Seahawks vs. Rams TNF preview, Tua Tagovailoa benched and NFL Week 16 picks

Welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

On the first day of Christmas, the NFL gave to me, Matthew Stafford trying to throw for 340. Nope, it's not Christmas, but it's going to feel like it if you're an NFL fan. That's because Thursday's game between the Rams and Seahawks will be kicking off a stretch where there will be at least one NFL game airing in eight of the next 12 days.

Between now and Dec. 29, the only days that WON'T have an NFL game are Dec. 19, Dec. 23, Dec. 24 and Dec. 26, so I'd go ahead and plan to get your Christmas shopping done on those first two days and then plan to return anything that needs to be returned on Dec. 26. And to be honest, you might not want to plan anything on those first two days, because there will be plenty of college football to watch, like the College Football Playoff, which starts Friday night.

Anyway, this game is going to have huge playoff implications, and we'll be breaking down everything in today's newsletter. Plus, we'll look at what the Dolphins might do with Tua Tagovailoa now that he's been benched, and we'll be making some picks for Week 16.

As always, here's your reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. Let's get to the rundown.

1. Thursday night preview: Picks and best bets for Rams at Seahawks

I'm not sure if I'm exaggerating when I say this, but this might be the biggest Thursday night game in NFL history. The Rams are traveling to Seattle for a game that will mark the first time ever that two teams with at least 11 wins will play each other on a Thursday. There will be a lot on the line: The winner of the game will have the inside track to winning the NFC West and earning the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC.

The Rams (11-3) likely won't have Davante Adams, which could certainly hurt their passing attack, but the Seahawks (11-3) will also be missing at least one key player: Left tackle Charles Cross has already been ruled out. The Seahawks will be turning to Josh Jones at left tackle, a player who hasn't started a game for any team since 2023.

Here's one reason why each team should be feeling confident going into the game:

Why the Rams can win: The Rams have Matthew Stafford, and if he can have a big game, they'll likely win. The Seahawks are 0-2 this year when they surrender more than 240 passing yards, but 11-1 when they hold their opponent under that number. (The only loss there actually came to the Rams.) With Davante Adams likely out, the Rams are going to need several players besides Puka Nacua to step up. Last week, that was Colby Parkinson, who caught five passes for 75 yards and two touchdowns. Stafford also needs to be smart and take care of the ball. The Rams are just 2-2 this year in any game where Stafford has thrown an interception, but 9-1 when he doesn't turn the ball over.
Why the Seahawks can win: Sam Darnold has a tendency to struggle in these big games, so if the Seahawks are going to win, they're going to need a huge performance from their defense. The good news for the Seahawks is that their defense has answered the call in almost every game this year. In 14 games, the Seahawks have held their opponent under 300 yards a total of 11 times. In the three games where their opponent topped 300 yards, the Seahawks have gone just 1-2. The last time these two teams played, the Rams totaled just 249 yards, but Seattle ended up losing because Darnold threw four interceptions. The defense rattled Stafford while holding the Rams' rushing attack in check. If they can put together a similar performance, they should win... as long as Darnold doesn't have another four-interception game.

Jared Dubin has a full preview of the game, and you can check that out here.

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook):

ONE QB PROP I LIKE: Sam Darnold OVER 0.5 interceptions (-134): Whenever Darnold is in a big game, it always seems to end with him throwing at least one interception, and of course, we all know what happened the last time he faced the Rams when he threw FOUR interceptions. I don't think he'll throw four here, but I won't be surprised at all if we see him throw one. Darnold has thrown at least one pick in seven of his 14 games this year.
ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Jason Myers OVER 7.5 points (-115): Myers has gone over this number in nine straight games, and it would be a total shock if that streak doesn't continue here. Not only is the Seahawks' kicker on pace to make the most field goals in a single season in NFL history, but he's also in range of breaking LaDainian Tomlinson's single-season record for points scored. (Myers has 153 and Tomlinson's record is 186.) He's only 33 points behind LT, which means he'll have to average 11 points per game for the final three weeks. That's completely possible for a kicker who has averaged 10.9 points per game this season.

If you're wondering how my props are doing this year, I'm 32-32 (13-16 on kicker props and 18-15 on all other props). Now, it's time for some picks.

PICKS FOR 'TNF'

Pete Prisco's pick: Seahawks 29-24 over Rams
Tyler Sullivan's pick: Rams 23-21 over Seahawks
Jordan Dajani's pick: Rams 24-20 over Seahawks
Jared Dubin's pick: Rams 20-16 over Seahawks
My pick: Rams 27-24 over Seahawks

We've got more picks for the game on our CBSSports.com predictions page.

2. NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 16: Four teams can get in just by winning

There are 14 playoff spots in the NFL, and as we head into Week 16, only TWO of them have been clinched (the Rams and Broncos). However, that number could be going WAY up this week, and that's because there are a total of nine teams that could punch their tickets into the postseason.

We could cover every scenario for all nine teams, but that would get a little complicated, so we're just going to take a look at the four teams who can clinch a playoff spot simply by winning this week, and that includes one of the teams playing Thursday night.

