10 questions that will shape NBA trade deadline: What happens with AD? Who will sell? Is Giannis staying put?
Trae Young is off to the Wizards, so what's next in NBA trade season?
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9 min read
The NBA trade deadline is four weeks away. In between now and Feb. 5, there will be a steady stream of slop: rumors, reports and hypothetical trades. A relatively small percentage of the deals discussed will actually come to fruition, but that's OK. On Wednesday, exactly one year after Nico Harrison and Rob Pelinka's coffee-shop meeting in Dallas, the Atlanta Hawks traded a four-time All-Star who used to be the face of the franchise. In theory, your favorite team's front office could be debating a blockbuster move right now.
Here are 10 big questions ahead of the 2026 trade deadline, starting with a team that might not be done making deals.
1. What's next for the Hawks?
The Trae Young era is over for Atlanta. It is unclear, though, exactly what comes next, and the Hawks don't necessarily need to figure that out before the trade deadline. By sending him to the Washington Wizards for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert, they've gained an enormous amount of flexibility.
The Hawks were sellers in the Young trade, but they can still use Kristaps Porziņģis' $30.7 million expiring contract and/or Luke Kennard's $11 million expiring contract to be buyers in another one. At 18-21, they're ninth in the East and only four games out of fifth. Their top priority should be setting the team up for sustained success starting next season, not salvaging this one, but there might be an opportunity to do both.
I don't understand their reported fascination with Anthony Davis whatsoever, given his age, injury history and contract status. But there's nothing wrong with them being aggressive on the trade market.
McCollum and Kispert should both fit their offense well, by the way.
2. What about Giannis and the Bucks?
Nobody seems to think Giannis Antetokounmpo is going anywhere (yet). Assuming that he remains reluctant to be the bad guy by demanding a trade, then he'll finish the season in Milwaukee. The Bucks, who are 16-21 and 11th in the East but have a +10.4 net rating in Antetokounmpo's minutes, reportedly want to strengthen the roster around him.
They do not, however, have a ton of tools at their disposal. They can trade one first-round pick (in 2031 or 2032) and swap another one, but, according to ESPN, they haven't put either on the table and would only do so if they were getting a "significant star" in return. That's reasonable, but, without a pick, how much can they realistically expect to get for Kyle Kuzma ($22.4 million this season, $20.3 million next season) and Bobby Portis ($13.4 million this season, $14.5 million next season, $15.6 million player option in 2027-28)?
Milwaukee has discussed going after Michael Porter Jr., Jerami Grant, Zach LaVine and Malik Monk, per ESPN and The Athletic. Given all the heavy lifting Antetokounmpo has had to do, it is not surprising that the front office is looking for more offensive firepower.
If the Bucks do nothing now, they may be able to make a bigger splash in June. On draft night, they could trade their 2026, 2031 and 2033 picks if they think the move would convince Antetokounmpo to sign a contract extension.
3. Who really wants AD?
OK, that's not the real question. The real question is who wants to give up real stuff to match Davis' $54.1 million salary just months before he'll be eligible to sign a four-year, $275 million extension?
The answer might be nobody. In addition to the Hawks, the Raptors are reportedly interested in him, but that doesn't mean either team is willing to offer Dallas the type of deal it would accept ... or willing to offer Davis the type of extension he would accept.
The Mavericks could wait until the offseason to trade Davis. According to The Athletic, though, Davis' agent, Rich Paul, has "already encouraged the Mavericks to be more aggressive in assessing Davis' current market." It makes sense that Davis, 32, would want to sign an extension this offseason, and that appears extremely unlikely in Dallas. Hmm!
4. Are MPJ, Markkanen or Murphy going anywhere?
Just for fun, here's a little comparison:
| | Height | PPG | TS% | Contract | Age | Team record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Michael Porter Jr. | 6-foot-10 | 26.1 | 62.9% | $38.3 milllion, $40.8 million | 27 | 11-23 |
7-foot-1 | 27.8 | 61.6% | $46.4 million, $46.1 million, $49.8 million, $53.5 million | 28 | 12-24 | |
6-foot-8 | 21.3 | 63.5% | $25 million, $27 million, $29 million, $31 million | 25 | 8-31 |
All three of these guys are big forwards who can shoot the hell out of the ball and are having career seasons. Porter and Markkanen have legitimate All-Star cases and Murphy dropped 42 points on the Lakers on Tuesday. They're not on good teams, but that doesn't mean they're being shopped, either. If you're reading this, there's a decent chance you've imagined each of them as a Piston. (More on Detroit later.)
Murphy is a particularly appealing trade target because of his incredibly team-friendly contract. It might take a package similar to what Memphis got for Desmond Bane to pry him or Markkanen away from their current teams, though. If suitors are scared off by that kind of asking price, then maybe the Nets can take advantage of the situation. As effective as Porter has been in Brooklyn, flipping him for draft capital would be a big-picture win, considering it also picked up Denver's 2032 first-round pick by taking on his contract last offseason.
5. Can the Warriors make a meaningful move?
Golden State, as always, wants to improve its roster around Stephen Curry. It's not going to make a reckless, all-in move, but if it can buy low on a difference-maker -- like it did with Jimmy Butler last season -- it will do so.
