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Well guys, we made it. After watching 17 weeks of football, we're now heading into the final week of the regular season, and I have to say, it's been a great year: We've laughed together (at the Raiders), we've complained about the officials together, and now, we're about to witness the miracle of berth together. Playoff berth.

Thirty-one years ago, the Jaguars, Panthers and Texans didn't even exist, but all three of them could make the playoffs this year if Carolina clinches the NFC South this week. All three of those teams making the playoffs in the same season has happened exactly zero times in NFL history, so like I said, we could be witnessing a miracle. 

There are only two playoff spots up for grabs in Week 18, but it should still be a crazy week because NONE of the seven seeds have been clinched in the AFC and only one has been clinched in the NFC (The Packers have clinched the seventh seed). I am expecting a fully bonkers weekend in the NFL, which would mark just the second time in the last nine years that the NFL has gone "fully bonkers" during the final week of the season. 

Alright that's enough stalling, let's get to the picks. Oh, and just to warn you, if I miss every pick this week, it's because the final week of the season is almost always the most difficult week to predict due to the fact that I have no clue who will be playing for either team. I have no idea which teams will be benching their starters, I have no idea if bad teams have mentally checked out and what I'm trying to say is that the entire week is a drunken crapshoot.

All Week 18 NFL betting lines via DraftKings Sportsbook 

NFL Week 18 picks

Carolina (8-8) at Tampa Bay (7-9)

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, Fubo -- try for free)

This was so supposed to be a winner-take-all game for the division title, but the NFC South can't do anything right, so that won't be case here. The Falcons threw a wrench into things on Monday night by beating the Rams. The win by Atlanta means that even if the Buccaneers WIN this game, the Panthers could still win the division. If the Bucs beat the Panthers and then the Falcons beat the Saints on Sunday, that would create a three-way tie at 8-9 and the Panthers would win the tiebreaker. 

The Falcons have turned into a third wheel that no one wanted around, but now, the Panthers are kind of happy that they're around. I've seen enough episodes of "Elimidate" to know that this isn't going to work out well for the Buccaneers. 

Anyway, the Panthers-Bucs game should be interesting because these teams are about equal. 

If you haven't been paying attention to the Panthers this season, which I'm pretty sure describes most people, the most surprising thing about them is that they've actually looked fairly decent. For most teams, looking "fairly decent" isn't exactly a compliment, but when most people thought you were going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL, then looking "fairly decent" is definitely a good thing.

As a matter of fact, Baker Mayfield would probably give up his left arm to be playing "fairly decent" football right now. Through the first half of the season, Mayfield looked like an MVP candidate, but he has slowly lost his mojo since Tampa Bay's Week 9 bye. As we all know, the easiest way to get your mojo back would be to find a time machine and travel back to 1960 to retrieve it from Dr. Evil, but I'm not sure Mayfield is going to be able to do that before Saturday. 

In his first nine games of the season, Mayfield averaged 243.6 passing yards per game with 16 touchdown passes compared to just two interceptions. In his past seven games, Mayfield has averaged just 185.4 passing yards per game with just nine touchdown passes and EIGHT interceptions. To make matters worse, the Bucs just aren't good enough to win when Mayfield is struggling. The team is 0-8 this year in any game where he's thrown an interception, so he's going to need to avoid turning the ball over if the Bucs want to have any chance to win. 

The Bucs don't need Mayfield to be great, they just need him to not turn the ball over. When these two teams met back in Week 16, Mayfield looked like he was going to lead a possible game-winning drive, but then he threw an interception in Carolina territory with just under one minute left to play to seal the Panthers' 23-20 win. 

I don't trust mojo-less Mayfield, but I also don't trust Bryce Young (who threw for just 54 yards in Week 17). However, I do trust Tampa Bay's home-field advantage this week. The Panthers are 0-5 when playing in Tampa this decade and since this feels like a coin-flip game, that's enough to get me to pick the Bucs. 

PICK: Buccaneers 23-20 over Panthers

Seattle (13-3) at San Francisco (12-4)

Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (ABC/ESPN, Fubo -- try for free)

I don't know how this is possible, but here we go again: For the second straight year, Sam Darnold will be playing in Week 18 with the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC on the line, and let's just say, everyone in Seattle will be hoping that this year's game goes much better for Darnold than it did last year for him with Minnesota. 

