If July and August were April: 10 'early season' storylines for second half of 2017
Fans and analysts tend to overreact in April. What if we looked at August the same way?
There are now fewer than six weeks to go in the 2017 regular season. Three division races are all but over (AL West, NL East, NL West) while roughly half the American League remains in contention for a wild-card spot. There is a runaway favorite for the AL Cy Young and both Rookie of the Year awards. Everything else is pretty wide open.
The past four and a half months have shaped the current postseason and awards races, and the final six weeks will decide them. As always, we saw a lot of interesting things when the season opened in April, some of it proving to be real and some of it proving to be a small sample size fluke. Happens every year. Some of that April noise is meaningful. Much of it isn't.
April is the only month we treat that way. The season is young and everyone feels optimistic, plus it's so much easier to spot these trends early in the season. Let's take the same approach for the second half of the season, shall we? Here's what we'd all be talking about if July and August were April, written how it would be written in April.
The Dodgers might be the best team ever

At 27-6, the Dodgers have far and away the best record in baseball, and they're only the 13th team in history to win 27 of their first 33 games. The last to do it? The 1985 Tigers, who went 28-5 in their first 33 games. That 1985 Detroit team actually went 35-5 in their first 40 games and won the World Series.
The 2017 Dodgers are off to a historically great start, as that 27-6 record suggests. Check out their various rankings:
- Position player WAR: +6.9 (3rd in MLB)
- Pitcher WAR: +20.4 (2nd in MLB)
No other team ranks in the top five of both categories and only two other teams, the Astros and Cardinals, rank in the top 10 of both. The Dodgers came into the season looking like a juggernaut and so far they are living up to the hype.
(OK, this one could actually be true, but play along for now. Keep in mind the Dodgers did get off to a bit of a slow start this season before catching fire in May. They didn't take over sole possession of first place in the NL West until June 21.)
Judge needs to go back to Triple-A
Despite showing off his immense power in spring training, Yankees rookie Aaron Judge has struggled against MLB pitching this year, the same way he did last year. His numbers are eerily similar:
- 2016: .179/.263/.345 with a 44.2 percent strikeout rate
- 2017: .169/.329/.355 with a 37.4 percent strikeout rate
Judge is drawing a few more walks this year, though that only goes so far. He's having a hard time making contact, though when he does, the ball goes a mile. The Yankees could very well end up sending him back to Triple-A for more seasoning.
Chapman is the next young star
The Athletics are not very good this year (15-21), which isn't terribly surprising, though they do have themselves a bona fide star in the making in third baseman Matt Chapman. The 24-year-old is hitting .254/.326/.598 with nine home runs in 36 games, and he can play the heck out of the hot corner.
The scouting report on Chapman coming up through the minors said he had big-time power and Gold Glove caliber defense, and he's shown it early in his MLB career. He currently ranks ninth in baseball with +1.8 WAR and has been one of the game's elite two-way players early in his career.
Nola is emerging as an ace
An elbow problem sabotaged Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola in the second half a year ago, though he's returned in 2017 with a vengeance. Through six starts he has a 2.66 ERA in 44 innings, and all the underlying numbers are great as well. Here's where Nola ranks among the 90 pitchers with enough innings to qualify for the ERA title:
- ERA: 2.66 (12th)
- FIP: 2.77 (5th)
- K/9: 9.61 (29th)
- GB%: 49.2 percent (21st)
- WAR: +1.4 (7th)
Combining strikeouts and ground balls is a great way to be successful. Nola is a former top prospect and first-round pick, and he's showing why this year. The kid is a very polished young starter and has taken his game to the next level.
The Twins are loaded with breakout young position players

