Can Braves and Orioles turn it around in 2026? Biggest questions facing two disappointing would-be contenders

Two of MLB's worst teams were supposed to be two of its best. Now what?

The beauty and agony of baseball is that anything can happen in a season. You can try your best to divine what the future holds, leveraging the near-infinite wisdom and data that can be accessed these days, but you're never going to get it exactly right. There are myriad examples of that reality to be highlighted across the league, but with just more than two weeks remaining on the docket, two particular teams merit closer examination: the Atlanta Braves and Baltimore Orioles. 

Back in the spring, you could've reasonably predicted those clubs would meet in this fall's World Series. Instead, they're both going to miss the playoffs and finish with losing records. What's more is that their competitive dreams were dashed quickly. The Braves were nearly 10 games back in the National League East coming into June. By then, the Orioles were more than a dozen back in the American League East and had a new manager in place following Brandon Hyde's dismissal.

Failure is said to be life's greatest teacher. At minimum, it's clear that friction usually inspires change -- with the best of that change becoming known as growth. How, precisely, the Braves and Orioles respond to their setbacks is to be seen. Below, though, we've highlighted the three biggest questions facing each club heading into what should be an interesting winter.

Atlanta Braves

1. Can Strider get right?

More so than Ronald Acuña Jr. or Chris Sale's health, the biggest question facing these Braves is if Spencer Strider can recapture his old form. 

Strider, 26, was supposed to form a nasty triumvirate alongside Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach. While those two delivered when they were healthy, Strider did not. Instead, he's compiled a 4.86 ERA (86 ERA+) and a 2.59 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His 24.6% strikeout rate is the worst of his big-league career, down more than 12 percentage points from 2023, when he finished second in National League Cy Young Award voting.

The key for Strider is regaining his fastball's effectiveness. He's lost more than 1.5 miles per hour in velocity compared to 2023, as well as nearly two inches in induced vertical break. Correspondingly, Strider's whiff rate on his four-seamer has dropped from 28.7% to 17.4%. There's never been a better time for a pitcher to gain velocity, but shy of that, Strider will need to spend the winter figuring out just how he can combat his heater's lost oomph.

2. What to do up the middle?

It's easy to obsess over the questions facing the pitching staff, but for our purposes we think it's also worth highlighting the Braves' unpredictability at the up-the-middle positions.

Catcher should be a strength for Atlanta going forward, with Drake Baldwin demonstrating that he's ready for a starring role. The Braves have shown they're willing to roll with two quality backstops in the not-so-distant past, but it's to be seen if they'll keep Sean Murphy as part of a tandem situation, or if they'll look to move Murphy to upgrade elsewhere on their roster. Either way, it's probably safe to assume Baldwin is going to be viewed as a foundational piece.

Then again, the same declaration applied to center fielder Michael Harris II and second baseman Ozzie Albies not too long ago. Both clawed back after miserable first-half showings, and each remain under contract through at least the 2027 season. You do wonder, though, if the Braves would consider moving one of the two -- probably Albies, given that he has less time remaining on his contract and they have an internal replacement on hand in the form of Nacho Alvarez Jr. 

To be clear, we're not saying the Braves will trade Albies, merely that it would make sense, based on how teams operate, for them to at least get a sense of what he could bring back this winter.

Then there's the shortstop position. The Braves moved on from Orlando Arcia to Nick Allen early in the year, and recently made another change at the six when they acquired veteran Ha-Seong Kim. Kim, who is owed $16 million next season if he doesn't opt out of his contract, looked like a great get for the Tampa Bay Rays last winter. He didn't perform well during his time in St. Pete, but he's upped his game since joining Atlanta, albeit in a small sample.

There's a scenario where the Braves return all five of their key players at these positions -- the two catchers, Harris, Albies, and Kim. There are also scenarios where they return only three or four of them. It'll be interesting to see what route general manager Alex Anthopoulos takes.

3. Will Snitker return?

Speculation about manager Brian Snitker's future is nothing new. There've been rumors about his retirement plans ever since he signed an extension in January 2023 that tacked on a single season. It's not hard to understand why. Snitker is nearing his 70th birthday and he's been at the helm for the Braves for close to a decade. He could walk away tomorrow with no reason to feel bad.