Darnold was so bad last year that I'm unofficially blaming him for why this game wasn't flexed to Sunday night. I'm guessing that Darnold's performance in the Sunday night game last year scared the NFL away from putting him in that spot again, so the league decided to go with Ravens-Steelers. In last year's game, Darnold went out in Week 18 and completed just 43.9% of his passes for 166 yards and zero touchdowns in a 31-9 loss to the Lions. 

This year, the stakes are equally high: The winner of this game will take home the NFC West title and the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC. That means the winner will get a bye in the opening round of the playoffs while the loser will be forced to hit the road for the wild card round as either the fifth seed or the sixth seed. 

The top seed is a huge advantage and if you need proof, just consider this: Since the NFL expanded the playoff field to 14 teams in 2020, here's what the seed breakdown has been for Super Bowl participants: 

  • No. 1 seed: Five Super Bowl teams
  • No. 2 seed: One team
  • No. 3 seed: One team
  • No. 4 seed: Two teams
  • No. 5 seed: One team
  • No. 6 seed: Zero
  • No. 7 seed: Zero

The No. 1 seed has made it to the Super Bowl 50% of the time while every other seed has been a crapshoot. 

As for the actual game, I feel like it's going to come down to who plays better out of Brock Purdy and Darnold. That might seem obvious, but all you have to do is look at each's team passing defense to realize why the QB battle will probably decide the game. The 49ers are surrendering 235.6 yards per game through the air, which is the eighth-worst number in the NFL. On paper, that seems like something Darnold should be able to take advantage of, but nobody uses paper anymore, so we can't put any stock in that. 

Darnold looked like an MVP candidate through the first half of the season, but he's been slightly off his game since Week 11. Let's check out how each QB has done since then: 

QB stats since Week 11Passing yards per gameTD passes per gameINTs per gameTotal Rushing TDs

Sam Darnold

226.9

1.1

1.1

0

Brock Purdy

242.3

2.7

0.8

3

Basically, Purdy is currently on an absolute heater and Darnold is starting to look like the same Darnold we saw late in the season last year. 

I think I've already mentioned this roughly 10 times this year, but I'm going to mention it again: The 49ers were my preseason pick to win the NFC West and to get the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC and I have no choice but to ride them to the finish line here. Me from four months ago would punch present-day me in the face if I went against my own preseason pick and I don't want to get punched in the face. 

PICK: 49ers 27-24 over Seahawks

Tennessee (3-13) at Jacksonville (12-4)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo -- try for free)

Every year, there seems to be at least one huge upset in Week 18, but it won't be coming in this game. With a win here, the Jaguars will clinch the AFC South, but if they lose, then the Texans could sneak in and steal the division with a win over the Colts. 

Unfortunately for Houston, there will be no sneaking and there will be no stealing because the Jaguars are not going to blow this. The Jags are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now: They've won seven straight games and I'm starting to think that they might be the best team in the AFC. 

This team has already beaten the Chargers, 49ers, Texans and Broncos this season. They also beat the Panthers back in Week 1, so if Carolina ends up making the playoffs, that means that Jags will have beaten five of the 13 other teams in the playoff field. 

I've spent every minute for the past five seasons trying to decide whether Trevor Lawrence is a bust, and after watching him play this year, I think I can finally say that the answer is an unequivocal no. Lawrence looks like the real deal and I'm starting to think the only reason he struggled early on is because playing for Urban Meyer set his career back three years. 

The Jags have won their last three homes games by an AVERAGE of 24.7 points per game and those wins came against solid teams (Broncos, Chargers and Colts). I was going to pick them to win by 24.7 points here, but I was told that's not practical, so my only prediction here is that Jacksonville is going to roll. 

PICK: Jaguars 31-13 over Titans

L.A. Chargers (11-5) at Denver (13-3)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

If the Chargers had won in Week 17, the AFC West title would have been on the line in this game, but that didn't happen, which might actually end up working out for the best if you're Los Angeles. 