SEAHAWKS (11-3)
How they can clinch: If the Seahawks beat the Rams, they'll officially clinch a playoff berth.

PATRIOTS (11-3)
How they can clinch: The Patriots play the Ravens on Sunday night, and they can clinch a playoff spot with a win. They could actually clinch a spot before they even take the field if the Raiders can somehow beat the Texans, but that's probably not going to happen.

EAGLES (9-5)
How they can clinch: It's been 21 years since a team won the NFC East in back-to-back seasons, but that drought can end this week if the Eagles beat the Commanders. With a win on Saturday, the Eagles would clinch the division title and at least one home game in the playoffs.

49ERS (10-4)
How they can clinch: The 49ers have quietly put together a strong season, and they can clinch a playoff spot by winning on Monday night against the Colts. They could actually clinch a spot before that if the Lions lose to the Steelers on Sunday. With the 49ers and Seahawks just one win away from clinching, there's a good chance the NFC West will be sending three teams to the postseason.

Remember, there are a total of nine teams that could clinch this week, and if you want to check out all 27 of the clinching scenarios that are out there, you can do that here.

3. NFL Week 16 picks: Bears and Ravens both get big wins

It's now time for everyone's favorite part of the newsletter, which is where I round up three NFL writers -- Pete Prisco, Jordan Dajani and Tyler Sullivan -- and we try to impress you by nailing our picks. Last week, Prisco made a fool out of all of us by going 11-5 against the spread. Dajani went 10-6. The only positive thing I can say about my week is that I beat Sullivan.

Anyway, you probably know how our predictions work by now: I'll give you one Week 15 pick from each writer and then link you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you can click over and check out all of their Week 15 selections.

Pete Prisco -- Ravens (-3) 30-26 over Patriots. "The Patriots are coming off a tough loss at home against the Bills and now must head out to play a Ravens team that shut out the Bengals last week. The Ravens are also more desperate in the playoff race, which matters. Lamar Jackson wins it as the Patriots drop their second straight." Prisco's full Week 16 picks are here.
Tyler Sullivan -- Bears (-1.5) 28-26 over Packers. "These two rivals played a tight matchup at Lambeau Field just a few weeks ago, and I think Williams will be much better at Soldier Field this time around. The Bears QB has a better passer rating at home compared to his production on the road (99.2 vs. 81.6), along with a superior yards per attempt average (7.35 vs. 6.53) and TD-INT ratio (11-1 vs. 10-5). Meanwhile, losing Micah Parsons for the season due to a torn ACL is a gut punch for the Packers defense." Sullivan's full Week 16 picks are here.
Jordan Dajani -- Buccaneers (-3) 26-20 over Panthers. "You never know what you're going to get with the Panthers. Bryce Young could throw for 400 yards in an upset victory or look completely helpless. The Buccaneers are on a horrific skid, having lost five out of their past six games, but I'm going to take Tampa Bay for two reasons: One, I think the Bucs are simply the better team. ... Plus, this Carolina defense just allowed the Saints to rack up 337 yards and struggled to get Tyler Shough and Co. off the field." Dajani's full slate of picks will be released on Friday, but you can get a preview here.
John Breech -- Broncos (-3) 27-24 over Jaguars. "Bo Nix has gotten hot over the past few weeks: He's averaging 282.5 passing yards per game over the past four weeks, and the Jaguars are 2-3 this season when their opponent throws for more than 280 yards. The Broncos are a perfect 7-0 at home this year and they have a lot to play for: If they go 2-1 in their final three games, they'll clinch the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC no matter what happens in any other game. I feel like the Jags will keep this close, but the Broncos end up winning a thriller." You can find the rest of my Week 16 picks here.

For more Week 16 NFL picks, you can check out our CBSSports.com picks page.

4. Tua Tagovailoa gets benched: What it means for the Dolphins' future

It's official: Tua Tagovailoa has been benched. Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel revealed Wednesday that rookie Quinn Ewers will start Sunday against the Bengals and that Zach Wilson will serve as the backup, which means Tagovailoa has been demoted to third string. Ouch.

The big question now is whether Tagovailoa will return to Miami in 2026. The quarterback signed a four-year, $212.4 million extension in June 2024, and due to that deal, he's under contract with the Dolphins through 2028.

So what are Miami's options with Tagovailoa? Jared Dubin broke that down, and to be honest, none of them are good.

