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Beating the New England Patriots in January in Foxborough is similar in scope to invading the lands north of The Wall and vanquishing an unending army of the dead. Bill Belchick and Tom Brady? At home? In the playoffs? With a trip to the Super Bowl at stake? Say no more. This truly is Patriots-only territory.

Nobody actually thinks they can go into New England and emerge with a win, but one team per season is required to try anyway. Except this time, a youthful, feisty and potentially foolhardy group of Jaguars truly believes it's going to do the impossible by bringing down the mighty Patriots. 

Take it from star cornerback Jalen Ramsey:

Seven Hells.

In that sense, the Jaguars have a lot in common with Jon Snow and his very bad plan that centered on capturing a live White Walker beyond the wall and transporting him back to civilization. Jon actually believed he could pull off such an impossible feat. And so do the Jaguars. 

The thing is, Jon did accomplish his mission impossible, though it came at a high cost. I'm not here to tell you the Jaguars will pull a Jon Snow and beat the Patriots on Sunday, but I am here -- along with Will Brinson -- to tell you that the Jaguars are going to give the Patriots a ton of problems. They're going to present a bigger challenge for the Patriots than the Steelers would've. For most teams, hanging around with the Patriots in Foxborough in January is too tall of an order. But the Jaguars own the necessary players to follow a recipe that has worked against the Patriots in the past.

The line for the game has been set at 9.5 points -- in favor of the Patriots, of course. That's way too high. I'm picking the Jaguars because this is setting up to be a one-score game, during which the Patriots will be tested and pushed to the brink. The Jaguars might not fulfill Ramsey's prophecy -- don't worry, I won't try to force a Ramsey-Ramsay connection because that seems vastly inappropriate -- but they will cover the spread.

The last time the Patriots lost in the playoffs: Jan. 24, 2016, to the Broncos in the AFC Championship Game. That game was played in Denver, which makes the circumstances different from Sunday's game, but the Broncos used a formula that the Jaguars will also deploy. The Broncos technically had Hall of Famer Peyton Manning under center, but in actuality, they had the corpse of Peyton Manning at quarterback. Manning finished the 2015 regular season as the league's lowest-rated quarterback (67.9) among 34 qualifiers. And the Broncos still won 20-18.

They won because they hit the heck out of Brady and covered the heck out of his receivers. In that game, the Broncos' defense sacked Brady four times, hit him 17 times and knocked away 10 passes. Future Hall of Fame pass rusher DeMarcus Ware played for the Broncos in that game. When he retired last year, he described the only way to beat Brady.

"The way to beat Tom Brady is to hit him," he wrote for The Players' Tribune. "As many times as you can, hit him. And even then, it might not be enough."

It turns out, there's a common theme when you look at the Patriots' home playoff losses over the years: They come against great defenses. The 2009 Ravens beat the Patriots in New England because of their fourth-ranked defense by DVOA. The 2010 Jets beat the Patriots in New England because of their fifth-ranked defense by DVOA. The 2009 Ravens sacked Brady three times. The 2010 Jets sacked Brady five times. 

The Jaguars fit the mold. They can do what the 2009 Ravens and 2010 Jets did. Heck, we should probably put the 2007 and '11  Giants into that group. They sacked Brady seven times in two Super Bowl wins.

The Jaguars finished this regular season with the second-most sacks (55 -- one behind Pittsburgh). After registering four sacks in two playoff games, their total rises to 59 or, to put it another way, 3.3 per game. According to Pro Football Focus, the Jaguars generate pressure at a rate of 39.6 percent even though they blitz only 18.7 percent of the time (league average is 29.3 percent). 

Meanwhile, Brady has been under duress on only 31.4 percent of his dropbacks. Brady received a negative grade from PFF in one game this season, a shocking Week 14 loss to the Dolphins. In that game, the Dolphins sacked Brady twice, hit him six times and pressured him on 35.3 percent of his dropbacks, according to PFF.

There's a theme here: Pressure. Not the pressure of the moment, which Brady clearly thrives under, but pressure from 300-pound men.

He should expect to see pressure Sunday. The Jaguars can generate pressure around the edges considering defensive ends Calais Campbell, Yannick Ngakoue and Dante Fowler combined for 34.5 sacks. They can force pressure up the middle considering defensive tackle Malik Jackson racked up eight sacks during the season. They can hit Brady while their impressive secondary, led by Ramsey, forces an under-duress Brady to throw into tight windows. And if Brady makes a mistake, the Jaguars' defense can punish him by actually catching errant passes:

And by turning turnovers into points:

If your response to all of the above is that the Patriots have Tom Brady and the Jaguars have Blake Bortles, I would like to point out that the last quarterback to beat Brady this season was Jay Cutler in that Week 14 game. In truth, it's a fair response and frankly, it's why I think the Jaguars will fall short Sunday. Just don't expect the Patriots to waltz through a defense that finished the season first in DVOA, second in yards allowed, second in points allowed, second in sacks and second in takeaways.

