Rays 2022 season preview: Projected lineup, rotation and three things to know as Tampa aims for AL East crown

Can the low-payroll Rays repeat as AL East champs?

By Dayn Perry

Mar 25, 2022 at 5:30 pm ET • 5 min read

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The Tampa Bay Rays in 2022 will be aiming for a number of franchise firsts. They'll be trying to win three straight AL East titles for the first time, they'll be trying to make the playoffs in four straight seasons for the first time, and most of all they'll be trying to win the World Series for the first time in franchise history. Can Kevin Cash's squadron, fresh off their first-ever 100-win season, meet all those lofty goals? Let's explore that very matter.

Win total projection, odds

2021 record: 100-62
2022 Sportsline projection: 96-66
World Series odds (via Caesars Sportsbook): +1500

Projected lineup

The Rays in 2021 boasted one of the best offenses in all of baseball, particularly once you adjust for the run-suppressing nature of Tropicana Field. Last season, they ranked second in the AL in runs scored and fifth in OPS. As for the park-adjusted metric OPS+, the Rays' figure of 112 ranked third in the AL. The good news is that they return the usual suspects. Lowe and Franco form one of the best middle-infield tandems in the game today, and Arozarena last season proved that his 2020 regular-season and playoff exploits were no fluke. There's reason to believe Mike Zunino's 2021 power spike may be at least partly sustainable, and Austin Meadows should be highly productive primary half of a DH platoon. This should once again be one of the top attacks in the game.

Projected rotation

Shane McClanahan, LHP
Drew Rasmussen, RHP
Corey Kluber, RHP
Ryan Yarbrough, LHP
Luis Patiño, RHP

If there's reason to suspect the Rays will take a step back in 2022, then it's here. The situation is hardly desperate given the impressive organizational pitching depth, but there's some concern here. Most notably, Shane Baz, who possesses the most upside of any Ray, is sidelined after undergoing elbow surgery. More on his situation and his importance can be found below. Tyler Glasnow is recovering from Tommy John surgery and is highly unlikely to pitch in 2022. Brendan McKay seems to be healthy and available, but coming off a procedure like thoracic-outlet surgery offers no guarantees of future effectiveness. On top of all that, Yonny Chirinos fractured his elbow while recovering from Tommy John surgery and may not be available until the second half of the season. If any team can make this situation work, it's the Rays, but said situation is tenuous right now.

Projected bullpen

Closer: Andrew Kittredge, RHP
Setup: Pete Fairbanks, RHP
Setup: JT Chargois, RHP
Middle: J.P. Feyereisen, RHP
Middle: Matt Wisler, RHP
Middle: Brooks Raley, LHP
Middle: Ryan Thompson, RHP
Middle: Jason Adam, RHP
Long: Jalen Beeks, LHP

This was a dominant corps in 2021. The Rays led the AL in bullpen ERA and led the majors in bullpen FIP. They also did so across an MLB-high 703 relief innings. Given Cash's excellence at managing bullpen roles and his calculated quick hooks with starters, that's not all that surprising. There's been some turnover -- the loss of Colin McHugh to Atlanta is a notable instance -- but the Rays' recent history of identifying and properly deploying relievers gives one confidence that this will once again be one of the best bullpens in the league. The addition of Brooks Raley in particular should provide needed depth from the left side.

Shane Baz's status

The 22-year-old right-hander is the Rays' ace in waiting. However, the Rays may be waiting a bit longer than anticipated. That's because Baz this spring was forced to undergo arthroscopic surgery to remove a loose body from his throwing elbow. As elbow surgeries for pitchers go, there are far worse outcomes, especially since the Rays say Baz has no structural damage. Barring setback, Baz should be able to rejoin the rotation at some point in mid- to late May. The unknowns, though, are whether he'll be able to stick to that timeline and whether his effectiveness will be compromised in the short-term.

Suffice it to say, the Rays could use peak Baz this season. He's got the stuff and minor-league track record to be a true No. 1 in the TB rotation. Here's what our R.J. Anderson said about him very recently in ranking Baz as the fourth-best prospect in all of baseball:

"Baz is the lone member of the top 20 who has already reached the majors. He appeared in three regular season contests with the Rays in 2021, accruing a 2.03 ERA and a 6.00 strikeout-to-walk ratio in a small sample of 13 innings. Baz demonstrated during his big-league cameo that he has three swing-and-miss pitches, including an upper-90s fastball (with movement and release-point characteristics that rival Gerrit Cole's) and a pair of breaking balls. He's simplified his delivery since being acquired from the Pirates as part of the ill-fated Chris Archer trade, allowing him to tally just 16 walks in 92 combined innings between the majors and minors last season. That would be impressive for anyone, let alone someone who was issuing a walk every other inning prior to the pandemic. Between Baz's pure stuff and his newfound control, he's the favorite to eventually succeed Tyler Glasnow (who also came over in that trade) as the Rays ace."

Given the depth concerns in the Rays' rotation right now, they need Baz to come close to realizing that potential upon his return, and they need that return to happen on schedule.

Wander Franco's first full season

Shortstop Wander Franco made the most of his debut campaign in 2021. In 70 games, he slashed .288/.347/.463 (129 OPS+). That's strong production, particularly for a plus fielder who mans a premium position. Those numbers become even more impressive once you consider that Franco was just 20 years old. At the same time, those outputs aren't surprising given Franco's scouting pedigree and superlative record of performance in the minors.

Now that Franco is another year older and has his first 308 big-league plate appearances behind him, the expectation is that he's going to get even better. Career arcs aren't always linear and predictable, but very likely Franco is going to wind up squarely in the AL MVP discussion within the next handful of seasons. Will 2022 be such a year? Quite possibly.

Corey Kluber's contributions

The Rays' concerns when it comes to rotation depth have been duly noted. Those concerns, however, will become more pronounced if Kluber isn't able to be both effective and generally healthy in 2022. Working against those hopes is Kluber's recent history:

He hasn't pitched more than 80 innings in a season since 2018.
Since the conclusion of that 2018 season, Kluber has been on the injured list for a fractured forearm, a torn shoulder muscle, and a shoulder strain. All three of those IL stints wound up being of the 60-day variety.
As a consequence, Kluber has worked a total of just 116 2/3 innings over the last three seasons, including only one inning during the abbreviated 2020 season.
He's continued a trend of year-to-year velocity loss.

The early returns from spring have been encouraging for Kluber, but his inability to stay health in recent years looms large, especially going into his age-36 campaign.