NFL odds, picks for Week 11: Advanced computer model loves Patriots, Chiefs

The NFL's 11th weekend will attract bets from average Joes to professional bettors.

The Minnesota Vikings are 2.5-point favorites over the red-hot Los Angeles Rams, the New Orleans Saints are 7.5-point favorites over the Washington Redskins and the Philadelphia Eagles are six-point favorites over the Dallas Cowboys in an NFC East showdown that has already seen plenty of line movement.

With so many eye-popping games and so many NFL odds on the move, you'll want to know what SportsLine's advanced computer model is picking.

SportsLine's Projection Model went an amazing 174-80-2 on straight-up NFL picks last season -- better than all 98 experts tracked by NFLPickWatch -- every single one.

SportsLine computer picks also would have won over 96 percent of CBS Sports Office Pool Manager leagues that made straight-up NFL picks last season.

It's fresh off a week in which it went 10-4 on straight-up picks. It nailed the Falcons' huge victory over the Cowboys. It also was all over the Vikings (-1.5) winning and covering against the Redskins with room spare, and it already called the Steelers covering against the Titans on Thursday Night Football.

With Week 11 here, the computer simulated every matchup 10,000 times and came up with some surprising results.

One team SportsLine's proven model is all-in on: the New England Patriots, who are seven-point favorites over the Oakland Raiders in a neutral-site game in Mexico City. The model likes the Pats to win by a final of 30-19 that will easily cover the spread.

The Pats haven't skipped a beat with receiver Chris Hogan out of the lineup. With tight end Rob Gronkowski healthy and a stable of running backs that has been further boosted by the emergence of the versatile Rex Burkhead, New England has rolled its way to five straight victories, including a convincing 41-16 blowout on the road against Denver last week.

New England's defense has been night-and-day since the start of the season. After giving up an average of 32 points over the first four weeks, the Patriots have clamped down. During their five-game win streak, they've held opponents to an average of 13 points.

Another team it loves: the Kansas City Chiefs (-10). Don't let the double-digit line fool you. SportsLine's projection model is predicting an easy 27-14 win and cover for Kansas City over the New York Giants. The line opened at -13, but has since fallen three points.

The Giants may be without No. 1 WR Sterling Shepard, who is reportedly suffering from migraines. If he can't go, the Giants, who have already lost Odell Beckham and Brandon Marshall this season, would be down to Tavarres King and Roger Lewis as their starting wideouts.

The Chiefs are winning outright in 78 percent of simulations. SportsLine's model says Chiefs RB Kareen Hunt will pile up well over 100 yards from scrimmage, while Giants QB Eli Manning has a better chance of throwing an interception than a touchdown.

And in a surprise, the model is calling for the Detroit Lions (-3) to win by three times the spread on the road at Chicago in a 23-14 decision. It projects that Matthew Stafford will go for well over 250 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears' 23rd-ranked passing defense. The Lions are winning this game straight up 72 percent of the time and covering the spread in 63 percent of simulations.

It's surprising because the Bears have played tough defense at home. They had a chance to upset the Falcons at Soldier Field, beat the Steelers in overtime, stayed within a field goal of the Vikings, and beat the Panthers by two touchdowns.

The model also is calling for a breakout team with playoff aspirations to experience a crushing loss this Sunday. Find out who it is over at SportsLine.

What NFL picks can you make with confidence in Week 11? Check out the NFL odds below and then visit SportsLine to see which NFL teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations, plus see which side of the big Eagles-Cowboys game is a virtual lock, all from the model that would have won 96 percent of football pools last season, and get NFL picks from 16 experts.

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-9.5, 52.5)
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Giants (+10, 45)
Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (+2, 38.5)
L.A. Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-2, 45.5)
Arizona Cardinals at Houston Texans (-2.5, 37.5)
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (+3, 40.5)
Tampa Bay Bucs at Miami Dolphins (+1.5, 43.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (+7, 37)
Buffalo Bills at L.A. Chargers (-6.5, 41)
Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 38)
New England Patriots vs. Oakland Raiders (+7, 54.5)
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+6, 48)
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5, 45.5)

Our Latest Stories