I'm taking the 9.5 points -- even if betting against Belichick feels like a sin.

Sunday, Jan. 21

AFC: Jacksonville Jaguars (3) at New England Patriots (1), 3:05 p.m. ET on CBS

NFC: Minnesota Vikings (2) at Philadelphia Eagles (1), 6:40 p.m. ET on Fox 

Monday odds update

All odds via Sportsline

Jaguars at Patriots (-9.5)

  • The Patriots are 12-5 against the spread. They've been favored in every single game this season.
  • The Jaguars are 10-8 against the spread and 4-2 as the underdog.

Vikings at Eagles (+3.5)

  • The Vikings are 11-6 against the spread and 8-5 as the favorite.
  • The Eagles are also 11-6 against the spread and 4-2 as the underdog.

My picks

Jaguars (+9.5)

I might be taking the 9.5 points, but I'll also bet on the Patriots winning and going back to the place where they belong.

While I think the Jaguars will hang around, keep it interesting and challenge the Patriots, I don't think they'll dispatch them with a surprise attack. The Patriots know the Jaguars are gunning for them, and they're going to eliminate the threat. Let's not get too carried away here.

The Patriots are going to win because they still have the best quarterback in football in Brady, who by the way, for all of his faults under pressure, still led in league in passer rating under pressure (96.6) this season, according to PFF. The Jaguars still have Blake Bortles. Brady still has James White, Dion Lewis, Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks, Chris Hogan and Danny Amendola to throw to -- something we saw him do in the Patriots' victory over the Titans. Bortles doesn't have that kind of supporting staff, though he does have a healthy looking Leonard Fournette. And about that Patriots defense: It has actually been pretty great since the first month of the season.

There's a difference between thinking the Jaguars will cover and the Jaguars will win. The Patriots should be heading back to the Super Bowl barring a barrage of turnovers. Just don't think they can get there by sleepwalking their way through the Jaguars. 

The Jaguars' defense will make it tough on them, but I still can't take Bortles to beat Brady in January in Foxboro. 

Vikings (-3.5)

Maybe it's dangerous -- foolish even -- to pick against the top-seeded Eagles, who are clearly embracing their role as home-field underdogs. In a way, it's kinda scary how their underdog status has transformed this Eagles team:

Still, for a second straight week, I'm picking the Eagles to lose, this time to the Vikings, who I think will cover the spread.

I wasn't all that impressed by the Eagles' 15-10 victory over the Falcons. Their offense under Nick Foles remains anemic and if the Falcons' secondary knew how to catch a football, I would likely be writing about the Falcons' chances to upset the Vikings in Minnesota. But the Falcons' secondary does not know how to catch a football: 

Furthermore, despite all of the talk about the Eagles knowing the Falcons' final fourth-down play from the 2-yard line, we shouldn't lose sight of the fact that they still needed Julio Jones to drop a totally catchable pass to survive that horrible play call:

Sometimes it's better to be lucky than good. Credit to the Eagles for pulling off the upset. Credit to the Eagles for surviving and advancing. Credit to the Eagles for turning this underdog mentality into a rallying cry. But their run will end against a superior Vikings team. It's not that the Eagles are a bad team with Carson Wentz. They're still good! Just not as good as the Vikings.

The Vikings finished the regular season with the better defense (second in DVOA compared to fifth) and offense (fifth in DVOA compared to eighth). The Vikings have the ability to get after Foles, who sports a woeful 34.0 passer rating under pressure, according to PFF. In their thrilling win over the Saints, the Vikings tallied two sacks, three hits and 10 hurries of Drew Brees. They can get after Foles and that should force Foles into some tight-window throws against one of the game's most complete secondaries from Xavier Rhodes to Harrison Smith. 

The Vikings' secondary can catch alright:

The Eagles will no doubt lean on their ground game, but that strategy didn't work out so well for the Saints and their historically great running back duo. The Vikings limited Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram to 68 yards on 21 carries (3.2 yards per carry) Sunday.

This -- the Vikings' defense against the Eagles' offense -- is a total and complete mismatch. Underdogs are a nice feel-good story. But give me the dominant defense. 

Vikings win by a touchdown.