The Chargers are one of the most beat-up teams in the NFL right now and since the division title isn't on the line, this feels like a perfect spot for Jim Harbaugh to rest his starters, and Harbaugh agrees, because he's already announced that several starters won't play, including Justin Herbert. The fact that Harbaugh is benching his starters is somewhat surprising because he's an old-school coach who has probably never rested a starter in his life. However, I'm guessing that at some point this week, Harbaugh remembered that Herbert has been playing FOUR STRAIGHT GAMES WITH A BROKEN HAND, so benching him was the only move that made sense this week. 

It's not just Herbert who needs a week off. The Chargers are also beat up at running back and on the offensive line and at almost every other position. This team needs a week off more than anyone. I realize the Chargers are still playing for seeding, but they're not going to beat anyone in the playoffs if everyone on their roster is hurt, so benching everyone makes sense. 

On the Broncos' end, they have everything to play for: If Denver pulls off a win here, the Broncos will clinch the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. So I'm basing my pick off the fact that the Broncos will be extremely motivated and the Chargers will be keeping Herbert on the bench 

PICK: Broncos 27-13 over Chargers

Arizona (3-13) at L.A. Rams (11-5)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox, Fubo -- try for free)

Let me start off here by saying, I have no idea what the Rams are going to do in this game. The Rams have already clinched a playoff spot, so this game only matters for seeding purposes. By the time the Rams take the field on Sunday, they'll know what this game means. If the Seahawks beat the 49ers, then the Rams will be able to clinch the fifth seed with a win. However, if the 49ers win, then the Rams will be locked into the sixth seed no matter what happens in this game. 

After the Rams' loss to the Falcons on Monday night, Sean McVay said he's going to play his starters, but I'm not sure if I believe him. I just don't think they're going to play if the Rams have nothing to play for. Also, I'm not sure they're going to play even if the Rams do have something to play for. 

In the past, McVay has shown that he's way more concerned with getting his team healthy than where it's going to be seeded in the playoffs. Last year, the Rams could have clinched the No. 3 overall seed in the NFC with a win in the final game of the season, but instead, McVay decided to bench his starters in Week 18 knowing the Rams would probably lose and get stuck with the fourth seed, and that's exactly what happened. 

The logic for McVay to bench his starters is pretty simple: The Rams are one of the most dangerous teams in the NFL when they're fully healthy and I think McVay is going to want a fully healthy team heading into the playoffs, so I won't be surprised if he sits some of his key starters in this game.

That being said, getting the fifth seed would mean a wild card game against the winner of the NFC South while getting the sixth seed would mean facing the Bears or Eagles. The fifth seed definitely seems like the friendlier option. 

So the Rams will be playing for seeding, and then there's the Cardinals, who have nothing to play for except pride, and I'm not sure how much of that they have left after losing eight straight games. The Rams might send out Matthew Stafford and the starters or they might send out Jimmy Garoppolo and the backups, but to be honest, I don't care who it is. I'm taking the Rams either way. 

PICK: Rams 31-20 over Cardinals

Baltimore (8-8) at Pittsburgh (9-7)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)

It's almost fitting that these two teams are playing, because both fan bases have spent half the season calling for their coach to be fired. Maybe the losing coach in this game should just agree to step aside. So how do Ravens fans feel about John Harbaugh? Let's check social media. 

And this is why most NFL coaches stay off social media. 

Anyway, it's not just Harbaugh, Steelers fans seem to have similar feelings for Mike Tomlin. 

I have a feeling that the losing coach in this game is probably going to be trending on social media with the word "Please fire" next to his game. 

So who will that loser be? Great question. Glad you asked. 

If you want to beat the Ravens, you have to be able to throw the ball, but I have no idea how the Steelers are going to be able to do that. Their most explosive offensive player is DK Metcalf, but he won't be on the field, because he'll be serving out the final week of his two-game suspension. The Steelers also won't have Darnell Washington, who BROKE HIS ARM against the Browns. 

