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USATSI

The New York Yankees look to complete their second sweep of the Kansas City Royals this season when the teams meet at Kauffman Stadium on Thursday for the finale of their three-game series. New York, which won all three meetings between the clubs at Yankee Stadium in April, opened this set with a 10-2 rout and followed with a 6-3 triumph on Wednesday. The Yankees are a major league-best 20-13 on the road this year, while the Royals have lost 10 of their last 13 at home.

Will Warren (4-3, 5.34 ERA) will make his 14th start of the campaign for New York and the first of his career against Kansas City. The 25-year-old right-hander is 1-1 in his last two turns but has surrendered 11 runs on nine hits and eight walks across 6 2/3 innings in those outings.

The Royals counter with Seth Lugo (3-5, 3.46), who is winless in his last four starts. The 35-year-old righty is 5-3 with a 3.00 ERA against the Yankees in his career but was tagged for four runs on four solo homers over 6 2/3 frames in a loss earlier this season.

Sportsbooks have set the total strikeout player props for both Warren (Over -138, Under +103) and Lugo (Over -119, Under -109) at 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates both pitchers as 4.5-star plays on its five-star scale.

In addition to Warren and Lugo, the model has found other good value on Thursday's eight-game schedule, as there is another pitcher strikeout player prop that the model has rated at 4.5 stars. Here they are:

Will Warren Over 4.5 strikeouts (-138) vs. Royals (7:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.7 strikeouts

Warren has gone Over this number in 10 of his 13 starts this season and eight of his last nine. The only time he failed to do so during the current stretch was on May 31, when he lasted only 1 1/3 innings against the Dodgers in Los Angeles. Warren has fanned at least five batters in six of his eight turns on the road this year and both of his turns away from home in 2024. The rookie registered six strikeouts across 5 1/3 frames in a victory over the Boston Red Sox in his last outing.

Seth Lugo Over 4.5 strikeouts (-119) vs. Yankees (7:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.5 strikeouts

Lugo is coming off a no-decision against the Chicago White Sox in which he recorded five strikeouts over five innings. It marked the sixth time in his last nine starts that he went Over this number. Lugo fanned four batters across 6 2/3 frames in his first turn against the Yankees this season but registered 10 strikeouts over seven frames of his start versus the American League East leaders last September. He has fared well in his career against reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge, who has recorded just one hit -- a single -- and struck out five times in 14 at-bats versus Lugo.

Andrew Heaney Over 3.5 strikeouts (-150) vs. Cubs (8:05 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.7 strikeouts

Heaney has recorded at least four strikeouts in two of his last four starts after four consecutive turns in which he registered three or fewer. The 34-year-old left-hander fanned five batters over six innings in a no-decision against the Philadelphia Phillies in his last outing. Heaney did not strike out a batter across 4 2/3 frames in his start against the Cubs in April but racked up six or more in three of his four turns before that, and the model believes he'll be closer to that form in his first career start at Wrigley Field on Thursday.