2020 NFL playoff picks, odds: Patriots defy calls for upset, Eagles find a way to win on Wild Card Weekend

What a wild regular season we had in 2019. Tons of quarterback departures started off the year, with Cam Newton, Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck all disappearing into the void by the end of Week 2. And yet, despite three top-shelf quarterbacks falling by the wayside, we ended up with a loaded NFL playoffs slate. The only team who made the dance with less than 10 wins was the Eagles, who emerged victorious in the NFC East.

Of course, regular season records are now irrelevant. It's perfectly fine to reflect on a regular season record -- like, for instance, the fact that I destroyed the competition in against the spread picks for the entire 2019 regular season.

But note that my record, like that of every NFL team, resets at this point. Everyone is 0-0 now. Just because the Eagles didn't win 12 games doesn't mean they can't beat the Seahawks.

Having said that, this is the first time a team has been a short 'dog (less than a touchdown) at home during Wild Card Weekend since after the 2015 season, when the Bengals were short 'dogs to the Steelers. Cincy should have won that game, but, uh, stuff happened.

Over the last 15 years (since the 2004 NFL season), there have been 13 games where a home team in Wild Card Weekend was an underdog. In those games, the home team is a concerning 3-10 straight up, with the only wins coming either in overtime (twice) or via an all-time insane comeback (Andrew Luck over the Chiefs after the 2013 season). Those home teams are 6-6-1 against the spread, however and the under is 9-4 so it's possible we just get a low-scoring close game that features Jason Myers knocking down a field goal to give the Seahawks a sneak-out-of-town victory over Philly.

The point being the assumption that a team with a better regular season record will blow out a team who struggled to close out a bad division is short-sighted. We've seen a team like the 7-8-1 Panthers throttle an opponent on Wild Card Weekend.

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Bills +2.5 at Texans

Unless I am just completely misreading this, the Bills are not considered the trendy underdog pick for Wild Card Weekend. They're getting about 50 percent of the bets so far this week, so I don't think it's the case where everyone is picking them. Maybe people should be picking the Bills though. Buffalo's strengths match up against what the Texans need to have happen for them to win.

Specifically, the Bills' pass defense has been one of the best in the NFL this season. Tre'Davious White is a blossoming superstar cornerback, and he should be able to hang with DeAndre Hopkins. Whether or not Houston gets Will Fuller back could be a major factor here -- Houston averages over 25 points per game when Fuller plays and less than 20 when he's missing. That doesn't fully account for the wide receiver being dinged up for portions of games, either. J.J. Watt says he'll play too, although coming back from a midseason torn pectoral muscle for a wild-card game feels like it could limit his effectiveness.

I think Buffalo will want to run the ball a bunch, eat up clock and turn this into a defensive grinder of a game. If there's one thing Bill O'Brien's shown us this year, is that he'll play along if someone tries to do that. If Houston does, it severely limits their effectiveness on offense and minimizes their scoring opportunities. Josh Allen should be able to take some shots against this Texans secondary. Bills win outright and advance.

Patriots -5 vs. Titans

This is the trendy underdog pick. I've seen plenty of people project the Titans to roll into Foxborough and beat the Patriots, including three of four in our Pick Six Podcast crew, who did it out of the gate on our YouTube Wild Card Weekend Lookahead Lines show:

It's very possible the Titans are just a bad matchup for this New England team. You need to beat the Pats by running the football, and Derrick Henry was the best running back in football over the second half of the season, when he piled up yards and won the rushing title. Ryan Tannehill was a revelation, potentially altering the franchise's course at quarterback for the next several years. He's loose, free and whipping the ball downfield en route to leading the league in passer rating. I love A.J. Brown more than I love some family members, and he deserves more love for Offensive Rookie of the Year than he's getting.

But I've seen this movie before: trendy team who got hot down the stretch goes into New England as a shorter underdog, with a bunch of people picking them to win because the matchups favor them, only to get flexed on by Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. It worked out very poorly for the Chargers and it could work out poorly for the Titans too.

Maybe Tennessee is closer to the 2009 Ravens? They got the Pats on Wild Card Weekend and smashed them with the run game and defense. Brady looked horrific against the Dolphins in the first half and then, with a bye on the line, Belichick's defense couldn't stop Ryan Fitzpatrick, DeVante Parker and Mike Gesicki from marching down the field. There's plenty of reason to be concerned for New England. I don't think they win the Super Bowl. But I'm not going to fade them at home in the playoffs until they show me I should.

Vikings +7.5 at Saints

This is just too many points for me to take the Saints. New Orleans is maybe the hottest offense in football, and no one's looked worse than the Vikings over the past two weeks -- they laid the biggest egg of the year with their Monday night Week 16 loss to the Packers at home, with a chance to keep their division title hopes alive. Horrendous performance. Week 17 featured backups in a loss to the Bears at home, so maybe it wasn't that bad, but to the casual fan Minnesota is limping in.

You will hear people say all week long that this is a revenge game for the Saints for the Minneapolis Miracle. That's a way to identify a storyline instead of looking at the actual matchups involved. And the reality is the Vikings aren't a great offensive matchup for the Saints defense. With Sheldon Rankins and Marcus Davenport, the Saints might be due to give up a 100-yard rusher for the first time in 42 games (playoffs included). I don't think the Saints can completely lock down both Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. Kirk Cousins gets to play at 1 p.m. ET! Dalvin Cook hasn't been limited at all in practice -- there's reason to think he should be able to have a fully healthy game, which would be a major boon for the Vikings' offense. Kevin Stefanski basically abandoned attacking Green Bay with play action without Cook in the game. They don't need to establish the run to make it work, so that was a little odd.

With Cook healthy, the Vikings should renew their play-action focus, and it will result in points. I'm not sure how they stop the Saints from scoring, though: Brees is playing lights out right now and may have benefited from missing six games because his arm doesn't look tired the way it did this time last year. Michael Thomas is the best wide receiver in football right now. This over has been steaming up all week and I expect it to finish north of 50 -- I think this game is played in the 60s, but I would grab Over 49 if you can. In a shootout, take the points with the Vikings before it comes back down.

Eagles +1.5 vs. Seahawks

This is by far the hardest game to figure out of the four playoff matchups. The Seahawks are decimated with injuries but look completely healthy compared to the Eagles, who are trotting out wide receivers that full-time NFL writers haven't heard of. Robert Davis? Please. You only know him if you read Chris Trapasso's Practice Squad Power Rankings. Deontay Burnett prompted a "who was the Eagles' mystery wide receiver?" headline on NBC Sports Philly.

Every single key player for Philly outside of Carson Wentz is on the injury report for this game: Zach Ertz (ribs, back) and Lane Johnson were both limited in practice on Wednesday, while Nelson Agholor and Miles Sanders missed time. That's just the offense! Fletcher Cox and Derek Barnett were both limited for the defensive line, while Sidney Jones, Avonte Maddox and Jalen Mills (aka like 50 percent of the secondary) were limited as well.

So how on Earth can we expect the Eagles to win this game? The answer is actually simple: Seattle refuses to let Russell Wilson cook. The only time Russ is allowed to play without the shackles of a run game is when the Seahawks are in a desperate spot. Otherwise they keep pounding the rock and hope their defense can stop someone. But that defense is not good enough to make stops this year, and the run game isn't dominant. The Eagles are the worst possible matchup for Seattle in that sense, because Philly's run defense is actually good and they have to be torched through the air.

If someone could promise me Brian Schottenheimer was going to show up to Philly and let Russ throw, I'd love the Seahawks here. But the line is fishy given the disparity in talent, and it just feels like the Eagles will find a way to squeak something out in this game.