Metcalf leads the team in receiving yards and Washington is fourth, so Aaron Rodgers won't have two of his top four pass catchers. The Ravens are 2-6 this season when they surrender 250 passing yards or more, but it's hard to see Rodgers getting to that number when his top two receivers this week will be a tight end (Pat Freiermuth) and a running back (Kenneth Gainwell). In the Steelers' Week 14 win over the Ravens, Rodgers did top 250 yards with a 284-yard performance, but 148 of that went to Metcalf. 

Not only will the Steelers be missing their most explosive offensive player, but it's looking very likely that their best defensive player (T.J. Watt) is also going to be on the sideline. 

Although the Steelers will be missing several key players, the Ravens could be forced to play this game without LAMAR JACKSON, so it kind of all evens out. Jackson is currently dealing with a back injury that kept him out of Baltimore's win over the Packers in Week 17. 

With Jackson out, the Ravens did what any smart team would do and they completely designed their game plan around Derrick Henry. I have no idea if Jackson is going to play, but as I said last week, even if he does play, he's not going to be 100%. If Jackson is only 75% or 80%, then Tyler Huntley might actually be the better option. 

The Ravens were my preseason pick to win the AFC North, and like I said with the 49ers, I can't back out on them now. If the Ravens are going to lose, I'm going down with the ship. 

PICK: Ravens 23-20 over Steelers

NFL Week 18 picks: All the rest

Falcons 24-17 over Saints 
Vikings 27-13 over Packers
Cowboys 30-20 over Giants
Bengals 24-16 over Browns
Texans 23-13 over Colts
Bears 27-20 over Lions
Chiefs 19-16 over Raiders
Eagles 20-17 over Commanders
Patriots 34-24 over Dolphins
Bills 19-16 over Jets  

Last Week

Best pick: Last week, I predicted that the Eagles would shock the Bills in Buffalo, and guess what happened? The Eagles shocked the Bills in Buffalo. Now, did I know that Jalen Hurts was going to forget how to play football in the second half? Of course, I did. He does that at least twice a season. Hurts went 0-for-7 and threw for zero yards over the final two quarters against Buffalo and that wasn't even the FIRST TIME he had thrown for zero yards in the second half of a game this season. Hurts also threw for zero yards in the second half of a Week 4 win over Tampa Bay. 

Despite the win, Eagles fans weren't happy with how the offense played in the second half, and I have to say, there is no team in the NFL better than the Eagles at winning a big game, but still giving their fans something to complain about. 

Worst pick: Last week, I picked the Steelers to beat the Browns because I figured that there was no way in the world that Pittsburgh would lose with a chance to clinch the AFC North, but the joke was on me. What I didn't take into account is that the Steelers always seem to choke against bad teams. And when I say always, I mean always.  

The Steelers choke so often against bad teams that they're now in the record book for it. Not only have the Steelers struggled against bad teams since 2020, but they're also 0-4 in the playoffs in that same span. That's not ideal. I feel like the amount of "Fire Mike Tomlin" tweets is going to increase exponentially if Pittsburgh loses on Sunday night. 

Finally, if you guys have ever wondered which teams I'm actually good at picking, I've got that very important information right here. Here's a quick look at my best and worst teams when it comes to picking games this year

Teams I'm 14-2 picking this year (straight up): Raiders
Teams I'm 13-3 picking this year (straight up): Seahawks, Jets, Titans, Colts
Longest winning streak: 49ers (Eight straight games picked correctly)

Teams I'm the worst at picking: Chiefs (6-10), Panthers (7-9), Lions (7-9), Falcons (7-9)
Longest losing streak: Ravens (Five straight games picked incorrectly)

Finally, if your New Year's resolution for 2026 is to sign your friends up for random newsletters, you can do that right now by signing them up for our daily NFL newsletter here at CBSSports.com. I'm in charge of it and if you want to make their week better by signing them up, all you have to do is click here, hit the 'Pick Six' icon and enter their email address. 

Picks Record

Straight up in Week 17: 9-7
SU overall: 157-98-1

Against the spread in Week 17: 9-6-1
ATS overall: 123-130-3

You can find John Breech on Facebook or Twitter, and if he's not doing one of those things, he's probably sitting in a corner somewhere trying to figure out which teams will actually be benching their starters this week so he doesn't miss all his picks.