NFL Week 3 anytime touchdown scorer top 100 cheat sheet: Jacobs, Jeanty, Evans lines move massively
The Inside the Lines team uses its proven NFL model to identify our best sportsline player projections vs the best available odds to build our best bets.
The SportsLine Projection Model was developed and powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of our team's picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free.
Best anytime touchdown bets methodology
We track the percentage of simulations in which each player scores a rushing, receiving, punt return, kickoff return, interception return or fumble return touchdown. We then compare that to the consensus betting line's implied percentage and look for the ones where our percentage is at least as good as those odds.
We DON'T rely on straight betting value based on SIM% - ODDS%. We are not robots. We feel, we bleed, we love football.
We select our favorite bets based on situational factors, relevant history and BEST PRICE. If we have a 58% forecast and every major book has -135 to -145, we may not have a ton of value, but perhaps our forecast assumes the player's backup is active when he's highly questionable. We know if that backup is inactive, our percentage jumps to 67%. We'll pounce on that action at the best price at the time of publishing (-135 in this example).
Josh Jacobs -140 (DraftKings)
This 58.3% implied line is clearly based on the assumption that his 11 game streak can't possibly continue. But I think DraftKings is playing into the gambler's fallacy, ironically enough. The model gives him a 77% chance of scoring and he's had at least a rushing TD in 70% of his games as a member of the Packers.
The line could also reflect how well Cleveland defended Derrick Henry and the Ravens' running game. Jim Schwartz decided he had no chance to stop BOTH the Ravens through the air and ground so went ALL IN on stopping Henry. This resulted in Lamar Jackson, despite a shaky start, having 4 pass TDs, 0 INTs and he now has the highest passer rating in history. I think Schwartz won't try this same 'sell out to stop the run' strategy vs the Packers and Jordan Love.
The best line is now up to -180 on FanDuel. Just a reminder that you really need to lock in with our Inside the Lines Blog to make sure you are getting the best prices.
Ashton Jeanty +105 (DraftKings)
The Chargers' excellent defense combined with Geno Smith playing perhaps his worst game since his career revival resulted in Jeanty having just 44 rushing yards. But I was actually impressed by his nearly 4.0 yards per carry in this situation because he trucked a Chargers' safety for an 8 yard run and had a nice spin move on another carry. He showed he could do some of the same things he did in the Mountain West at the NFL level.
I also liked that he lined up as a WR for a snap or two and perhaps the Raiders are looking to use him as a receiver since he was one when he first went to Boise State. The odds are based on his having just 81 rushing yards and 3 receiving yards in his first 2 games combined. Washington was not good vs the run last season allowing 5.0 ypc and they just allowed 135 yards (4.5 ypc) to the Packers. If Jayden Daniels misses the game it could result in more time of possession and plays for Jeanty and increase his chances of having his first explosive run away TD.
The best price is still on DraftKings but it's not going to cost -105.
Mike Evans +155 (DraftKings)
I've taken Evans each week so far and he has yet to deliver even though Baker Mayfield has gone over his 1.5 TDs both weeks. Emeka Egbuka is getting plenty of targets, but with Chris Godwin out (and likely out again this week), Evans is still THE MAIN GUY at WR with 19 targets in the first two weeks. The last time Evans went 3 games without a TD was 12/31/2023 to 1/15/2024.
This line is all the way down to +115 on DraftKings. Again, for the love of god, track our picks on our blog so you can get the best prices when they are available.
These are just a fraction of our best bets, all free on our new blog. We will be providing our team's personal best bets for every NFL game.
Complete ATD Cheatsheet
These are our Top 100 ATD scorers with the lines updated 9/19 at around 12 pm EST. Last week's Top 10 performed very well with the SURPRISING exception of Kyren Williams, conceding a goal line rush to Blake Corum, and Derrick Henry not getting the ball on the 1 foot line on first down.
