Cy Young level from 2012-15. Sale was the only other pitcher from this draft class to provide that much short-term impact. Give general managers a truth serum and I think they'd tell you they'd take the guy with ultra-high upside but not much longevity over the good but not truly great player who hangs around a little longer. Imagine the 2012-13 A's with Harvey in the rotation. The ALDS could've been a much different story both years. | |
| 11 |  |
Actual pick: Deck McGuire Not the most straightforward path to the big leagues for Paxton. He turned down the Blue Jays as a supplemental first round pick in 2009, but when the NCAA found out he used an agent (Scott Boras) to negotiate with Toronto, the organization declared him ineligible to play in 2010. He spent that spring with the Grand Prairie AirHogs of the independent American Association rather than back at the University of Kentucky, then was drafted in the fourth round in 2010. Injuries have held Paxton back throughout his career -- he's thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title only once in parts of seven big-league seasons -- but he's always been very good when on the mound. Not a star, but the kind of production teams would happily take in the middle of the first round. | |
| 12 |  |
Actual pick: Yasmani Grandal It was unclear whether Pederson would actually sign going into the 2010 draft -- he was committed to the University of Southern California, where his father played -- but the Dodgers got him to turn pro in the 11th round, and he's since developed into a great platoon player. He's pretty useless against lefties (career .188/.263/.310), though hammers righties (.242/.353/.507) and is a very good defender who is center field capable. Also, Pederson turned only 28 in April, so he still has some peak years remaining. What he's done to date and what we can expect him to do the next few years puts him atop the second-tier outfielders in our redraft. | |
| 13 |  |
Actual pick: Chris Sale Eaton has always been a scout's favorite because he plays hard and does a little of everything. He slipped into the 19th round because he's only 5-foot-9 and because there was concern he didn't have a standout tool. As a big leaguer, Eaton has consistently posted high on-base percentages (career .363) with double-digit home run power, good baserunning, and solid defense. He's a pest and I mean that as a compliment. Turn a 19th-round pick into a player like Eaton and you've hit the jackpot. | |
| 14 |  |
Actual pick: Dylan Covey I have Kiermaier either too high or too low, and I'm not sure which. He's seventh in the draft class in WAR (25.7), but it's all tied up in defense, and center field defensive metrics can be unreliable. No position is more prone to the out-of-nowhere 4-WAR season thanks to defense. That said, Kiermaier has logged nearly 5,000 big-league innings in center field now, and the eye test certainly tells us he's great in the field. The drawbacks are that Kiermaier is a low on-base percentage hitter (career .306) who gets hurt every year. Still, the glove is special, and he plays an up-the-middle position. That's valuable. | |
| 15 |  |
Actual pick: Jake Skole We're firmly in "flawed player" territory now and Merrifield's flaw is that he was a late bloomer. He did not make his MLB debut until his age-27 season in 2016, and he still has only three full big-league seasons under his belt. That said, they've been three very productive seasons. Merrifield hits for average and gets on-base, he steals bases, and he's a very good defender who has played every position other than pitcher, catcher, and shortstop for Kansas City. Teams don't want to wait six years for their first-round pick to arrive and that knocks Merrifield down the board a bit, but, on a rate basis, he's been one of the best players in the 2010 draft. | |
| 16 |  |
Actual pick: Hayden Simpson Speaking of flawed players, Castellanos has been one of the game's most naturally gifted hitters the last half-decade, but he's also ranked among the game's worst defenders no matter where he's played. A career 113 OPS+ is nothing to scoff at -- it's a 120 OPS+ since 2016 -- and the fact Castellanos turned only 28 in March suggests he may just now be entering his peak years. If teams knew then what they know now, I suspect an American League club would've selected Castellanos earlier than this and simply put him at DH full-time, and let him rake. As for the Simpson pick, woof, that was a bad one. He was considered a fourth- or fifth-round talent going into the draft, but Cubs' evaluators saw him have maybe the best performance of his life during a Division II postseason game not long before the draft, and it landed him in the first round. He never made it out of High Class A. | |
| 17 |  |
Actual pick: Josh Sale Without digging through the transaction history of every player, I reckon Pomeranz has been traded more times than anyone in the 2010 draft class. He's been traded five times in his career, a career that's seen him make an All-Star Game as a starter (2016) and score a lucrative four-year contract as a reliever (2020). Injuries and inconsistency have hampered him along the way. Knowing what they know now, would a team have drafted Pomeranz in 2010 and immediately put him in the bullpen? I don't think so, he's had success as a starter, but it sure seems like he's poised to carve out a very good second phase to his career in the bullpen. | |
| 18 |  |
Actual pick: Kaleb Cowart Rosario has turned into pretty much the exact opposite of what he was expected to become. At his Puerto Rico high school he profiled as a good defensive center fielder who got on. base a good amount but didn't hit for much power. As a big leaguer he's a 32-homer corner outfielder with a career .309 on-base percentage. Weird. Corner outfielders with power and low on-base percentages are a dime a dozen, but Rosario is still only 28, and he has enough natural talent to suggest he could still take his game to another level in the coming years. | |
| 19 | |
Actual pick: Mike Foltynewicz At the time of the draft Ray was seen as a player who might've been better off going to college. He had an inconsistent draft year at his Tennessee high school and the thought was he could come out as a no-doubt first round pick after three years in school. Instead, the Nationals convinced him to turn pro, and later used him to land Doug Fister. Ray has been up and down over the years, mostly because he walks so many hitters, but high-strikeout lefties are always in demand. Plus he's still only 28. What he's done has been pretty good and there should still be some peak years to come. | |
