NFL Week 16 odds, picks: Dolphins now favorites over Raiders plus other reactions from Week 15

Check out how the Week 16 NFL lines have changed based on what happened this past Sunday

So, what did we learn in Week 15? First off, the Pittsburgh Steelers are even worse off than we first thought. After winning their first 11 contests, they fell to the Washington Football Team, then the Buffalo Bills and finally, Ryan Finley and the Cincinnati Bengals? Wow, this team is in danger of blowing a huge lead in the division. Speaking of big upsets, the winless New York Jets scored their first victory over the Los Angeles Rams, but with that, they also lost the potential right to the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The quarterback situation in Philadelphia is also becoming more interesting. While the Eagles lost to the Arizona Cardinals, Jalen Hurts put up yet another impressive performance in his second-ever start. The NFC East as a whole also remains interesting, as the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants are now just one game back from that infamous postseason spot. We saw plenty of line movement on Monday, so let's take a look at some game lines. 

On Friday, we took a look at the lookahead lines for Week 16, which William Hill Sportsbook had available for anyone paying attention beyond the current week. Now that we have officially entered Week 16, we have seen some line movement. Below, we'll take a look at the biggest movers of the week from the lookahead numbers and examine why the line has moved and whether there's value in fading said move. But first, here's the current spread, the line that re-opened on Sunday evening and the lookahead number for every matchup. All NFL odds come courtesy of William Hill. 

Week 16 line snapshot

Matchup	Current	Reopen	Look
MIN at NO	NO -7	NO -7	NO -6.5
SF at AZ	AZ -4.5	AZ -4	AZ -2.5
TB at DET	TB -9	TB -7	N/A
MIA at LV	MIA -2.5	MIA -2.5	LV -1.5
ATL at KC	KC -10.5	KC -11	KC -11.5
NYG at BAL	BAL -10.5	BAL -9.5	BAL -9.5
CIN at HOU	HOU -9	HOU -9	HOU -8.5
CLE at NYJ	CLE -9.5	CLE -10.5	CLE -10.5
IND at PIT	OFF	PIT -2.5	PIT -2.5
CAR at WAS	WAS -2.5	WAS -2	WAS -2.5
CHI at JAX	CHI -7.5	CHI -7.5	CHI -4.5
DEN at LAC	LAC -3	LAC -3	LAC -2.5
LAR at SEA	SEA -1.5	SEA -2.5	SEA -1
PHI at DAL	PHI -1.5	PHI -1	PK
TEN at GB	GB -3.5	GB -4	GB -4
BUF at NE	BUF -7	BUF -6.5	BUF -4

Dolphins at Raiders

Current: MIA -2.5 | Reopen: MIA -2.5 | Lookahead: LV -1.5

Why it moved: The Raiders were upset by the Los Angeles Chargers on "Thursday Night Football," but more importantly, starting quarterback Derek Carr was knocked out with a groin injury that could force him to miss some time. Marcus Mariota played fairly well in his stead, as he passed for 226 yards, one touchdown, one interception and also rushed for another touchdown, but it remains to be seen how effective this Raiders team can be with him as the starter instead of Carr. As for the Dolphins, they are rolling right now. Tua Tagovailoa moved to 6-1 against the spread as the starter as the Dolphins downed the New England Patriots, 22-12. 

Fade the move? I'm rolling with this line change, and I will be placing some money on the Dolphins to cover right now just in case this line increases again. Miami is an NFL-best 11-3 against the spread this season. No other team has covered 10 games. The Dolphins have also covered four straight games while the Raiders have failed to cover the spread over their last four games. 

Bears at Jaguars

Current: CHI -7.5 | Reopen: CHI -7.5 | Lookahead: CHI -4.5

Why it moved: The Bears defeated the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, 33-27. Mitchell Trubisky again played fairly well, as he completed 15 of 21 passes for 202 yards, one touchdown and one interception. The real story, however, was David Montgomery's huge game, as he rushed for 146 yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries. The Bears have now scored at least 30 points in three straight games for the first time in seven years, and it's been quite the turnaround for Matt Nagy's squad. The Jaguars, on the other hand, continue to crawl to the finish line, and were blown out by Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens this past Sunday, 40-14. 

Fade the move? I wish I had grabbed the Bears on the lookahead at -4.5, but I think I'm still going to take the Bears at -7.5. The Jaguars are in great position to hold onto the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, they just have to continue to lose. With their victory on Sunday, the 1-13 Jets are no longer the sole possessors of the worst record in the NFL. Not only that, but the Jaguars have an easier strength of schedule, which puts them in the driver's seat for the No. 1 overall pick. All year long, it appeared the Jets would be the future NFL home of Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Now, that may not happen. 

Bills at Patriots

Current: BUF -7 | Reopen: BUF -6.5 | Lookahead: BUF -4

Why it moved: The Bills looked like they were becoming the one contender in the AFC that could challenge the Kansas City Chiefs, and they furthered that narrative with a 48-19 beatdown of the Denver Broncos on Saturday night. Josh Allen is looking better and better each week, the defense is finally playing well and they somewhat got the ground game going last week as well. As for the Patriots, they have officially been eliminated from the playoffs for the first time since 2008, and Cam Newton hasn't led a touchdown drive in two full games. 

Fade the move? New England's lackluster loss to Miami wasn't an outlier, it has become more of a trend. Just a couple of weeks ago on "Thursday Night Football," the Patriots suffered an embarrassing 24-3 loss to the Rams. To put that into perspective, the Rams just gifted the previously winless Jets their first win of the season! There isn't just one reason the Patriots have been struggling this season. The defense cannot stop the run, the wide receiving corps hasn't been consistent and then of course Newton hasn't looked like himself. It's also possible we won't have to worry about Newton's play anymore, as Jarrett Stidham could see a bump in playing time.