This time around, it seems highly unlikely that the Warriors will acquire a player of Butler's caliber. And they've found themselves in a strange situation with their most important trade piece: Jonathan Kuminga is completely out of the rotation.
After a lengthy holdout last offseason, Kuminga, 23, signed a two-year deal with Golden State that is paying him $22.5 million this season and includes a team option for 2026-27. The Warriors would like to move him before Feb. 5, but, according to ESPN, there has not been "substantial movement" on the trade front and the Kings are still the team most interested in acquiring him.
Kuminga's first few games of the season were stellar. It's a shame he couldn't keep that up. He still has upside, but it's hard to manufacture a bidding war for a guy who's getting DNP-CDs over and over again. In theory, they could package him with the salaries of Moses Moody ($11.6 million) and/or Buddy Hield ($9.2 million) to acquire a high-priced player.
6. Will the Kings have a fire sale?
Sacramento GM Scott Perry told ESPN the team needs to get younger. It's time for yet another rebuild, but Perry's front office has a problem: In the age of the second apron, the Kings' vets don't have much trade value.
LaVine, 30, is making $47.5 million this season and has a $49 million player option next season.
DeMar DeRozan, 36, is making $24.8 million this season and is owed $25.7 million ($10 million guaranteed) next season.
Domantas Sabonis, 29, is making $42.3 million this season and is owed $45.5 million next season and $48.6 million in 2027-28.
Of the three big names, Sabonis is the one most likely to bring back a significant return, but he's been sidelined with a torn meniscus since mid-November. The Raptors are interested in him, according to The Athletic, but it's unclear what they'd be willing to give up.
Monk, 27, is making $18.8 million this season, is owed $20.2 million next season and has a $21.6 million player option in 2027-28. Sacramento has put him in Kuminga trade proposals, but the Warriors view his contract as "negative value," per ESPN. Minnesota may be interested in him, per ESPN 1320.
The belle of this ball is fourth-year guard Keon Ellis, who has supplanted Monk in the Kings' rotation. He's on a $2.3 million expiring contract, and most of the league is reportedly in on him. The Athletic reported last month that his price tag is believed to be a protected first-round pick.
7. Are the Celtics buyers, sellers or both?
Boston is in an interesting place. The team is about $12.1 million above the luxury-tax line, so it's a candidate to shed salary -- in this case, by moving Anfernee Simons' contract -- before the deadline. Boston is also 23-13, with the best net rating in the Eastern Conference, so it's a candidate to make a win-now move.
The Celtics called the Clippers about Ivica Zubac early in the season, and they do not want to give up a first-round pick simply to duck the tax, according to HoopsHype. But what if they constructed a deal that allows them to duck the tax and strengthen the roster? This would likely need to be a three-team deal in which Simons lands in Brooklyn, but it's within the realm of possibility.
Also within the realm of possibility: Brad Stevens' front office deciding that this team is too good to even worry about the luxury tax right now. There's absolutely nothing stopping the Celtics from adding salary, as they're almost $8 million below the second apron and they have a few trade exceptions at their disposal.
NBA trade deadline: Breaking down the teams and players that could be involved in tax-ducking moves
Sam Quinn
8. Are the Pistons and Spurs going to add reinforcements?
Of all the teams that profile as buyers, these are the most fun to think about. Detroit has the best record in the East, San Antonio's second in the West and, while neither team necessarily needs to add talent right now, both are in a position to do so.
To me, this is more important for the Pistons, whose spacing issues are more severe than the Spurs'. If they're going to take a big swing, that probably means waving goodbye to Tobias Harris, who is on a $26.6 million expiring contract. I wonder, too, if Detroit might end up moving one of its recent draft picks. It probably can't pay everybody, especially because Jalen Duren has earned a pricey extension. Jaden Ivey is on a $10.1 million expiring contract heading into restricted free agency, by the way.
Trajan Langdon's front office has signaled that it will not be overexuberant. In theory, though, the Pistons could make virtually any type of move. They own all their future first-round picks, and they have a few extra seconds.
San Antonio has all of its first-round picks, too, and, if it's willing to part with any of them, it'll have options. Kelly Olynyk's $13.4 million expiring contract could be useful, and Jeremy Sochan ($7.1 million) is an obvious trade candidate now that he's rarely seeing the floor.
9. Are the Timberwolves going to get a guard?
Minnesota was reportedly not in the mix for Young, and it's not looking to pull off some kind of blockbuster to acquire LaMelo Ball or Ja Morant, either. The Wolves could use another ballhandler, though, after letting Nickeil Alexander-Walker walk. Minnesota has looked into Coby White and Collin Sexton, per The Stein Line.
Complicating matters, the Wolves can't take back more salary than they send out, and they have zero first-round picks to trade. They'll have to be creative if they want to add someone who can be in their playoff rotation.
10. Who else will be buyers?
Any number of Eastern Conference teams could talk themselves into the idea that one trade could get them to the Finals. With a league-worst 6-31 record, Indiana isn't one of them, but it has to look at filling its hole at center, with an eye on competing next season.
The West isn't nearly as wide open, but teams will try to make upgrades anyway. The Clippers, for example, can now justify making a move in hopes of getting into the play-in. When they were dreadful earlier this season, it looked like they could go the other direction.