| 20 |  |
Actual pick: Kolbrin Vitek Calhoun has been a personal favorite dating back to his time at Arizona State. He was very good early in his career, combining solid on-base percentages with some power and strong right field defense before things started to unravel in 2017. The fact Calhoun was in the big leagues in 2012 and an everyday guy by the middle of 2013 lands him firmly in the middle of our redraft first round. He arrived quickly and was a solid contributor. | |
| 21 |  |
Actual pick: Alex Wimmers No high school right-hander has ever been selected 1st overall and, in a non-Harper draft, Taillon would've had as good a chance to do it as any high school righty in draft history. He was the draft's best pitching prospect thanks to a special fastball/curveball combination. Alas, injuries have derailed him as a pro, including two Tommy John surgeries, the second of which he is rehabbing from right now. When healthy, Taillon has been really good, which is why he's still in the first round in our redraft. He just hasn't been healthy often enough. | |
| 22 | |
Actual pick: Kellin Deglan Dickerson can really hit, man. He owns a career 119 OPS+ in nearly 3,000 big-league plate appearances, and he's improved his defense to the point where he won a Gold Glove in 2018 and actually deserved it. Believe it or not, Dickerson is 15th in the draft class in WAR (13.0), though I have him rated a bit lower in the redraft because there are some younger players in the same range who stand to contribute more in the coming years. Dickerson has been a very productive player though. Heck of a find for the Rockies in the eighth round. | |
| 23 |  |
Actual pick: Christian Yelich To this day, Foltynewicz remains a tease. There are nights he'll look like a bona fide ace, and nights he'll look like he belongs in the bullpen, or even in Triple-A. He's thrown 682 2/3 big-league innings with a 98 ERA+ and there is definite value to chewing up innings at a league-average rate. Add in the fact he is still only 28 and it's easy to believe Foltynewicz's best is still to come. | |
| 24 |  |
Actual pick: Gary Brown It was a long, winding road to the big leagues for Gattis. He spent four years away from baseball before resurfacing at a Division II school -- he spent time in rehab and living in his truck during those four years -- and he eventually turned himself into a productive sometimes catcher, sometimes DH at the MLB level. He owns a career 111 OPS+ despite a .300 on-base percentage because he averaged 32 homers per 162 games. Teams will take that bat near the end of the first round and figure out a way to get it into their lineup. | |
| 25 |  |
Actual pick: Zack Cox It's taken some time, but Canha has blossomed into a sneaky productive player who had a 145 OPS+ and a 4.3 WAR season in 2019. He owns a career 113 OPS+ in parts of five big-league seasons and he can play all three outfield spots as well as first base. The Marlins did well selecting him in the seventh round in 2010. The A's did even better when they poached him in the Rule 5 Draft in 2014. | |
| 26 |  |
Actual pick: Kyle Parker Nothing about Gyorko's career really stands out, but he was a full-time big leaguer by 2013, and he owns a career 100 OPS+ in over 800 games. He's done that while playing every infield position as well. A versatile infielder with a league average bat who has been occasionally better than that (111 OPS+ from 2016-17) is solid value near the end of the first round. | |
| 27 |  |
Actual pick: Jesse Biddle Had we done this redraft exercise a few years ago, Sanchez undoubtedly would've placed much higher. He led the American League with a 3.00 ERA in 192 innings in 2016 and appeared to be on his way to stardom. Sanchez has since been derailed by injuries, however, and over the last three seasons he has an 84 ERA+. The fact he is only 27 gives me hope there are still good things to come. That he's currently rehabbing from major shoulder surgery leaves me pessimistic. | |
| 28 |  |
Actual pick: Zach Lee Depending what happens with Pomeranz, Reed is the 2010 draft's best reliever. He spent three years as a closer with the White Sox and D-Backs, and another year as a part-time closer later in his career. Reed owns a career 117 ERA+ with more than a strikeout per inning in parts of eight seasons, all as a high-leverage bullpen guy. He ranks 11th among pitchers in the draft class in WAR (6.0), starters included. | |
| 29 | |
Actual pick: Cam Bedrosian Injuries have sabotaged Smyly the last few seasons. Earlier in his career he put together a great season as a reliever (2013) and a very good season as a starter (2014), so he did provide some quick impact even if things haven't worked out since then. Smyly is still only 30 and he's healthy now, giving him a chance to revive his career once baseball starts back up. | |
| 30 | |
Actual pick: Chevy Clarke Remember when Duvall hit 33 homers with the Reds in 2016 and another 31 in 2017? I didn't. Slipped my mind completely. Duvall has spent the last few years as an up-and-down player, but his peak was reasonably high, and he still has value as a lefty mashing platoon option. His 97 career homers are 12th most in the 2010 draft class. Never would've guessed he's hit that many. By the way, the Angels have back-to-back picks here because the 29th pick was compensation for losing John Lackey, and the 30th pick was their natural first rounder. | |
| 31 | |
Actual pick: Justin O'Conner A freak baserunning accident brought Nelson's breakout 2017 season to a premature end. He returned to the mound last last season and is trying to get his career back on track, but, prior to the injury, he threw 611 1/3 big league innings with a 101 ERA+. Getting three seasons worth of league average production is pretty good value for a second-round pick. It's an acceptable return for a late first rounder, which Nelson is in our redraft. | |
| 32 |  |
Actual pick: Cito Culver Decent chance I have Dietrich too low in this redraft. At his peak from 2015-16, he authored a 121 OPS+ while playing four different positions, and he owns a career 107 OPS+ in nearly 2,500 big-league plate appearances. Dietrich was a nice platoon option for a number of years. | |
