UFC 281: Three keys for Alex Pereira to upset Israel Adesanya for the middleweight championship
Pereira claims he has a mental edge after two kickboxing wins over the champ but he'll need a solid gameplan

Heading into his UFC 281 main event fight with middleweight champion Israel Adesanya, Alex Pereira believes his two kickboxing wins over the champ give him a clear mental edge. In fact, the challenger believes Adesanya has been "running" from the inevitable clash since Pereira joined the UFC roster.
"Right after it was announced that my next fight would be for the belt against him, he and his whole team said it was a bit unfair that I was fighting for the belt because I just got here," Pereira said on MMA Fighting's "Trocacao Franca" podcast. "That Adesanya did so many fights and I should do the same. Man, I'm just hearing that and taking it as something positive for me. That shows me he pretended he wanted [the fight] and when I got here, his whole team was against it. That shows all of them, he and his team, are mentally shook."
The champion hailing from New Zealand has been nearly perfect since joining the promotion as a middleweight. His lone slip up came in a one-sided defeat against Jan Blachowicz in a bid to become a two-division champion at light heavyweight. Outside of that blip, Adesanya has beaten every single rising challenger in the 185-pound division, including two of them twice (Robert Whittaker and Marvin Vettori).
In the first of their kickboxing bouts, Pereira took a close decision victory. Adesanya seemed to have figured things out in the rematch, more effectively playing matador to Pereira's pressure style and even forcing a standing eight-count in the second round. Then, in the third round, Pereira landed a crushing left hook that sent Adesanya crashing to the canvas and unable to even attempt to rise as Pereira stood over him screaming.
Despite tasting his rival's power -- which will only be amplified with smaller MMA gloves -- Adesanya has talked plenty of trash about Pereira as a mixed martial artist while also discounting any idea of Pereira entering the Octagon with an edge. He has even gone so far as to give himself credit for Pereira getting a shot at the title just four fights into his UFC journey.
Whether a mental edge exists for Pereira or not, it will only matter if he is able to execute in the Octagon. With that in mind, let's take a look at what Pereira has to do to take the middleweight crown.
Keep Adesanya uncomfortable
One way any head games could come into play is if Adesanya is hesitant to engage. Adesanya has fallen into the trap of being too tentative at times in his career. While Adesanya is a brilliant technician, when he respects an opponent's power, he can sometimes fall into stretches of looking to point fight or even downright limiting his offensive engagement That was clear in his bizarre fight with Yoel Romero. Even in his fight with Jan Blachowicz, Adesanya landed fewer strikes than Blachowicz on the feet in the early rounds. Pereira doesn't have the strength or wrestling threats of those fighters, but he has the potential for his power to cause the same hesitation in the champ.
To accomplish this, Pereira is going to have to pressure hard and land some early shots. Adesanya is the better technical striker and if Pereira allows the fight to play out on Adesanya's terms, he's going to slowly be picked apart. Once Adesanya gets rolling and has you biting on feints and leading the dance, it all begins to snowball quickly.
Instead, Pereira needs to force the issue, land clean shots and keep Adesanya from getting comfortable with any sort of engagement. That said, Adesanya is a man who has taken issue with criticism in the past and decided to make a statement, as he did against Paulo Costa after the awful fight with Romero.
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Punish the leg kicks
Adesanya averages 31 leg kicks landed per fight in his five most recent outings while throwing 36. The accuracy and reliability of those kicks speak to Adesanya's technical skills as well as his use of the tool to dictate range and engagement. Adesanya's snowballing style feeds off these kicks.
Pereira has to make Adesanya pay when he throws outside leg kicks, checking the kicks and following forward with counter right hands and leg kicks of his own. The more Pereira makes Adesanya pay for using the tools that are the foundation of his striking game, the less those tools are likely to be used.
Pressure could also help Pereira minimize the effect of Adesanya's leg kicks. Costa never generated enough pressure and it allowed Adesanya to brutalize the lead leg. But the pressure has to be effective and with purpose -- and with punishment being sent Adesanya's way when he does attempt to fire away to the legs.
Be ready for surprises
Adesanya has a brilliant tactical mind and he works with a camp at City Kickboxing that shares that trait. Adesanya has talked about how he sees Pereira as one-dimensional and that he "knows something" Pereira doesn't ahead of the fight.
These statements may not guarantee that Adesanya intends to show some new grappling-based wrinkles to his game at UFC 281, but that possibility is very much in play. Adesanya has far more mixed martial arts experience than Pereira and has been through many training camps where wrestling has been a focal point. Even if that past wrestling focus has been on defense, Adesanya has had the time to sharpen tools beyond what Pereira has been able to do in a comparatively short amount of time.
Pereira has to be ready for Adesanya to employ tactics that make the fight something more than a kickboxing match with small gloves. If his camp did not focus on wrestling and clinch work, Adesanya could take over the fight by simply being more well-rounded.
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