| POS | PLAYER | ATD% | ATD_P |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | 78% | -200, 66.7% (DK) |
| RB | James Cook | 78% | |
| RB | Josh Jacobs | 76% | -180, 64.3% (FD) |
| RB | Christian McCaffrey | 75% | -230, 69.7% (MGM) |
| RB | Derrick Henry | 74% | o0.5 |
| RB | Jonathan Taylor | 70% | o0.5 |
| QB | Jalen Hurts | 69% | -140, 58.3% (DK) |
| RB | De`Von Achane | 68% | |
| RB | Chuba Hubbard | 67% | -105, 51.2% (DK) |
| RB | Saquon Barkley | 62% | o0.5 |
| WR | Malik Nabers | 59% | +155, 39.2% (MGM) |
| RB | Ashton Jeanty | 59% | -105, 51.2% (MGM) |
| RB | Jahmyr Gibbs | 58% | -120, 54.5% (FAN) |
| RB | Javonte Williams | 58% | -110, 52.4% (MGM) |
| WR | Deebo Samuel | 58% | +205, 32.8% (DK) |
| WR | Terry McLaurin | 57% | +215, 31.7% (DK) |
| RB | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | 56% | -109, 52.2% (CS) |
| RB | Kyren Williams | 55% | -105, 51.2% (DK) |
| RB | Nick Chubb | 55% | +105, 48.8% (FAN) |
| WR | Emeka Egbuka | 55% | +155, 39.2% (DK) |
| WR | Rome Odunze | 55% | +155, 39.2% (DK) |
| RB | Bucky Irving | 55% | o0.5 |
| WR | Nico Collins | 55% | +145, 40.8% (FAN) |
| WR | Mike Evans | 53% | +120, 45.5% (DK) |
| TE | Zach Ertz | 52% | +230, 30.3% (CS) |
| WR | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 52% | +135, 42.6% (DK) |
| RB | Chase Brown | 51% | o0.5 |
| RB | James Conner | 51% | - |
| TE | Tucker Kraft | 51% | +200, 33.3% (DK) |
| WR | Justin Jefferson | 50% | +130, 43.5% (DK) |
| WR | Keon Coleman | 50% | |
| WR | Brian Thomas Jr. | 48% | +155, 39.2% (DK) |
| WR | DeVonta Smith | 48% | +240, 29.4% (FD) |
| WR | Drake London | 47% | +155, 39.2% (FD) |
| WR | A.J. Brown | 46% | +190, 34.5% (FD) |
| QB | Daniel Jones | 45% | +200, 33.3% (MGM) |
| RB | Kenneth Walker III | 45% | o0.5 |
| WR | DK Metcalf | 45% | +170, 37% (DK) |
| WR | Ja`Marr Chase | 45% | o0.5 |
| WR | Marvin Harrison Jr. | 45% | +165, 37.7% (FD) |
| RB | David Montgomery | 42% | o0.5 |
| RB | Rachaad White | 41% | +275, 26.7% (FD) |
| WR | CeeDee Lamb | 41% | o0.5 |
| RB | Tony Pollard | 40% | o0.5 |
| RB | Roschon Johnson | 40% | +1100, 8.3% (FD) |
| WR | DeAndre Hopkins | 40% | +380, 20.8% (DK) |
| WR | George Pickens | 40% | o0.5 |
| RB | Cam Skattebo | 39% | +190, 34.5% (DK) |
| RB | Zach Charbonnet | 39% | o0.5 |
| WR | Calvin Austin III | 39% | +350, 22.2% (FAN) |
| WR | Jalen Nailor | 39% | +380, 20.8% (FD) |
| WR | Michael Pittman Jr. | 39% | +230, 30.3% (DK) |
| RB | J.K. Dobbins | 38% | o0.5 |
| WR | Tee Higgins | 38% | +230, 30.3% (FD) |
| RB | Kareem Hunt | 37% | +220, 31.2% (FD) |
| WR | Puka Nacua | 37% | o0.5 |
| WR | Zay Flowers | 37% | o0.5 |
| RB | Rhamondre Stevenson | 36% | o0.5 |
| WR | Quentin Johnston | 36% | +220, 31.2% (FD) |
| RB | Breece Hall | 35% | o0.5 |
| WR | Davante Adams | 35% | o0.5 |
| RB | Bhayshul Tuten | 34% | +250, 28.6% (FD) |
| RB | D`Andre Swift | 34% | o0.5 |
| RB | Jaylen Warren | 34% | o0.5 |
| WR | Alec Pierce | 34% | +380, 20.8% (FD) |
| WR | Hunter Renfrow | 34% | +375, 21.1% (MGM) |
| WR | Xavier Worthy | 34% | o0.5 |
| TE | Isaiah Likely | 33% | o0.5 |
| WR | Courtland Sutton | 33% | o0.5 |
| WR | Elic Ayomanor | 33% | +330, 23.3% (DK) |
| WR | Jameson Williams | 33% | +250, 28.6% (FAN) |
| WR | Keenan Allen | 33% | o0.5 |
| WR | Romeo Doubs | 33% | o0.5 |
| WR | DJ Moore | 33% | o0.5 |
| RB | Jordan Mason | 32% | o0.5 |
| TE | Jonnu Smith | 32% | +310, 24.4% (DK) |
| TE | Tyler Warren | 32% | o0.5 |
| WR | Jakobi Meyers | 32% | o0.5 |
| WR | Jauan Jennings | 32% | o0.5 |
| WR | Rashod Bateman | 32% | o0.5 |
| WR | Tyreek Hill | 32% | |
| RB | Travis Etienne | 31% | o0.5 |
| WR | Adam Thielen | 31% | +600, 14.3% (FD) |
| WR | Garrett Wilson | 31% | o0.5 |
| WR | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 30% | o0.5 |
| WR | Michael Wilson | 30% | - |
| WR | Tyquan Thornton | 30% | +333, 23.1% (MGM) |
| TE | Trey McBride | 30% | o0.5 |
| RB | Omarion Hampton | 29% | o0.5 |
| WR | Josh Downs | 29% | +310, 24.4% (MGM) |
| WR | Khalil Shakir | 29% | |
| WR | Tre Tucker | 29% | +350, 22.2% (DK) |
| TE | Brock Bowers | 28% | o0.5 |
| TE | Mark Andrews | 28% | o0.5 |
| TE | Sam LaPorta | 28% | o0.5 |
| TE | Travis Kelce | 28% | o0.5 |
| WR | Darnell Mooney | 28% | o0.5 |
| WR | Elijah Moore | 28% | |
| RB | Najee Harris | 27% | o0.5 |
| WR | Calvin Ridley | 26% | o0.5 |
| WR | KaVontae Turpin | 26% | +460, 17.9% (FD) |
| QB | Patrick Mahomes | 26% | +360, 21.7% (FD) |
| WR | Ladd McConkey | 26% | o0.5 |
| WR | Marquise Brown | 26% | o0.5 |
| WR | Marvin Mims | 26% | +350, 22.2% (FD) |
