2019 MLB awards watch: Tracking Mike Trout, Justin Verlander and the other contenders for MVP, Cy Young and more
Who are the frontrunners for the major awards? Let's take a look
By
Matt Snyder
•
6 min read
We're hitting the home stretch now in Major League Baseball, with just more than five weeks left to play. There's still plenty of time for a player to go nuts and secure an award -- take the Christian Yelich MVP example from last season -- but we should have a decent idea how some of the voting for the major awards would shake out. Let's take a look.
Bear in mind, these aren't predictions, but instead a snapshot of where things currently stand. (All stats below are through games on Aug. 20.)
AL MVP
Frontrunner: This is all Mike Trout and we discussed as much separately. Go read that for why, if you missed it.
Others in the mix: DJ LeMahieu, Alex Bregman, Xander Bogaerts, Matt Chapman, Jorge Polanco, Michael Brantley. As things stand, they are all in competition to finish as the runner-up to Trout. No one else is on his level.
One to watch: Rafael Devers has been absolutely out of his mind since the All-Star break (.342/.378/.689 with 21 doubles, 11 homers and 39 RBI in 37 games). If there's a 2019 Yelich, it might be Devers. The issue right now is if the voters want a non-playoff candidate, it's Trout.
NL MVP
Frontrunners: There are two frontrunners here with a clear separation from the pack. Cody Bellinger probably has a leg up on Yelich right now, but it's definitely these two against the field. They are close to neck-and-neck, so a lot of who wins is going to come down to who plays better the rest of the way. If they end up similar candidates and the teams continue on the same path, expect Bellinger to win due to playing on the best team in the league instead of a mediocre one.
Others in the mix: Anthony Rendon, Ronald Acuna, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Ketel Marte, Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman, Juan Soto, Jeff McNeil
One to watch: I don't think he can catch Bellinger or Yelich, but Pete Alonso has a road to end up in third. If the Mets continue their run while he ends up breaking the rookie record for home runs (52), I could see him jumping over most of the names listed above.
AL Cy Young
Frontrunners: We've got a race here. I don't think there's a clear frontrunner. Charlie Morton leads in ERA, but Justin Verlander is 0.04 behind, Gerrit Cole is 0.10 behind and Mike Minor is 0.17 back. Verlander leads in WHIP, with Cole second and Morton fourth. Shane Bieber is third in WHIP and sixth in ERA. Verlander leads in innings, Bieber is second, Minor is fifth, Cole is tied for eighth and Morton is 10th. Verlander leads in strikeouts by two over Cole. Bieber is fourth, Morton is sixth and Minor is 10th. Bieber leads with three complete games and two shutouts. Minor is first in WAR, Verlander is third, Morton fifth, Cole sixth and Bieber seventh.
Certainly others are worthy of mention, but I feel like our answer is between these five. If I had to guess right now, I'd say it's Verlander for his second. He would become the 20th pitcher in history to win multiple Cy Young awards.
Others in the mix: Believe it or not, Lance Lynn leads in Fangraph WAR. Could also throw in Lucas Giolito and Jose Berrios as guys who could get down-ballot consideration.
One to watch: Jose Berrios has been shelled two of his last three times out, but he's capable of a hot run. He had a four-start stretch in June where he pitched to a 1.63 ERA and averaged nearly seven innings per start. The Twins have a weak schedule the rest of the way and Berrios is already in seventh in ERA and sixth in innings. He could well close on fire and sneak into the top spot.
NL Cy Young
Frontrunner: Hyun-jin Ryu has a 1.64 ERA right now for the best team in the NL. The last time someone had an ERA sub 1.65, qualified for the ERA title and didn't win the Cy Young was 1968 (Luis Tiant). Post-integration, there have only been six qualifying pitchers to post an ERA below 1.65. I think Ryu would win unanimously right now.
Others in the mix: Jacob deGrom, Stephen Strasburg, Mike Soroka, Clayton Kershaw, Sonny Gray
One to watch: If he comes back soon -- he's due back Thursday -- and goes into vintage form, Max Scherzer could make a run. He leads the league in FIP, strikeout rate and strikeout-to-walk ratio. We've seen what kind of stretches he has and it's possible he does it again for his fourth Cy Young. That would equal Greg Maddux and Steve Carlton. The only pitchers to win more than four are Roger Clemens (seven) and Randy Johnson (five).
AL Rookie of the Year
Frontrunner: He's only played in 55 games, but Yordan Alvarez of the Astros leads the AL field in WAR. He's slashing .333/.424/.697 with 19 homers and 56 RBI. If he keeps playing well, I think he'll have played enough games to win the thing.
Others in the mix: Oscar Mercado, John Means, Brandon Lowe, Spencer Turnbull
One to watch: The preseason favorite was Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and he started out pretty cold. He has hit .376/.438/.663 with nine doubles, a triple, six homers and 28 RBI in his last 27 games. If this keeps up, he may well win it after all. My hunch is it comes down to Vladdito and Alvarez.
NL Rookie of the Year
Frontrunner: Unfortunately, Fernando Tatis Jr. got hurt twice and ended up only playing roughly half the season. He was better on a rate basis this season in most ways than Pete Alonso, but it's Alonso's award to lose now. Mike Soroka of the Braves provides stiff competition, but position players generally get the nod over pitchers when it's close. Alonso seems likely to get to 50 homers and that'll be that.
Others in the mix: Mike Soroka, Chris Paddack, Tatis
One to watch: I don't really have a good answer here. Will Smith is killing it with the Dodgers, but he's only played in 27 games so far this season. Alex Verdugo was having a great season for them as well, but he isn't due to return from injury any time soon.
AL Manager of the Year
Frontrunners: This is a tough one. I've got three big candidates. With how many injuries to key players the Yankees have gone through, they still have a 10-game lead in the AL East. Aaron Boone has to get credit here. The Twins last year won just 78 games and they are already to 77 this season. First-year manager Rocco Baldelli surely gets a lot of that credit in this vote as well.
Then there's Terry Francona. The Indians went through some injury and performance woes in the first half. They had a losing record on June 2 at 29-30. Since then, they've been among the best teams in baseball. If they come back from double digits to win the division, it's probably Tito here.
Others in the mix: Kevin Cash, Bob Melvin, A.J. Hinch
NL Manager of the Year
Frontrunners: The Cardinals entered Wednesday with a half-game lead in the NL Central. If they win that division, it might be Mike Shildt. Braves manager Brian Snitker surely gets consideration for winning a second straight year. The Dodgers running away with the NL West again should give Dave Roberts some merit here.
What about Dave Martinez? The Nationals were left for dead at 19-31, but have been almost as good as the Dodgers since.
Then we have a mix of unknowns. Joe Maddon doesn't seem to ever get enough credit for how well he deals with the Cubs' clubhouse and they are in playoff position again (it would an unprecedented fifth straight trip for the Cubs).
Others in the mix: The rest are the "if" candidates. If the Mets make the playoffs, does Mickey Callaway get votes? What about Gabe Kapler with the Phillies if they make it?
If the Giants make it, Bruce Bochy surely wins it. It would only be his second one. The future Hall of Famer hasn't won the award since 1996, presumably the mismatch here is due to this being a regular season award and his best work has been done in the playoffs en route to three World Series titles.
