Falcons vs. Saints odds: 2019 NFL picks, Week 10 predictions from advanced computer model

An NFC South battle is on tap between the New Orleans Saints and the Atlanta Falcons at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. New Orleans is 7-1 overall and 4-0 at home, while Atlanta is 1-7 overall and 0-4 on the road. New Orleans is 6-2 against the spread this season and is averaging 375.3 yards per game on offense, the 13th-best mark in the NFL. Atlanta, meanwhile, is 2-6 against the spread but features an explosive aerial attack, averaging 316.8 yards per game through the air, the most in the league. New Orleans is favored by 13.5-points in the latest Saints vs. Falcons odds, while the Over-Under is set at 51.5. Before entering any Falcons vs. Saints picks, you'll want to see the NFL predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NFL picks since its inception four years ago. It has nailed its recent top-rated NFL picks, entering Week 10 of the 2019 NFL schedule on a strong 28-17 run that dates back to last season. It's also on an incredible 90-60 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season, The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch for the third year in a row on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 96 percent of CBS Sports office pool players. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has simulated Saints vs. Falcons 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it's also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

The model has taken into account that New Orleans ran circles around Arizona two weeks ago, and the extra yardage (457 yards vs. 244 yards) paid off. The Saints were the clear victors by a 31-9 margin over Arizona. Running back Latavius Murray was the offensive standout against the Cardinals, rushing for 102 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries.

Meanwhile, it was a hard-fought contest, but Atlanta had to settle for a 27-20 loss against Seattle in its last outing. Atlanta got a solid performance out of wide receiver Julio Jones, who caught ten passes for 152 yards; unfortunately, it just wasn't enough for the win. For the season, Jones has hauled in 50 receptions for 712 yards and four touchdowns. 

Two defensive stats to keep in mind before Sunday's kickoff: New Orleans' defense enters this NFC South matchup giving up just 84.3 yards per game on the ground, good for fourth best in the league. Less enviably, Atlanta is stumbling into the contest with the fourth most touchdowns allowed in the NFL, having given up 28 on the season.

So who wins Saints vs. Falcons? And which side of the spread cashes in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Falcons vs. Saints spread you need to jump on, all from the computer model that has crushed its NFL picks.

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