The New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens have formulated quite the out-of-division playoff rivalry, haven't they?
And in terms of perennial regular- and postseason success since 2000, they've arguably been the two finest teams in football. Six of the past eight AFC title games have featured either the Patriots or the Ravens or both.
These two AFC titans square off in Gillette Stadium for the fourth time in the playoffs since January 2010 with a ticket to this year's AFC title bout on the line.
Here are the five advanced stats you undeniably must know before locking into this one.
Quarterback comparison
Tom Brady is the better all-time quarterback, but Joe Flacco has morphed from above-average gunslinger to "January Joe" over the past few postseasons. Instead of comparing the two starters from a historic perspective, let's take a peek at how the two have performed this season.
The numbers are much closer than some would think.
| Comparing the signal-callers | ||||||
| Quarterback | Accuracy % | Avg. Depth of Target | Pressure % | Under Pressure Accuracy % | PA Rating | 20+ Yard Accuracy % |
| Tom Brady | 74.9 | 8.5 yards | 28.7 | 61.6 | 104.9 | 33.3 |
| Joe Flacco | 74.4 | 9 yards | 31.6 | 56.5 | 95.7 | 50 |
The noticeable differences lie in the under pressure statistics and the accuracy with which each throws the deep ball. Unsurprisingly, Brady has been more efficient with pressure mounting, and the cannon-armed Flacco has been more accurate down the field. However, note that Brady was pressured slightly less often than Flacco in 2014.
Now take a look at how the two have performed in their two most recent playoff contests against each other.
| Comparing the signal-callers | ||||||
| Quarterback | Completions | Attempts | Completion % | Total Yards | TDs | INTs |
| Joe Flacco | 43 | 72 | 59.7 | 546 | 5 | 1 |
| Tom Brady | 51 | 90 | 56.6 | 559 | 1 | 4 |
From an analytical standpoint, this quarterback matchup is nearly a draw, but Flacco has clearly been the better quarterback in the past two January meetings.
The Dean Pees connection
Baltimore defensive coordinator Dean Pees joined the Ravens staff in 2010 as a linebackers coach following a stint from 2004 to 2009 with the Patriots.
Actually, Pees' final game as the Patriots defensive coordinator under Bill Belichick was the first of Baltimore's playoff victories over New England, a 33-14 stunner in Foxborough on Jan. 10, 2010.
Less than three weeks later, John Harbaugh hired Pees and the veteran coach was promoted to the team's defensive coordinator spot in 2012 when Chuck Pagano took the head coach job with the Indianapolis Colts.
Since then, Pees, who we can imagine knows Brady pretty darn well, has coached against the Patriots three times, and New England's future Hall of Fame quarterback has compiled the following cumulative stat line.
| Brady vs. Pees | ||||||
| Quarterback | Completions | Attempts | Completion % | Average Yards | TDs | INTs |
| Tom Brady | 71 | 121 | 58.6 | 265.6 | 3 | 2 |
Those figures aren't bad. Then again, the Patriots are 1-2 in those outings, including the AFC Championship Game in January 2013 when Brady went 29 for 54 for 320 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.
Even in New England's 41-7 beatdown of Baltimore last season Brady had a pedestrian line of 14 for 26 with 172 yards and one touchdown.
No, Pees hasn't proven he has the magic formula to stop Brady, but his familiarity with the star signal-caller is a luxury most teams don't have when facing the Patriots.
Greatest connection ever?
When you watch Brady complete a pass, or, let's say a touchdown pass, to Rob Gronkowski, you need to know you're likely witnessing the most prolifically efficient quarterback-to-pass-catcher connection since 1998 ... and probably all time.