Cut him. If the Dolphins decide to release Tagovailoa, they would take on a monstrous $99.2 million dead cap hit, which would be the largest dead cap hit in NFL history. The Dolphins could soften that blow by cutting him with a post-June 1 designation, which would split the dead cap hit over two seasons. In that scenario, they would take a hit of $67.4 million in 2026 and $31.8 million in 2027. The Broncos went the post-June 1 route when they decided to cut Russell Wilson heading into the 2024 season. They took dead cap hits of $53 million (2024) and $32 million (2025) and still somehow managed to make the playoffs in both seasons, so that might be the blueprint that Miami should look to copy.
Trade him. The Dolphins could try to trade Tagovailoa, but the problem here is that he has $54 million in guaranteed salary and bonuses coming his way in 2026, so any team that acquires him would have to pay him that money. The guy just got benched, so it's doubtful any team would be willing to take on his entire contract. The Dolphins could offer to pay some of that money to make a trade happen, and they might be inclined to do that, because the dead cap hit of making a trade before June 1 would be just $45.2 million. The Dolphins could trade him after June 1, which would lead to a dead cap hit of just $13.4 million for 2026, but if they went that route, they'd have to carry his contract until then, so they'd have his contract hanging over their head during free agency.
Keep him on the roster for one more season. From a financial standpoint, the easiest thing would be to keep him on the roster for the 2026 season. If the Dolphins cut him after the 2026 season, the dead cap hit would be just $31.8 million, which is a lot more manageable than $99.2 million. But if Tagovailoa stays and you keep him on the bench, things will get awkward if the new starter struggles at all.

As you can see, there's no easy decision here. With Tagovailoa getting benched, it's hard to imagine him returning to the Dolphins next season, but if they do get rid of him, there is likely going to be a record-setting dead cap hit involved, so this will certainly be a situation worth watching. You can read more about Tagovailoa's benching here.

5. Ranking the 10 most important games left on the NFL schedule

NFL: NOV 28 Bears at Eagles — Getty Images

There are only three weeks left in the NFL regular season, which means there are only 48 games remaining on the 2025 schedule. Some of those games are slightly more important than other games, so Zach Pereles decided to go through and rank the 10 most important games over the next three weeks.

Let's check out the top five games in his ranking. One thing you'll notice is that every game the Bears play from here on out is important.

1. Rams at Seahawks (Week 16). Week 16 kicks off with one of the biggest games of the year. Though the Rams have already clinched a spot and the Seahawks are essentially a shoo-in at this point, this game will go a huge way toward determining the No. 1 seed in the NFC and everything that comes with it: home-field advantage until the Super Bowl and a first-round bye.

2. Packers at Bears (Week 16). To illustrate how close the NFC is, the Packers fell from the No. 2 seed to the No. 7 seed last week with one loss. With a loss this week, the Bears could experience the exact same fall, depending on other games around the conference.

3. Steelers at Lions (Week 16). An inter-conference matchup like this one, being ranked this high, might be a surprise. But this is a huge one for both 8-6 teams. The Steelers would love to keep their one-game cushion or even build a two-game lead over the Ravens, who have the difficult task of hosting the Patriots this weekend. ... The Lions, meanwhile, are in essentially a must-win scenario. They're in a tough spot trying to catch the current No. 7 seed Packers. But if they can pull closer to Chicago or potentially a non-Packers NFC wild card contender, they'd have better chances.

4. Bears at 49ers (Week 17). The 49ers just quietly keep going about their business and are one game back of the Rams for the No. 1 seed. They are in a very strong position for a wild card spot at the very least, and they could be in position for much more depending on how the next weeks go.

5. Lions at Bears (Week 18). Let's say over the next two weeks, the Lions are able to crawl within one game of the Bears. That could make this Week 18 game a win-and-in game, because Detroit already has the head-to-head advantage. The Lions will be big fans of the Packers and 49ers over the next few weeks.

Pereles ranked a total of 10 games, and if you want to see his full list, you can do that here.

6. Extra points: Rams dealing with Puka Nacua controversy

It's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.

Rams dealing with Puka Nacua controversy. The Rams receiver made some headlines this week after making some controversial comments during a live stream. First, Nacua ripped NFL refs: He said that they're the "worst" and that they make bad calls on purpose to get on TV (you can read his full comments here). Nacua also promised a touchdown celebration that could be viewed as antisemitic, and you can read more about that here. The Rams would probably prefer not to be dealing with any of this on a day where they're playing their biggest game of the season.
Bears eyeing Indiana for possible relocation. The Bears have spent the past few years looking for a spot to build a new stadium, and after coming up empty in Illinois, the team is now contemplating the possibility of building a new stadium in Northwest Indiana. You can read more about this intriguing development here.
Chiefs hoping Mahomes will be ready for Week 1. Since Patrick Mahomes' injury happened so late in the season, there's no guarantee he's going to be ready for the start of the 2026 season. Recovering from an ACL tear generally takes about nine months, but Mahomes might be able to pull it off faster, according to Rick Burkholder, the Chiefs' vice president of sports medicine and performance. "He's so regimented in what he does. He's in here at 6 a.m. He's the last guy out at night. He'll take the rehab like that," Burkholder said this week, via ESPN. "When you add up all the little things, that allows the player to get back faster. They don't heal up faster, they just get back to performance faster."
Joe Burrow makes some interesting comments about his future in Cincinnati. Burrow was asked Wednesday if he's ever thought about the possibility of not being the quarterback in Cincinnati, and he gave an answer that probably wasn't very reassuring to Bengals fans. "You think about a lot of things," Burrow said. So what exactly did Burrow mean by that? Glad you asked. I broke down his entire press conference here.