Few teams have an young core as impressive as the Twins right now. They have several young players in the middle of breakout seasons. Check it out:
- CF Byron Buxton: .338/.378/.608 with 4 HR and +1.3 WAR
- LF Eddie Rosario: .328/.370/.608 with 7 HR and +1.0 WAR
- SS Jorge Polanco: .310/.359/.488 with 2 HR and +0.7 WAR
Rosario, 26 in September, is the oldest of the three by several years. Buxton, you may remember, finished last season very strong, hitting .287/.357/.653 with nine home runs in September. He's carried that over to this season.
Also, don't sleep on Brian Dozier. He crushed 42 home runs last year and is already up to 13 home runs in 35 games this year. Add in the powerful Miguel Sano (.243/.323/.452) and the Twins have a dynamic position player core.
The Astros are still trying to make the jump
Despite the brilliance of Jose Altuve, the Astros are sputtering along at 16-19 through 35 games in 2017. They appeared to be on the verge of a long run of contention in 2015, when they went 86-76 and won the AL wild-card game, but then they went 84-78 in 2016 and missed the postseason. Now they're 16-19 early in 2017. Sometimes deep rebuilds hit a bump or two along the way.
The Red Sox have too many holes in their lineup
It's impressive, really, that the Red Sox are off to such a great start (21-14) despite getting so little from so many key members of their lineup. There are 174 players with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title right now. Here's where several Red Sox players rank in OPS:
- Mitch Moreland: .671 OPS (146th)
- Mookie Betts: .652 OPS (151st)
- Jackie Bradley Jr.: .583 OPS (166th)
- Xander Bogaerts: .548 OPS (169th)
That's four regulars among the 30 worst hitters in baseball so far this year. It's no surprise then that the Red Sox rank 10th in the league with 168 runs scored. Fortunately, they can really pitch, hence that strong 21-14 record.
Hendricks is showing 2016 was no fluke
After last season, it was fair to wonder whether Cubs righty Kyle Hendricks was actually that good. He threw 190 innings with a 2.13 ERA, and he did it with upper-80s sinkers and Bugs Bunny changeups. The number of pitchers whose true talent level is a near-2.00 in 190 innings is very small.
Hendricks is proving he is indeed an elite run preventer this season. His numbers aren't quite as good last year, but they are excellent:
- 2016: 2.13 ERA (3.20 FIP) with an 8.05 K/9
- 2017: 2.45 ERA (3.50 FIP) with an 8.18 K/9
Chances are Hendricks will never pitch to a 2.13 ERA across a full season again. That's hard to do. But it is starting to look like he's a true talent sub-3.00 ERA guy, and that is extremely valuable.
Thames' transition to MLB isn't going so well

The rebuilding Brewers took a shot on Eric Thames this offseason, bringing him back to MLB after three huge seasons in Korea. The former Blue Jays and Mariners outfielder hit .348/.449/.715 with 126 home runs in three years as a first baseman for the NC Dinos. Thames was a monster in Korea.
So far, his transition back to the big leagues hasn't gone well. He's hitting .230/.315/.416 with four home runs in 30 games, which isn't awful, but it is worse than the league average production at position. The league average first baseman is hitting .256/.340/.466 this year and Thames isn't particularly close to matching that.
It would be completely unfair to consider the Thames signing a failure at this point, the same way it would be unfair to consider it a massive success had he come out of the gate on fire. Thirty games is 30 games. He needs time to adjust to the league (and then vice versa). At three years and $15 million, it was worth a shot for the Brewers.
The White Sox's rebuild could mean a historically bad team
Over the winter the White Sox took the necessary steps to begin a massive rebuild, and while it has netted them the best farm system in baseball, the MLB product is pretty terrible right now. The White Sox are 10-26 through 36 games this year. That's a .278 winning percentage, or a 45-win pace across a full season. That would be tied for the ninth worst winning percentage in MLB history.
Here are the last three teams to finish a full season with a worse winning percentage:
That 2003 Tigers team was the worst MLB team I've ever seen, and the White Sox could very well threaten their record of futility this year. However, there is good news. The 2003 Tigers were terrible. The 2006 Tigers went to the World Series. A great farm system and smart decisions can turn things around in a hurry. For now, White Sox fans will have to endure some historically bad play while they wait for the farm system to produce the next winning core.
April has a way of magnifying things because it's so early in the season and everyone is excited about baseball. It's a great time of year. By time the dog days of July and August roll around, we tend to stop paying attention as much and don't notice as many trends as we do in April. Had the last few weeks of the season taken place in April, we'd all be talking about everything above a heck of a lot more than we are right now.
