I write 1998 because Pro Football Reference's quarterback-to-pass-catcher archives only go back to that year, but notice how outrageous Brady has been throwing in Gronkowski's direction compared to other studly combos (includes playoffs):
| Top combinations | ||||||
| Connection | Completion % | Total Yards | TDs | INTs | Yards/Attempt | QB Rating |
| Tom Brady to Rob Gronkowski | 67.6 | 4,674 | 56 | 11 | 9.6 | 127.6 |
| Tom Brady to Randy Moss | 60.3 | 3,254 | 41 | 13 | 9.2 | 113.8 |
| P. Manning to Marvin Harrison | 61.4 | 13,609 | 114 | 59 | 8.1 | 95 |
| Tony Romo to Terrell Owens | 54.6 | 3,216 | 35 | 19 | 8.5 | 93.1 |
| Tony Romo To Dez Bryant | 64.3 | 5,001 | 49 | 11 | 9.2 | 115.6 |
| Drew Brees to Jimmy Graham | 64.8 | 5,031 | 54 | 19 | 8 | 105.5 |
| M. Stafford to Calvin Johnson | 58.1 | 6,625 | 45 | 21 | 9.6 | 99.6 |
| Matt Ryan to Julio Jones | 63.9 | 4,688 | 28 | 9 | 9.8 | 107.8 |
That 127.6 passer rating is almost unfair, and the rate at which the two have hooked up to score touchdowns in downright ridiculous. Brady has thrown a touchdown to Gronk every 8.6 targets. For perspective, Jimmy Graham has scored a touchdown every 11.6 attempts from Drew Brees.
Using history as a predictor, if Brady targeted Gronkowski 17 times in this one, the massive tight end would score two touchdowns.
Hey, Bill ... use Shane Vereen more
Gronkowski isn't the only super-efficient Patriot. Nope, Shane Vereen has actually cruised well below the radar since truly becoming a facet of New England's offense in 2012, his second professional season.
Since the start of that year, 50 running backs have received at least 300 touches from scrimmage. During that time period until now, Vereen boasts the league's top yards-per-touch figure.
| Efficient backs | |||||
| Rank | Player | Games | Touches | Yards | Yards/Touch |
| 1 | Shane Vereen | 37 | 312 | 1873 | 6.003205128 |
| 2 | Jamaal Charles | 46 | 895 | 5049 | 5.641340782 |
| 3 | Justin Forsett | 41 | 367 | 2054 | 5.596730245 |
| 4 | Danny Woodhead | 35 | 332 | 1853 | 5.581325301 |
| 5 | C.J. Spiller | 40 | 592 | 3246 | 5.483108108 |
Without question, Vereen's smaller sample size has helped him, but there's no way to get around his effectiveness. Despite his sizable lead atop that chart, only teammate LeGarrette Blount, who's 34th in yards per touch by the way, has been given fewer touches per game than Vereen's 8.43. While Blount adds an inside-the-tackles power dimension to New England's running game, the former California Bear has simply been more impressive on a per-touch basis.
No, I didn't forget about Justin Forsett. He has dazzled this season behind Baltimore's road-grading offensive line.
Super safeties
The Ravens' secondary has labored through the season with a multitude of injuries, while the Patriots have emerged as one of the soundest secondaries in the league behind the play of Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner.
While the disparity in cornerback quality is a key storyline in this game, you must not forget about the safeties on each side.
Will Hill has experienced off-field issues during his time in the NFL, but there's no doubting his ability. Devin McCourty made the move from cornerback to safety and hasn't looked back en route to a pair of All-Pro distinctions (2010 at corner, 2013 at safety).
They've been extremely stingy this season, there's no doubting that.
| Stingy in the secondary | ||
| Rank | Player | Coverage Snaps Per Catch Allowed |
| 1 | George Iloka | 51.8 |
| 2 | Will Hill | 43.4 |
| 3 | Ha Ha Clinton-Dix | 42.4 |
| 4 | Da'Norris Searcy | 42.1 |
| 5 | Earl Thomas | 41.7 |
| 6 | Rahim Moore | 40.5 |
| 7 | Devin McCourty | 39.1 |
| 8 | Thomas DeCoud | 38.5 |
| 9 | Robert Blanton | 36.1 |
| 10 | Louis Delmas | 36 |
While McCourty's the back end of the Patriots' deep and talented secondary contingent, Hill has quietly held everything together for the Ravens' defensive backfield this season. With the way Torrey Smith and Steve Smith stretch the field and with Gronkowski's tendency to run down the seam, Hill and McCourty will play huge roles in this contest.
Prediction: Ravens 24, Patriots 20
The wild-card round went as expected, but there's bound to be an upset in these playoffs. The Ravens match up so well with the Patriots because they're exceptionally well-coached and can win the trench battle on both sides of the football. In a grind-it-out effort, I like Forsett to have a solid outing on the ground, and Baltimore's pass-rush to make a few more plays than New England's.
