Predicting NBA All-Star reserves: Paul George, Ben Simmons among tough calls

Seven players from each conference will join the starters

By now you likely know the deal with the way the NBA All-Star teams are being chosen, but if not, here's a quick recap. First, there is no more East vs. West. Players from both conferences will compose each team, which will be chosen by Steph Curry and LeBron James (the two captains as the leading vote-getters) in something of a playground-style draft. The 10 starters were, as usual, chosen by a combination of fan, media and player balloting. Those results are already in, and they are as follows: 

• LeBron James (Captain)
  
• Stephen Curry (Captain)
  
• Giannis Antetokounmpo
  
• Kevin Durant
  
• Kyrie Irving
  
• James Harden
  
• Anthony Davis
  
• Joel Embiid
• Demar DeRozan
  
• DeMarcus Cousins
  

LeBron, who will have first pick as the top vote-getter, and Curry will first select their starting lineups from this group of players. After that, they pick their seven reserves from the group of 14  -- seven from each conference -- that the league will announce on Tuesday. There are some seriously tough calls to make for these reserve spots, but I'm going to do my best here to predict which 14 players that will make the cut and become eligible to be drafted by one of the captains. Here goes ..

Western Conference

Butler is, or at least should be, a borderline MVP candidate with what he's done through the first half of the season for Minnesota. He's playing both ends, as usual, averaging better than 21 points, five rebounds and five assists, and the Wolves are 15.8 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. That's the best mark on a team that is in line for a top-four seed in the West.  

Don't look now, but Westbrook is a nose hair from averaging a triple-double for the second straight season. As of Tuesday, he's at 24.8 points, 10.1 assists and 9.7 rebounds per game. Throw in the two steals a night and nobody else in the league is coming close to that range of numbers. 

Towns is right there with Butler in terms of net rating, with the Wolves 14.3 points per 100 better with him on the floor. The defense is coming around, though he still loses track off the ball and too often relaxes after the first action, but the offensive numbers are too much to turn away at 20 points and 12 boards a night on 54-percent shooting, including over 41 percent from three. If the Wolves weren't playing so well, it would be tempting to give this spot to Nikola Jokic, who is one of two players in the league who is averaging at least 16 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and one steal a night, with the other being DeMarcus Cousins. 

Two players are averaging at least 11 points, seven rebounds, seven assists, one block and one steal per game this year. One is LeBron James, the other is Draymond Green. It's tempting to give this spot to Paul George, who is leading the league in steals while scoring over 20 points a night on better than 43 percent from three, but Golden State is the best team in the league while the Thunder have underperformed as a whole. 

With what the Spurs have done in the absence of Kawhi Leonard, there's no way they can get blanked on the All-Star team. Aldridge has stepped up as a No. 1 option for San Antonio, scoring 22.3 points a night to go with 8.7 boards. Another spot that could go to George, but again, the Spurs have to have at least one All-Star and Gregg Popovich unfortunately doesn't wear a uniform. 

Wild cards

If Chris Paul hadn't missed 14 games, this spot would be his, but Thompson gets the nod on the strength of the most efficient three-point shooting season of his career at 45.3 percent from downtown. A 50-40-90 season is not out of the question for Thompson, who has also missed just one game so far and is rebounding better than ever while averaging better than 20 points a night as a third option. 

Seems like this guy is always getting snubbed in one way or another, but not on this list. Lillard is a star who is keeping the Blazers -- who realistically don't have the collective talent of some of the teams they're keeping pace with -- in the thick of the playoff mix with his 25.2 points, 6.6 assist and 4.8 rebounds a night. 

SNUBS: Paul George, Chris Paul, Lou Williams, Nikola Jokic, Devin Booker, Clint Capela, Steven Adams

Eastern Conference

Barring something unforeseen, Oladipo is a lock for Most Improved Player. He has been a revelation for the Pacers, averaging 24.2 points and 5.2 rebounds (both career highs) while shooting better than 40 percent from three for the first time in his career. Remember when everyone said Indiana got robbed in the Paul George trade? Turns out, not so much. 

Kyle Lowry's scoring numbers are down, but the Raptors are better for it. Toronto isn't relying on him to create so much and is sharing the ball more than ever, while Lowry is rounding out his game with the best rebounding marks of his career as DeRozan has vaulted himself into the league's elite scorers. Still, it's not like the numbers still aren't fantastic. Entering Tuesday, Lowry is one of three players averaging at least 17 points, six assists, six rebounds and one steal. The other two are LeBron and Westbrook. 

Al Horford's numbers don't jump off the page, but if you know hoops, you know how valuable this guy is, and has been, the Celtics. He does a little of everything, posting 13.3 points, 7.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists and one steal per night while shooting 43 percent from three. He's also the best passing big this side of Nikola Jokic, and is a legit candidate for Defensive Player of the Year. 

Drummond leads the league with 15 rebounds a night, and he's also scoring better than 14 a game thanks in large part to something or a miracle makeover to his free throws, which he's knocking in at a 63-percent clip after shooting well under 40 percent the last two seasons and never shooting better than 42 percent at any point in his career. He felt like a lock for much of the season, but Detroit has fallen off lately and you could, perhaps, see Drummond lose his spot to someone like Kevin Love. But I don't think so. 

This is a really tough one. If we could classify Ben Simmons as a front-court player, I'd put him above Porzingis, but Simmons is technically a point guard and thus I'm going with the Unicorn here. Porzingis has good overall numbers: 23.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, just under 39 percent from three. But his game has dipped from the early part of the season, when he was looking like one of the best players in the league. 

Wild cards

Another really close call as I had Kemba Walker's name in here at least three times before I finally settled on Dragic, who's the closest thing to a star on a Miami Heat team that is battling for a top-four seed in the East. Dragic is often overlooked among the league's elite point guards, but he is just rock solid at 17-4-4 a night as a tough defender and one of the best probers in the league in terms of getting into the lane and kicking out to shooters. Every opposing coach that comes through Miami talks about Dragic as the head of the snake and you can feel the respect they have for his game. Players feel the same, and considering he's never been an All-Star, it's time. 

The numbers are just too good to leave Simmons off, despite his complete lack of shooting and the problems that poses for the Sixers. Again, if I could put Simmons at forward, I would do that, which would bump Porzingis off, and then I'd give this final wild-card spot to Kemba or Bradley Beal, who's been really good for the Wizards. But rules are rules, and Simmons is like nothing we've seen at the point guard position since Magic Johnson. Entering Tuesday, Simmons is averaging 16.6 points, 8.0 rebounds, 7.2 assists, 1.9 steals and just under a block per game. Westbrook is the only other player in the league putting up those numbers. The shooting is a problem, almost enough of one to keep Simmons off this list, but he gets on as an elite stat stuffer for a Sixers team that is really good when both Simmons and Embiid are on the court. 

SNUBS: Kevin Love, Bradley Beal, Aaron Gordon, Tobias Harris, Kemba Walker, John Wall