The Oakland Raiders will be without their starting quarterback for a while.
Derek Carr left the Raiders' loss to the division rival Denver Broncos on Sunday after taking a nasty hit, and coach Jack Del Rio confirmed Monday that Carr has a transverse process fracture in his back. He will miss at least two weeks.
Jack Del Rio said Derek Carr has transverse process fracture. "There's a real good chance he'll miss this week. Typically takes 2-6 weeks.
— Michael Gehlken (@GehlkenNFL) October 2, 2017
Coach Del Rio announced QB Derek Carr has a transverse process fracture.
— OAKLAND RAIDERS (@RAIDERS) October 2, 2017
"It could be as short as two weeks — it could be longer." pic.twitter.com/hJsR7Ld196
JDR: Carr injury was found on a CAT Scan this afternoon. X-rays didn’t show anything. MRI was inconclusive. https://t.co/PCWJjTwaHJ
— Scott Bair (@BairNBCS) October 2, 2017
If that injury sounds familiar, that's because former Dallas Cowboys quarterback (and current CBS broadcaster) Tony Romo, who was on the call for the Raiders-Broncos game, suffered that injury in 2014. Romo missed only one game and played the rest of the season, which was arguably the best of his career. (Memphis Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley suffered the same injury last year and returned to the floor after only 19 days.)
This is the second time in as many seasons the Raiders will be without Carr for multiple weeks. He was knocked out of their playoff run last year after breaking his leg in Week 16. Matt McGloin and Connor Cook filled in, with Cook ultimately losing the Raiders' playoff opener to the Houston Texans.
EJ Manuel will fill in for Carr while he is out this time around, as he did on Sunday. Manuel completed 11 of 17 passes for 106 yards and an interception that came on a last-ditch comeback drive. The Raiders host the Ravens and Chargers over the next two weeks before traveling to Kansas City to face the Chiefs on Thursday night in Week 7. They then have a 10-day break before squaring off with the Bills in Week 8, and they get the Dolphins in Week 9 before taking a Week 10 bye.
Oakland came into the season with sky-high hopes but is now behind both Kansas City and Denver in the division and will be without the foundation of its offense for several weeks. This is likely a huge blow to their season unless Carr makes the lower end of that two-to-six-week timetable.
Let's say he does make the low end of that timeline, but the Raiders decide against rushing him back for the Thursday night game against the Chiefs. How does that affect their chances in those games? Our friends at SportsLine ran the simulation:
| Raiders | With Carr | No Carr | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs. Ravens | 70% | 58% | -12% |
| vs. Chargers | 72% | 62% | -10% |
| vs. Chiefs | 39% | 28% | -11% |
| Go 3-0 | 20% | 10% | -10% |
| Go 0-3 | 5% | 11% | 6% |
| Wins | 1.8 | 1.5 | -0.3 |
| Win % | 60% | 50% | -10% |
Applying those projections to the Raiders' chances of winning the division and/or making the playoffs gives us an even clearer picture of the potential impact on their season.
| Raiders | Win | Win % | Division | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before | 8.4 | 52.5% | 9.1% | 39.1% |
| Carr out 3 weeks | 8.1 | 50.6% | 6.5% | 31.5% |
| Impact | -0.3 | -1.9% | -2.6% | -7.6% |
A 7.5 percentage-point drop isn't nothing, but it's also not a disaster in the grand scheme of things. The Raiders can thank the thin AFC field beyond the top couple teams for that, as there are current only four teams with a record above .500 and six teams tied with Oakland at 2-2.
