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The Tampa Bay Rays will look to defend their American League championship in 2021, and they'll try to do it once again following in their nonconventional way. In 2020, Tampa pushed its status from darkhorse contender to a real threat. And while their offseason doesn't reflect that of a serious contending team, general manager Erik Neander remains confident they'll be able to contend for a championship in 2021. 

It's true the Rays have the makeup of a potentially productive team, along with a talented group of young prospects, but the losses of Blake Snell (traded to Padres) and Charlie Morton (signed with Braves via free agency) are going to hurt.

It was all-around a quiet winter for the Rays. The 2020 World Series runner-up Rays didn't do much this offseason to help them return to the Fall Classic. Tampa traded Nate Lowe, Aaron Slegers and Snell, let Morton walk in free agency, re-signed catcher Mike Zunino and then gave out a handful of one-year deals to veteran starters like Rich Hill, Chris Archer and Michael Wacha. It's tough to see these moves keeping the Rays competing with the rest of the American League East, especially with teams like the Toronto Blue Jays, who significantly improved this offseason.

Let's preview the upcoming season for the reigning American League champs.

Win total projection, odds

  • 2021 SportsLine projection: 92-70
  • World Series odds (via William Hill Sportsbook): +2200
  • 2020 Record: 40-20 (first in AL East, lost in World Series)

Projected Lineup

  1. DH Austin Meadows
  2. 2B Brandon Lowe
  3. LF Randy Arozarena
  4. 1B Ji-Man Choi
  5. RF Manuel Margot
  6. 3B Joey Wendle
  7. SS Willy Adames
  8. CF Kevin Kiermaier
  9. C Mike Zunino

Bench: C Francisco Mejia, 1B/3B Yandy Diaz, INF/OF Mike Brosseau, INF/OF Yoshi Tsutsugo, OF Brett Phillips 

The Rays aren't lacking depth or talent, but they'll need offensive production if they expect to defend their title. We could see another year of big numbers from breakout star Randy Arozarena. Because of the abbreviated 2020 campaign, Arozarena, who played just 23 regular-season games and hit .281/.382/.641 (179 OPS+), will retain rookie eligibility in 2021. The Rays offense was heavily dependent on Arozarena and his production at the plate last October. The club certainly didn't get within two wins of a World Series title because of their team offense; they can thank their pitching for that. But, with the pitching losses this winter, the Rays are going to need to get improvement up and down the lineup from everyone. 

In terms of Tampa's outfield situation, it's jam-packed with Arozarena, Kiermaier, Meadows, Phillips and Tsutsugo. Though, for Tsutsugo, he may see most of his time at third base, according to Rays manager Kevin Cash. The second-year MLB player has played left field, designated hitter, first base and third base so far this spring training. If Tsutsugo can get more comfortable in his second big-league season and gain consistency with his bat, then the Rays would get more benefit from his defensive versatility.

Projected rotation

  1. RHP Tyler Glasnow
  2. LHP Ryan Yarbrough
  3. RHP Michael Wacha
  4. LHP Rich Hill
  5. RHP Chris Archer

Bullpen: CL Nick Anderson, Pete Fairbanks, Diego Castillo, Ryan Thompson, Chaz Roe, Ryan Sherriff, Cody Reed, Collin McHugh

When it comes to pitching, it's hard to doubt the Rays, so the additions of Wacha, Archer and Hill could help out Tyler Glasnow and Ryan Yarbrough in the rotation, but a lot is going to be dependent on health and consistency. Also, how can one really project a Rays rotation? It's hard to nail down what kind of rotation they'll use.

Here are two key issues to watch in Tampa in 2021.

1. What will starter signings provide?

The biggest question facing the Rays for 2021 is how will they restructure their rotation. The club will likely use spring training to try and determine how they'll structure a rotation and/or use openers. Veteran newcomers Rich Hill (who turns 41 later this month), Collin McHugh (33 years-old), Michael Wacha (29) and returning Chris Archer (32) will all be in the mix for starting roles.

"We understand we are probably not going to be able to replace Blake and Charlie with two other guys," manager Kevin Cash told reporters at spring training. "But we might be able to find some way of replacing all the production and the value they brought to our club with a handful of them."

In letting both Morton and Snell go, the Rays ultimately reached their goal of saving on payroll. Tampa managed to save $15 million on Morton and and $10.5 million this year (and $39 million over three years overall) on Snell. Finances always play a role in Tampa Bay's trades, and the Snell trade was no exception. In the return, the Rays got 21-year-old right-hander Luis Patino as the "centerpiece" of their return in the deal. Now, short-term, Patino could benefit from more time in the minors, but long-term, he could prove to be an impactful arm for Tampa. Here's more from our own R.J. Anderson on the youngster:

Patino is a quality athlete who averaged 97 mph on his heater and who generated nearly 50 percent whiffs with his slider during his big-league outings. He's on the smaller side, however, and he needs to continue to develop his changeup and his command if he wants to remain in a starting role long-term. The Rays have a history of suppressing their best players' service time; in Patino's case, it seems reasonable to think he could stand for more seasoning: coming into 2020, he'd appeared in just two games above the A-ball level.

In 2021, the Rays rotation is going to to be headlined by Glasnow and Yarbrough. Beyond them, the depth is shaky (Josh Fleming, Luis Patino, Shane McClanahan, Brent Honeywell Jr.) but the Rays did bring in Wacha, Hill and Archer this offseason to help round out the group. The Rays will be monitoring Archer's progress as he returns from a season lost to thoracic outlet syndrome, but they're confident he'll be ready for Opening Day. But, they'll be without Yonny Chirinos and Jalen Beeks this season, both due to Tommy John surgery. And pitching prospect Brendan McKay is still recovering from shoulder surgery after having missed all of 2020. Ultimately, Tampa's rotation will likely be an ever-evolving process throughout the course of the 2021 season. 

2. When will we see Wander?

The Rays still have the best prospect in baseball with 20-year-old shortstop Wander Franco. Franco hasn't played above Class A, but the elite prospect looks more and more ready for the big leagues each day.

Here's a quick scouting report from CBS Sports' R.J. Anderson:

Franco is a switch-hitter who makes a ton of contact, much of it hard; he garners above-average marks for his speed and his arm; and … look, there's just not much he can't do. One rival front-office member said that Franco could've probably held his own in the majors back in 2019, when he was an 18-year-old. He has a chance to be a special, special player -- it's just a matter of when the Rays elect to bring him up. Our guess would be after the Super Two deadline. 

Franco has the chance to develop into a franchise talent. The switch-hitting shortstop hit .327/.398/.487 with nine home runs, 56 walks and 35 strikeouts in 425 at-bats between Low-A and High-A in 2019. The minor-league season was canceled in 2020 and will be delayed at least one month this year due to the ongoing global coronavirus pandemic. The question for Franco becomes when the Rays give him the promotion. As has been the unfortunate case for plenty other clubs with talented prospects, teams almost always manipulate their top prospects' service time, and that could be the case for Franco. But, if the Rays bring up Franco sooner rather than later this year, he could make an immediate impact for the club.