Predictably, Anthopoulos was asked earlier this week about Snitker's future. If Anthopoulos knows what Snitker's intent is, he didn't show it. Rather, Anthopoulos offered the kind of general comments you would anticipate in this situation, namely that Snitker will always have a role in the organization and that the timing of his decision is up to him and him alone.

Whatever Snitker decides -- and whenever he decides it -- there exists a real possibility the Braves will have a different leader in the dugout for the first time in a long time. That may not necessarily alter Atlanta's outlook, but it could set the tone for a transformative winter.

Batting Around: Which disappointing team has a better chance of rebounding, the Braves or the Orioles?

Mike Axisa

Baltimore Orioles

1. Who manages next year?

The Orioles, too, face uncertainty with their managerial situation. Hyde was fired in mid-May, with the O's elevating Tony Mansolino on an interim basis. Mansolino has since led Baltimore to a winning record during his time in charge, but that doesn't mean he'll get to keep the job permanently. Indeed, top baseball operations executive Mike Elias has stayed mum on the possibility.

"I think it's too soon to comment on that subject," Elias told Baltimore Baseball earlier this summer about Mansolino's candidacy. "We've started out with a punch in the face this season, and we're trying to recover, and we're real focused on the night-to-night right now, and we're entering the month of July right now where there's going to be a lot going on around the organization. I'm just keeping the focus on that, but when the time comes, we'll broach the topic of how we're approaching the permanent manager decision."

It's worth remembering that Elias' initial 2018 managerial search stretched well into December, as he wasn't officially named Baltimore's general manager until mid-November. As such, this would represent the first time he's had an entire offseason to conduct the hiring process. 

2. Does Rutschman stay or go?

Adley Rutschman's short- and long-term future in Baltimore has been a topic of discussion since the Orioles signed rookie catcher Samuel Basallo to an eight-year extension just days after his big-league debut. Rutschman has just two seasons remaining of team control, meaning that Baltimore needs to make a call on what comes next sooner rather than later.

Rutschman, 27, is a two-time All-Star who's been the face of the Orioles franchise during their most recent rebuild. In parts of four seasons, he's posted a 116 OPS+ and has accumulated roughly 15 Wins Above Replacement, according to Baseball Reference's estimates. It's fair to assume that Rutschman would draw interest from any number of other clubs looking for a starting backstop, even if he is coming off what qualifies as the worst season of his career.

As such, the Orioles have three basic paths forward: trade Rutschman: keep him and use him in a timeshare with Basallo; or move either Rutschman or Basallo to another position. The last of those possibilities is the least desirable -- in large part because moving to first base or DH would slash Rutschman's trade value and/or Basallo's ceiling -- and can likely be ruled out. 

We'll just have to wait and see if the market presents a good enough offer for the Orioles to justify trading Rutschman. If it does, then Baltimore will officially be entering a new era.

3. How will Orioles upgrade rotation?

In new owner David Rubenstein's first offseason in charge, the Orioles raised their Opening Day payroll ranking from 26th to 15th. Baltimore should have ample financial wiggle room within which to operate this winter as well: three of the club's four highest paid players are slated to reach free agency, including starting pitchers Zach Eflin and Tomoyuki Sugano.

Presuming Rubenstein authorizes Elias to get aggressive, it would make the most sense for the Orioles to focus on upgrading their starting rotation. Even with Eflin and Sugano in tow, Baltimore's rotation ranks 27th in unit ERA. 

It seems unlikely that Elias will make a lucrative, long-term investment in a veteran starter like left-hander Framber Valdez -- such a move seems to clash with his philosophical leanings. At the same time, the Orioles could pounce on any number of starting pitchers seeking shorter-term deals. Might Baltimore be able to land Dylan Cease, a rumored past target? Or would Elias be willing to part with some of his prospect capital to obtain a Mitch Keller or an Edward Cabrera?

The good news is there should be ample opportunity for Elias and company to make up ground with their starting pitching, even if the exact shape of what lies ahead remains unknowable.