The Saturday, Nov. 2, NBA schedule tips off at 5 p.m. ET as Chris Paul and the Oklahoma City Thunder (1-4) host Jrue Holiday and the New Orleans Pelicans (1-4) at Chesapeake Energy Arena. OKC is 3-2 against the spread thus far in the 2019 NBA season, while the Pelicans are 2-3 ATS. Both sides are moving on to new eras after losing franchise players over the offseason as Russell Westbrook went to the Rockets and Paul George ended up with the Clippers, while Anthony Davis landed with the Lakers. Oklahoma City is favored by three points in the latest Thunder vs. Pelicans odds, while the over-under is set at 228, up half a point from the opening line. Before you make any Pelicans vs. Thunder picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
This model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and anyone who followed it last season saw massive returns. In fact, the model finished 300-252 on all its top-rated NBA picks. On top-rated NBA picks against the spread and on the money line alone, the model returned a whopping $4,280. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, it has simulated Pelicans vs. Thunders 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 60 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.
The model knows that Brandon Ingram has become the go-to guy in New Orleans with Zion Williamson recovering from knee surgery. Ingram is averaging 26.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.2 blocks per game and nobody else on the Pelicans roster is averaging more than 13.8 points per game.
However, with Ingram carrying such a heavy scoring load, the New Orleans offense has a tendency to be a bit predictable at times. To make matters worse, the Pelicans rank in the bottom-third of the NBA in defensive eFG% (.521), defensive TOV% (12.9), DRB% (73.7) and FT/FGA (.228).
But don't assume that just because the Pelicans have had a few bad games defensively that it means OKC is a lock to cover the Pelicans vs. Thunder spread.
The model has also seen Oklahoma City struggle after trading Westbrook and George away for a haul of draft picks this offseason. Paul was supposed to aid that transition by getting his teammates involved, but Paul is averaging just 3.6 assists per game in the first five contests of the season and the Thunder are only shooting 43.4 percent from the floor as a team (21st in the NBA).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has taken on a major role offensively after coming over in the George trade, averaging 21.6 points per game. However, the Thunder will need more offensively from Paul, Danilo Gallinari, Steven Adams and Dennis Schroder if they're going to test a below-average Pelicans defense on Saturday.
So who wins Pelicans vs. Thunder? And which side of the spread hits well over 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Thunder vs. Pelicans spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
